Search results for "Normal"
showing 10 items of 2571 documents
Bayesian hierarchical Poisson models with a hidden Markov structure for the detection of influenza epidemic outbreaks
2015
Considerable effort has been devoted to the development of statistical algorithms for the automated monitoring of influenza surveillance data. In this article, we introduce a framework of models for the early detection of the onset of an influenza epidemic which is applicable to different kinds of surveillance data. In particular, the process of the observed cases is modelled via a Bayesian Hierarchical Poisson model in which the intensity parameter is a function of the incidence rate. The key point is to consider this incidence rate as a normal distribution in which both parameters (mean and variance) are modelled differently, depending on whether the system is in an epidemic or non-epide…
Estimates of Regression Coefficients Based on the Sign Covariance Matrix
2002
SummaryA new estimator of the regression parameters is introduced in a multivariate multiple-regression model in which both the vector of explanatory variables and the vector of response variables are assumed to be random. The affine equivariant estimate matrix is constructed using the sign covariance matrix (SCM) where the sign concept is based on Oja's criterion function. The influence function and asymptotic theory are developed to consider robustness and limiting efficiencies of the SCM regression estimate. The estimate is shown to be consistent with a limiting multinormal distribution. The influence function, as a function of the length of the contamination vector, is shown to be linea…
Large deviations results for subexponential tails, with applications to insurance risk
1996
AbstractConsider a random walk or Lévy process {St} and let τ(u) = inf {t⩾0 : St > u}, P(u)(·) = P(· | τ(u) < ∞). Assuming that the upwards jumps are heavy-tailed, say subexponential (e.g. Pareto, Weibull or lognormal), the asymptotic form of the P(u)-distribution of the process {St} up to time τ(u) is described as u → ∞. Essentially, the results confirm the folklore that level crossing occurs as result of one big jump. Particular sharp conclusions are obtained for downwards skip-free processes like the classical compound Poisson insurance risk process where the formulation is in terms of total variation convergence. The ideas of the proof involve excursions and path decompositions for Mark…
Holt–Winters Forecasting: An Alternative Formulation Applied to UK Air Passenger Data
2007
Abstract This paper provides a formulation for the additive Holt–Winters forecasting procedure that simplifies both obtaining maximum likelihood estimates of all unknowns, smoothing parameters and initial conditions, and the computation of point forecasts and reliable predictive intervals. The stochastic component of the model is introduced by means of additive, uncorrelated, homoscedastic and Normal errors, and then the joint distribution of the data vector, a multivariate Normal distribution, is obtained. In the case where a data transformation was used to improve the fit of the model, cumulative forecasts are obtained here using a Monte-Carlo approximation. This paper describes the metho…
The conditional censored graphical lasso estimator
2020
© 2020, Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature. In many applied fields, such as genomics, different types of data are collected on the same system, and it is not uncommon that some of these datasets are subject to censoring as a result of the measurement technologies used, such as data generated by polymerase chain reactions and flow cytometer. When the overall objective is that of network inference, at possibly different levels of a system, information coming from different sources and/or different steps of the analysis can be integrated into one model with the use of conditional graphical models. In this paper, we develop a doubly penalized inferential procedure for…
Quantum averaging for driven systems with resonances
2000
Abstract We discuss the effects of resonances in driven quantum systems within the context of quantum averaging techniques in the Floquet representation. We consider in particular iterative methods of KAM type and the extensions needed to take into account resonances. The approach consists in separating the coupling terms into resonant and nonresonant components at a given scale of time and intensity. The nonresonant part can be treated with perturbative techniques, which we formulate in terms of KAM-type unitary transformations that are close to the identity. These can be interpreted as averaging procedures with respect to the dynamics defined by effective uncoupled Hamiltonians. The reson…
Modeling Posidonia oceanica growth data: from linear to generalized linear mixed models
2010
The statistical analysis of annual growth of Posidonia oceanica is traditionally carried out through Gaussian linear models applied to untransformed, or log-transformed, data. In this paper, we claim that there are good reasons for re-considering this established practice, since real data on annual growth often violate the assumptions of Gaussian linear models, and show that the class of Generalized Linear Models (GLMs) represents a useful alternative for handling such violations. By analyzing Sicily PosiData-1, a real dataset on P. oceanica growth data gathered in the period 2000–2002 along the coasts of Sicily, we find that in the majority of cases Normality is rejected and the effect of …
Posterior moments and quantiles for the normal location model with Laplace prior
2021
We derive explicit expressions for arbitrary moments and quantiles of the posterior distribution of the location parameter η in the normal location model with Laplace prior, and use the results to approximate the posterior distribution of sums of independent copies of η.
Local Asymptotic Normality for Shape and Periodicity in the Drift of a Time Inhomogeneous Diffusion
2017
We consider a one-dimensional diffusion whose drift contains a deterministic periodic signal with unknown periodicity $T$ and carrying some unknown $d$-dimensional shape parameter $\theta$. We prove Local Asymptotic Normality (LAN) jointly in $\theta$ and $T$ for the statistical experiment arising from continuous observation of this diffusion. The local scale turns out to be $n^{-1/2}$ for the shape parameter and $n^{-3/2}$ for the periodicity which generalizes known results about LAN when either $\theta$ or $T$ is assumed to be known.
Tests of multinormality based on location vectors and scatter matrices
2007
Classical univariate measures of asymmetry such as Pearson’s (mean-median)/σ or (mean-mode)/σ often measure the standardized distance between two separate location parameters and have been widely used in assessing univariate normality. Similarly, measures of univariate kurtosis are often just ratios of two scale measures. The classical standardized fourth moment and the ratio of the mean deviation to the standard deviation serve as examples. In this paper we consider tests of multinormality which are based on the Mahalanobis distance between two multivariate location vector estimates or on the (matrix) distance between two scatter matrix estimates, respectively. Asymptotic theory is develop…