Search results for "PRECIPITATION"

Exploring the predictability of the‘Short Rains’ at the coast of East Africa

2004

The boreal autumn ‘Short Rains’ at the coast of East Africa are deficient when there is weak development of a zonal circulation cell along the Indian Ocean equator, an anomalously low sea-surface temperature in the western portion of the basin, and in the high phase of the southern oscillation. Such large-scale circulation departures and their precursors are described by compact indices. September values of these indices for the period 1958–96 are used to explore the predictability of an index (RON) of October–November rainfall at the coast of East Africa. Regressions with cross-validation over the entire 1958–96 period are evaluated for the early (1958–77) and late (1978–96) halves of the …

Sudan-Sahel rainfall onset: Definition of an objective index, types of years, and experimental hindcasts

2006

Using rainfall estimates from the 5-day version of CPC Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and Global Precipitation Climatology Project data along with multiscale spatial key descriptors of atmospheric dynamics from National Center for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy reanalysis 2 (NCEP/DOE), we first define a West African monsoon onset index to determine its successive dates of occurrence over the period 1979-2004 (28-29 June in mean with a standard deviation of 8.5 days). Then we focus on the three main types of time evolutions of that index at the moment of the monsoon onset in terms of precipitation, pressure, temperature, and winds at different levels to detect the mos…

Aerosol responses to precipitation along North American air trajectories arriving at Bermuda

2021

North American pollution outflow is ubiquitous over the western North Atlantic Ocean, especially in winter, making this location a suitable natural laboratory for investigating the impact of precipitation on aerosol particles along air mass trajectories. We take advantage of observational data collected at Bermuda to seasonally assess the sensitivity of aerosol mass concentrations and volume size distributions to accumulated precipitation along trajectories (APT). The mass concentration of particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter less than 2.5 µm normalized by the enhancement of carbon monoxide above background (PM2.5/ΔCO) at Bermuda was used to estimate the degree of aerosol loss durin…

Convective precipitation over a Mediterranean area: From identification to trend analysis starting from high-resolution rain gauges data

2022

Heavy rainfall events are likely to become more frequent and severe in the next future, under the effects of a changing climate. In this context, the scientific literature is characterized by a relevant number of studies trying to identify the convective component of precipitation, since this kind of phenomena, due to their short duration and high intensity, may lead to an increased risk of flash floods or debris flows and, consequently, human life losses and economic damages. In this study, a separation between the convective and stratiform precipitation, starting from the subhourly precipitation time series recorded over Sicily (Italy), is provided on a monthly scale. Results show that th…

The role of ENSO flavours and TNA on recent droughts over Amazon forests and the Northeast Brazil region

2019

Amazon tropical forests and the semiarid Northeast Brazil (NEB) region have registered very severe droughts during the last two decades, with a frequency that may have exceeded natural climate variability. Severe droughts impact the physiological response of Amazon forests, decreasing the availability to absorb atmospheric CO2, as well as biodiversity and increasing risk of fires. Droughts on this region also affect population by isolating them due to anomalous low river levels. Impacts of droughts over NEB region are related to water and energy security and subsistence agriculture. Most drought episodes over Amazonia and NEB are associated with El Nino (EN) events, anomalous warming over t…

2012

Abstract. We present a numerical modelling study investigating the impact of mineral dust on cloud formation over the Eastern Mediterranean for two case studies: (i) 25 September 2008 and (ii) 28/29 January 2003. In both cases dust plumes crossed the Mediterranean and interacted with clouds forming along frontal systems. For our investigation we used the fully online coupled model WRF-chem. The results show that increased aerosol concentrations due to the presence of mineral dust can enhance the formation of ice crystals. This leads to slight shifts of the spatial and temporal precipitation patterns compared to scenarios where dust was not considered to act as ice nuclei. However, the total…

Spatial distribution of the precipitation in Dobruja (Romania/Black Sea)

2000

An original dataset for the Dobruja, a low plateau region of southeastern Romania, is used to perform a statistical study of the spatial distribution of rainfall at annual and seasonal time-scales. A principal component analysis (PCA) is carried out to identify the precipitation regimes. The high eigenvalue of PC1 attests of the prevailing temperate-continental regime, with a relatively dry winter opposed to a late spring and early summer rainfall maximum. PC2 shows the specific pattern of the coast, with a small secondary maximum in November. In spite of the relatively flat topography, annual rainfall is characterized by a strong gradient between the coast and the interior. Particularly lo…

Northward bursts of the West African monsoon leading to rainfall over the Hoggar Massif, Algeria

2009

The Hoggar Massif is a comparatively populated region in the Sahara, where water supply is a critical problem due to the lack of nearby sources and unaffordable water pumping. In the present paper, we analyse the influence of the West African monsoon (WAM) on precipitation over the Hoggar during summer. We investigate (1) two rainfall events during 23-27 July 2006, accounting for almost half of the precipitation of this year, and (2) the representativity of this period with regard to ERA-40 ECMWF re-analyses (1979 to 2001). By the end of July 2006, two consecutive northward bursts of the WAM flow reached the Hoggar and caused an increase in low-level humidity. In the afternoon of these days…

Dynamics of tropical–extratropical interactions and extreme precipitation events in Saudi Arabia in autumn, winter and spring

2016

2021

Abstract. Lightning is the major cause of the natural ignition of wildfires worldwide and produces the largest wildfires in some regions. Lightning strokes produce about 5 % of forest fires in the Mediterranean Basin and are one of the most important precursors of the largest forest fires during the summer. Lightning-ignited wildfires produce significant emissions of aerosols, black carbon, and trace gases, such as CO, SO2, CH4, and O3, affecting air quality. Characterization of the meteorological and cloud conditions of lightning-ignited wildfires in the Mediterranean Basin can serve to improve fire forecasting models and to upgrade the implementation of fire emissions in atmospheric model…