Search results for "PREDICT"
showing 10 items of 2174 documents
Tropical Transition of Hurricane Chris (2012) over the North Atlantic Ocean: A Multi-Scale Investigation of Predictability
2019
Tropical cyclones that evolve from a non-tropical origin may pose a special challenge for predictions, as they often emerge at the end of a multi-scale cascade of atmospheric processes. Climatological studies have shown that the 'tropical transition' (TT) pathway plays a prominent role in cyclogenesis, in particular over the North Atlantic Ocean. Here we use operational European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ensemble predictions to investigate the TT of North Atlantic Hurricane Chris (2012), whose formation was preceded by the merger of two potential vorticity (PV) maxima, eventually resulting in the storm-inducing PV streamer. The principal goal is to elucidate the dynamic and …
Rossby Wave Packets on the Midlatitude Waveguide-A Review
2018
Abstract Rossby wave packets (RWPs) are Rossby waves for which the amplitude has a local maximum and decays to smaller values at larger distances. This review focuses on upper-tropospheric transient RWPs along the midlatitude jet stream. Their central characteristic is the propagation in the zonal direction as well as the transfer of wave energy from one individual trough or ridge to its downstream neighbor, a process called “downstream development.” These RWPs sometimes act as long-range precursors to extreme weather and presumably have an influence on the predictability of midlatitude weather systems. The paper reviews research progress in this area with an emphasis on developments during…
Utility of Hovmöller diagrams to diagnose Rossby wave trains
2011
The study investigates and compares various methods that aim to diagnose Rossby wave trains with the help of Hovm¨ oller diagrams. Three groups of methods are distinguished: The first group contains trough-and-ridge Hovm¨ oller diagrams of the meridional wind; they provide full phase information, but differ in the method for latitudinal averaging or weighting. The second group aims to identify Rossby wave trains as a whole, discounting individual troughs and ridges. The third group contains diagnostics which focus on physical mechanisms during the different phases of a Rossby wave train life cycle; they include the analysis of eddy kinetic energy and methods for quantifying Rossby wave brea…
HErZ: The German Hans-Ertel Centre for Weather Research
2016
AbstractIn 2011, the German Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development laid the foundation of the Hans-Ertel Centre for Weather Research [Hans-Ertel-Zentrum für Wetterforschung (HErZ)] in order to better connect fundamental meteorological research and teaching at German universities and atmospheric research centers with the needs of the German national weather service Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD). The concept for HErZ was developed by DWD and its scientific advisory board with input from the entire German meteorological community. It foresees core research funding of about €2,000,000 yr−1 over a 12-yr period, during which time permanent research groups must be established…
Mixed-Phase Clouds: Progress and Challenges
2017
Mixed-phase clouds represent a three-phase colloidal system consisting of water vapor, ice particles, and coexisting supercooled liquid droplets. Mixed-phase clouds are ubiquitous in the troposphere, occurring at all latitudes from the polar regions to the tropics. Because of their widespread nature, mixed-phase processes play critical roles in the life cycle of clouds, precipitation formation, cloud electrification, and the radiative energy balance on both regional and global scales. Yet, in spite of many decades of observations and theoretical studies, our knowledge and understanding of mixed-phase cloud processes remains incomplete. Mixed-phase clouds are notoriously difficult to represe…
Comparative assessment of RAMS and WRF short-term forecasts over Eastern Iberian Peninsula using various in-situ observations, remote sensing product…
2018
The Regional Atmospheric Modeling System (RAMS) and the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale models are being used for weather and air quality studies as well as forecasting tools in Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) systems. In the current study, we perform a comparative assessment of these models under distinct typical atmospheric conditions, classified according to the dominant wind flow and cloudiness, over Eastern Iberian Peninsula. This study is focused on the model representation of key physical processes in terms of meteorology and surface variables during a 7-days period in summer 2011. The hourly outputs produced by these two models are compared not only with observed…
Aviation Contrail Cirrus and Radiative Forcing Over Europe During 6 Months of COVID‐19
2021
Abstract The COVID‐19 pandemic led to a 72% reduction of air traffic over Europe in March–August 2020 compared to 2019. Modeled contrail cover declined similarly, and computed mean instantaneous radiative contrail forcing dropped regionally by up to 0.7 W m−2. Here, model predictions of cirrus optical thickness and the top‐of‐atmosphere outgoing longwave and reflected shortwave irradiances are tested by comparison to Meteosat‐SEVIRI‐derived data. The agreement between observations and modeled data is slightly better when modeled contrail cirrus contributions are included. The spatial distributions and diurnal cycles of the differences in these data between 2019 and 2020 are partially caused…
Dynamics of Rossby Wave Packets in a Quantitative Potential Vorticity–Potential Temperature Framework
2016
Abstract Rossby wave packets (RWPs) have been associated with increased atmospheric predictability but also with the growth and propagation of forecast uncertainty. To address the important question of under which conditions RWPs imply high and low predictability, a potential vorticity–potential temperature (PV–θ) framework is introduced to diagnose RWP dynamics. Finite-amplitude RWPs along the midlatitude waveguide are considered and are represented by the synoptic-scale, wavelike undulations of the tropopause. The evolution of RWPs is examined by the amplitude evolution of the individual troughs and ridges. Troughs and ridges are identified as PV anomalies on θ levels intersecting the mid…
Gaussian Process Sensitivity Analysis for Oceanic Chlorophyll Estimation
2017
Source at https://doi.org/10.1109/JSTARS.2016.2641583. Gaussian process regression (GPR) has experienced tremendous success in biophysical parameter retrieval in the past years. The GPR provides a full posterior predictive distribution so one can derive mean and variance predictive estimates, i.e., point-wise predictions and associated confidence intervals. GPR typically uses translation invariant covariances that make the prediction function very flexible and nonlinear. This, however, makes the relative relevance of the input features hardly accessible, unlike in linear prediction models. In this paper, we introduce the sensitivity analysis of the GPR predictive mean and variance functions…
Mean Radiant Temperature Measurements through Small Black Globes under Forced Convection Conditions
2021
One of the most critical variables in the field of thermal comfort measurements is the mean radiant temperature which is typically measured with a standard 150 mm black globe thermometer. This is also the reference instrument required for the assessment of heat stress conditions by means of the well-known Wet Bulb Globe Temperature index (WBGT). However, one of the limitations of this method is represented by the relatively long response time. This is why in recent years there has been a more and more pressing need of smart sensors for controlling Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) systems, and for pocket heat stress meters (e.g., WBGT meters provided with table tennis balls). …