Search results for "PRECIPITATION"
showing 10 items of 826 documents
Extracting subseasonal scenarios: an alternative method to analyze seasonal predictability of regional-scale tropical rainfall.
2013
Abstract Current seasonal prediction of rainfall typically focuses on 3-month rainfall totals at regional scale. This temporal summation reduces the noise related to smaller-scale weather variability but also implicitly emphasizes the peak of the climatological seasonal cycle of rainfall. This approach may hide potentially predictable signals when rainfall is lower: for example, near the onset or cessation of the rainy season. The authors illustrate such a case for the East African long rains (March–May) on a network of 36 stations in Kenya and north Tanzania from 1961 to 2001. Spatial coherence and potential predictability of seasonal rainfall anomalies associated with tropical sea surface…
Prediction of Dry-Season Precipitation in Tropical West Africa and Its Relation to Forcing from the Extratropics
2009
Abstract Precipitation during the boreal winter dry season in tropical West Africa is rare but occasionally results in significant impacts on the local population. The dynamics and predictability of this phenomenon have been studied very little. Here, a statistical evaluation of the climatology, dynamics, and predictions of dry-season wet events is presented for the region 7.5°–15°N, 10°W–10°E. The analysis is based upon Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) merged satellite–gauge pentad rainfall estimates and 5-day 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) precipitation forecasts, and covers the 23 dry seasons (November–February) during…
Changes in the African monsoon region at medium-term time horizon using 12 AR4 coupled models under the A1b emissions scenario.
2011
This study documents simulated precipitation and circulation changes through the 20C3M and A1b scenarios. It portrays a robust pattern, associating rainfall deficits in subtropical regions with rainfall excesses over West Africa, except in Northern Senegal and Mauritania, with a significant enhancement of both the April–June rainy season in 10/12 models and of the July–September rainy season in 8/12 models. Eastward to 5°W a northward shift in the latitude of the moisture flux convergence at 850 hPa is evident in 10/11 models (+0.58° in mean) and a southward shift in 6/11 models in the western region (−0.24°) is observed. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society
The onset of the rainy season in Yunnan province, PR China and its significance for agricultural operations
1993
Data of 134 stations located in Yunnan province, PR China were analysed in order to study the temporal and spatial characteristics of the onset of the rainy season and to investigate the consequences for farming operations. Using a precipitation threshold value, a time span of 12 weeks was found for the complete onset of the rainy season, while the range of onset dates varied from 37 days to 155 days. The onset occurred at different places across the province and showed active and break phases due to the interaction of four different branches of the atmospheric circulation. The onset of the growing season, determined by summing up decade precipitation totals, showed the same general pattern…
Spring to summer changes in the West African monsoon through NCEP/NCAR reanalyses (1968–1998)
2002
[1] This article focuses on the spring to summer evolutions of the West African monsoon from an energetic point of view; it uses NCEP/NCAR reanalyses along with observed and simulated rainfall data over the period 1968–1998. The results show that the West African monsoon can be viewed as a coupled ocean-atmosphere-land system phased with the zenithal evolution of solar radiation which maintains its thermally direct circulation by pumping, from the surface, enthalpy mainly in spring and latent energy in summer. In this context the horizontal energy gradients in the boundary layer play a key role during the spring to summer transition. At the beginning of spring, the moist static energy (MSE)…
Comparison of rainfall structures between NCEP/NCAR reanalyses and observed data over tropical Africa
2000
A comparison is made between modelled (NCEP/NCAR reanalysis) and observed (CRC and CRU dataset) annual and monthly precipitation over tropical Africa during the period 1958–1997. The split moving-windows dissimilarity analysis (SMWDA) is used to locate abrupt changes in rainfall time series. In the NCEP reanalysis data, we identify a main abrupt shift, which occurs in 1967 and concerns more than 50% of grid points. In the observation, this shift is only found over parts of tropical North Africa. Three other NCEP abrupt shifts (1975, 1983 and 1987) in the reanalysis shown by the SMWDA, each concerning about 20% of tropical Africa, are not identified in the observation. One hypothesis concern…
Impact of very low crop residues cover on wind erosion in the Sahel
2011
International audience; In the Sahel, with average annual precipitation in the order of 500 mm yr− 1, wind erosion occurs mainly on cultivated millet fields whose surfaces are only partially covered by crop residues. The impact of these residues on wind erosion was not clearly established. The objective of this study is thus to quantify the actual amount of crop residues in traditional Sahelian fields and to determine their impacts on wind erosion by reference to a bare surface throughout the seasonal cycle over several years. At the beginning of the year during dry season, Sahelian farmers use to "clean" their fields, i.e. cut and lay flat on the soil surface any millet stalks still standi…
Climate/growth relationships of Brachystegia spiciformis from the miombo woodland in south central Africa
2010
Abstract We present five Brachystegia spiciformis Benth. (BrSp) tree-ring chronologies from the seasonally dry miombo woodland in south central Africa. Between 9 and 34 stem discs were collected from three dry and two wet miombo sites. All samples showed distinct growth rings, which were marked by terminal parenchyma bands. Site chronologies varied in length between 43 and 149 years. An increase in the number of growth ring anomalies in older trees, however, resulted in an increase in dating error and a decrease in between-tree correlations with increase in the chronology length. Annual precipitation variability accounted for some 28% of the common variance in the BrSp chronologies and we f…
Extreme dry spell detection and climatology over the Mediterranean Basin during the wet season
2016
The E-OBS precipitation gridded data set v.10.0 is used to detect very long dry spell (VLDS) events over the entire Mediterranean Basin for the 1957–2013 period, during the wet season (September to April). The main objective is to characterize these events as climatic objects, in terms of location, spatial extent, duration, and temporal variability. In this study, 76 VLDS events were detected in the Mediterranean Basin and grouped into four spatial patterns: scattered localized (with 25 events), northeast Mediterranean (11 events), West Mediterranean (15 events), and southeast Mediterranean (25 events). Each pattern shows seasonality in events. Most of the scattered localized, northeast, an…
Climate Adjustments over Africa Accompanying the Indian Monsoon Onset
2010
Abstract Rainfall and circulation changes accompanying the Indian monsoon onset are examined, focusing on the African continent and neighboring areas. The Indian Meteorological Department official monsoon onset dates over Kerala (MOK; on average on 1 June) are used. Composites are formed at a pentad (5 days) time scale to compare pre- and postonset conditions. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) data for 1979–2007 indicate that a substantial rainfall decrease over several parts of Africa is associated with MOK. Significant rainfall anomalies, after removal of the mean seasonal cycle, are found in eastern Africa and the nearby western Indian Ocean. Indian …