Search results for "Outbreak"

Detection of spatial disease clusters with LISA functions.

2011

Detection of disease clusters is an important tool in epidemiology that can help to identify risk factors associated with the disease and in understanding its etiology. In this article we propose a method for the detection of spatial clusters where the locations of a set of cases and a set of controls are available. The method is based on local indicators of spatial association functions (LISA functions), particularly on the development of a local version of the product density, which is a second-order characteristic of spatial point processes. The behavior of the method is evaluated and compared with Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic by means of a simulation study. It is shown that the LI…

Bayesian hierarchical Poisson models with a hidden Markov structure for the detection of influenza epidemic outbreaks

2015

Considerable effort has been devoted to the development of statistical algorithms for the automated monitoring of influenza surveillance data. In this article, we introduce a framework of models for the early detection of the onset of an influenza epidemic which is applicable to different kinds of surveillance data. In particular, the process of the observed cases is modelled via a Bayesian Hierarchical Poisson model in which the intensity parameter is a function of the incidence rate. The key point is to consider this incidence rate as a normal distribution in which both parameters (mean and variance) are modelled differently, depending on whether the system is in an epidemic or non-epide…

Bayesian Markov switching models for the early detection of influenza epidemics

2008

The early detection of outbreaks of diseases is one of the most challenging objectives of epidemiological surveillance systems. In this paper, a Markov switching model is introduced to determine the epidemic and non-epidemic periods from influenza surveillance data: the process of differenced incidence rates is modelled either with a first-order autoregressive process or with a Gaussian white-noise process depending on whether the system is in an epidemic or in a non-epidemic phase. The transition between phases of the disease is modelled as a Markovian process. Bayesian inference is carried out on the former model to detect influenza epidemics at the very moment of their onset. Moreover, t…

Prospective analysis of infectious disease surveillance data using syndromic information.

2014

In this paper, we describe a Bayesian hierarchical Poisson model for the prospective analysis of data for infectious diseases. The proposed model consists of two components. The first component describes the behavior of disease during nonepidemic periods and the second component represents the increase in disease counts due to the presence of an epidemic. A novelty of our model formulation is that the parameters describing the spread of epidemics are allowed to vary in both space and time. We also show how syndromic information can be incorporated into the model to provide a better description of the data and more accurate one-step-ahead forecasts. These real-time forecasts can be used to …

Prospective surveillance of multivariate spatial disease data

2012

Surveillance systems are often focused on more than one disease within a predefined area. On those occasions when outbreaks of disease are likely to be correlated, the use of multivariate surveillance techniques integrating information from multiple diseases allows us to improve the sensitivity and timeliness of outbreak detection. In this article, we present an extension of the surveillance conditional predictive ordinate to monitor multivariate spatial disease data. The proposed surveillance technique, which is defined for each small area and time period as the conditional predictive distribution of those counts of disease higher than expected given the data observed up to the previous t…

Strategic planning for maxillofacial trauma and head and neck cancers during COVID-19 pandemic– December 2020 updated from Germany

2021

Alia: Antropologia di una comunità dell'entroterra siciliano

2002

In the spring of 1995, during works for the rehabilitation of a wall that closed the grotto of the Old Cemetery in the Sicilian village of Alia, the skeletal remains of the victims of the cholera outbreak of 1837 that had been rapidly interred here were brought to light. From that moment on, the Alia project was developed without interruption, analysing the biological evolution of the local population by exploiting study methods characteristic of different anthropological disciplines, such as skeletal biology, population genetics and biodemography. The book renders account of research completed and in progress carried out by academics from the Universities of Florence, Palermo, Parma, Cagli…

Surgeons' fear of getting infected by COVID19: A global survey

2020

During the last three months, COVID- 19 pandemic had led to a serious backlog of operations globally, and plans for restarting operation are imperative. Recommendations for surgical activities were studied, aiming to protect the surgical staff from being infected. In the meantime, it is also important to give attention to the surgeon’s personal feeling during work. We conducted a survey to investigate global surgi- cal practices during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the surgeon’s personal feeling was also investigated in the sur- vey. In this special letter, we performed multivariate analysis to explore factors that associated with surgeon’s fear of getting infected by COVID-19.

Exploring relationships between drought and epidemic cholera in Africa using generalised linear models

2021

AbstractBackgroundTemperature and precipitation are known to affect Vibrio cholerae outbreaks. Despite this, the impact of drought on outbreaks has been largely understudied. Africa is both drought and cholera prone and more research is needed in Africa to understand cholera dynamics in relation to drought.MethodsHere, we analyse a range of environmental and socioeconomic covariates and fit generalised linear models to publicly available national data, to test for associations with several indices of drought and make cholera outbreak projections to 2070 under three scenarios of global change, reflecting varying trajectories of CO2 emissions, socio-economic development, and population growth…

Pandemic influenza A/H1N1 virus in a swine farm house in Sicily, Italy.

2012

This report describes a pandemic A/H1N1 (H1N1 pdm) virus outbreak occurred in December, 2009 in a swine farm used as research facility (Istituto Mediterraneo Trapianti e Terapie ad Alta Specializzazione) for preclinical studies, located in Sicily, Italy. All the 13 pigs of the farm, showed cough, fever, inappetence and weakness. At the same time, an unvaccinated worker of the stabling showed influenza-like symptoms. RNAv extracted from two swabs collected from infected pigs resulted positive by Real Time RT-PCR for Influenza A virus. Furthermore, after growth on embryonated eggs, viral isolates were identified by Real Time RT-PCR specific for H1N1 pdm virus and characterized antigenically. …