Search results for "Normal Distribution"
showing 10 items of 135 documents
Sequentially Forecasting Economic Indices Using Mixture Linear Combinations of EP Distributions
2021
This article displays an application of the statistical method moti- vated by Bruno de Finetti's operational subjective theory of probability. We use exchangeable forecasting distributions based on mixtures of linear com- binations of exponential power (EP) distributions to forecast the sequence of daily rates of return from the Dow-Jones index of stock prices over a 20 year period. The operational subjective statistical method for comparing distributions is quite different from that commonly used in data analysis, because it rejects the basic tenets underlying the practice of hypothesis test- ing. In its place, proper scoring rules for forecast distributions are used to assess the values o…
Discrete Time Portfolio Selection with Lévy Processes
2007
This paper analyzes discrete time portfolio selection models with Lévy processes. We first implement portfolio models under the hypotheses the vector of log-returns follow or a multivariate Variance Gamma model or a Multivariate Normal Inverse Gaussian model or a Brownian Motion. In particular, we propose an ex-ante and an ex-post empirical comparisons by the point of view of different investors. Thus, we compare portfolio strategies considering different term structure scenarios and different distributional assumptions when unlimited short sales are allowed.
Predictive value of the Merrill-Palmer-R Scale applied during the first year of live
2016
Resumen basado en el de la publicación Títulos, resumen y palabras clave en inglés y español El valor predictivo de una escala de desarrollo utilizado durante el primer año de vida es de gran interés en la planificación de las intervenciones tempranas. El valor predictivo de un instrumento es la probabilidad de acertar el diagnóstico de trastorno o retraso en el desarrollo de un niño. Se analizaron las puntuaciones de escala Merrill-Palmer-R (MP-R) en una muestra de 291 niños menores de un año de la Comunidad Valenciana. A pesar de que no se distribuyen normalmente las puntuaciones de la escala MP-R en esta muestra, los resultados predichos eran buenos. Además, las puntuaciones de desarroll…
The size of Simes’ global test for discrete test statistics
1999
Abstract To increase the power of the Bonferroni–Holm procedure several modified Bonferroni procedures have been proposed (for example, Hochberg, 1988. Biometrika 75, 800–802; Hommel, 1988. Biometrika 75, 383–386), which are based on Simes’ global test (Simes, 1986. Biometrika 73, 751–754). By several simulation studies which, in particular, considered multinormal test statistics, it has been suggested that the Simes test is a level α test. However, an exact proof exists for only few situations one of them assuming independence of test statistics. We studied the behaviour of Simes’ test for discrete test statistics. Due to discreteness one can expect more conservative decisions whereas depe…
Response models for mixed binary and quantitative variables
1992
SUMMARY A number of special representations are considered for the joint distribution of qualitative, mostly binary, and quantitative variables. In addition to the conditional Gaussian models and to conditional Gaussian regression chain models some emphasis is placed on models derived from an underlying multivariate normal distribution and on models in which discrete probabilities are specified linearly in terms of unknown parameters. The possibilities for choosing between the models empirically are examined, as well as the testing of independence and conditional independence and the estimation of parameters. Often the testing of independence is exactly or nearly the same for a number of di…
Una solucion bayesiana a la Paradoja de Stein
1982
If we are interested in making inferences about the square norm of the mean in a multivariate normal model, the usual uniform prior for the mean is not sound, as revealed by Stein in his 1959 work. This paper studies in what sense this prior must be modified by using the maximization of missing information procedure (Bernardo, 1979)
The affine equivariant sign covariance matrix: asymptotic behavior and efficiencies
2003
We consider the affine equivariant sign covariance matrix (SCM) introduced by Visuri et al. (J. Statist. Plann. Inference 91 (2000) 557). The population SCM is shown to be proportional to the inverse of the regular covariance matrix. The eigenvectors and standardized eigenvalues of the covariance, matrix can thus be derived from the SCM. We also construct an estimate of the covariance and correlation matrix based on the SCM. The influence functions and limiting distributions of the SCM and its eigenvectors and eigenvalues are found. Limiting efficiencies are given in multivariate normal and t-distribution cases. The estimates are highly efficient in the multivariate normal case and perform …
Inference based on the affine invariant multivariate Mann–Whitney–Wilcoxon statistic
2003
A new affine invariant multivariate analogue of the two-sample Mann–Whitney–Wilcoxon test based on the Oja criterion function is introduced. The associated affine equivariant estimate of shift, the multivariate Hodges-Lehmann estimate, is also considered. Asymptotic theory is developed to provide approximations for null distribution as well as for a sequence of contiguous alternatives to consider limiting efficiencies of the test and estimate. The theory is illustrated by an example. Hettmansperger et al. [9] considered alternative slightly different affine invariant extensions also based on the Oja criterion. The methods proposed in this paper are computationally more intensive, but surpri…
Bayesian hierarchical Poisson models with a hidden Markov structure for the detection of influenza epidemic outbreaks
2015
Considerable effort has been devoted to the development of statistical algorithms for the automated monitoring of influenza surveillance data. In this article, we introduce a framework of models for the early detection of the onset of an influenza epidemic which is applicable to different kinds of surveillance data. In particular, the process of the observed cases is modelled via a Bayesian Hierarchical Poisson model in which the intensity parameter is a function of the incidence rate. The key point is to consider this incidence rate as a normal distribution in which both parameters (mean and variance) are modelled differently, depending on whether the system is in an epidemic or non-epide…
Estimates of Regression Coefficients Based on the Sign Covariance Matrix
2002
SummaryA new estimator of the regression parameters is introduced in a multivariate multiple-regression model in which both the vector of explanatory variables and the vector of response variables are assumed to be random. The affine equivariant estimate matrix is constructed using the sign covariance matrix (SCM) where the sign concept is based on Oja's criterion function. The influence function and asymptotic theory are developed to consider robustness and limiting efficiencies of the SCM regression estimate. The estimate is shown to be consistent with a limiting multinormal distribution. The influence function, as a function of the length of the contamination vector, is shown to be linea…