Search results for "PREDICTABILITY"
showing 10 items of 103 documents
Exploring single polarization X-band weather radar potentials for local meteorological and hydrological applications
2015
Summary The aim of this study is to evaluate the potential use of a low-cost single polarization X-band weather radar, verified by a disdrometer and a dense rain gauge network, installed as a supporting tool for hydrological applications and for monitoring the urban area of Palermo (Italy). Moreover, this study focuses on studying the temporal variability of the Z–R relation for Mediterranean areas. The radar device is provided with an automatic operational ground-clutter filter developed by the producer. Attention has been paid to the development of blending procedures between radar measurements and other auxiliary instruments and to their suitability for both meteorological and hydrologic…
Génétique des textes et système chaotique
2016
Textual genetics and chaotic system Although we share Louis Hay's idea that it is impossible to homologate and systematize the operations which can be observed in manuscripts, it is however possible to interpret whatever creation process in terms of the passage from entropy to order. The possibility of an analogy between text and chaotic system had been advanced by Noëlle Batt according to whom each work actually satisfies the principles of the chaotic system. It is starting from such principles that we will try to show the analogy between chaotic system and textual genetics: 1. The fact that we are dealing with an evolving system (with variables and permanent features) endowed with a tempo…
The Stationarity of Lead-Lag Teleconnections with East Africa Rainfall and its Incidence on Seasonal Predictability
2001
East Africa experiences large interannual rainfall variations, which can lead to severe droughts, as in 1984 in Ethiopia, or extensive flooding, as in 1997 in Somalia and Kenya. In the last 15 years, significant advances have been made in relating these variations to large-scale ocean-atmosphere anomalies, of which those associated to ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) come first. The additional importance of sea-surface variations in the Tropical Atlantic and Indian Oceans is becoming established. Although 20th century East African precipitation series did not experience decadal-scale trends as significant as those found in the sahelian belt, the correlation with ENSO, the Indian monsoon …
SECULAR MEAN REVERSION AND LONG-RUN PREDICTABILITY OF THE STOCK MARKET
2016
Empirical financial literature documents the evidence of mean reversion in stock prices and the absence of out-of-sample return predictability over periods shorter than 10 years. The goal of this paper is to test the random walk hypothesis in stock prices and return predictability over periods longer than 10 years. Specifically, using 141 years of data, this paper begins by performing formal tests of the random walk hypothesis in the prices of the real S&P Composite Index over increasing time horizons up to 40 years. Even though our results cannot support the conventional wisdom which says that the stock market is safer for long-term investors, our findings speak in favor of the mean revers…
Magnetoencephalography Responses to Unpredictable and Predictable Rare Somatosensory Stimuli in Healthy Adult Humans
2021
Mismatch brain responses to unpredicted rare stimuli are suggested to be a neural indicator of prediction error, but this has rarely been studied in the somatosensory modality. Here, we investigated how the brain responds to unpredictable and predictable rare events. Magnetoencephalography responses were measured in adults frequently presented with somatosensory stimuli (FRE) that were occasionally replaced by two consecutively presented rare stimuli [unpredictable rare stimulus (UR) and predictable rare stimulus (PR); p = 0.1 for each]. The FRE and PR were electrical stimulations administered to either the little finger or the forefinger in a counterbalanced manner between the two conditio…
The East African March–May Rainy Season: Associated Atmospheric Dynamics and Predictability over the 1968–97 Period
2002
Abstract This paper focuses on the East African March–May “long rains.” Particularly, it investigates the atmospheric patterns associated to the March–May rainfall anomalies, then proposes a seasonal prediction model. In a preliminary step, in order to define a regional rainfall index, a new form of extended principal component analysis is performed, aimed at capturing both the spatial and intraseasonal rainfall coherence. What emerges is that although the long rains exhibit a low temporal coherence, calling for a separation between the months of March–April and May in teleconnection studies, they show a relatively strong spatial consistency over the Kenya–Uganda inland region. From composi…
Definition and predictability of an OLR based West African monsoon onset
2008
The monsoon onset is documented in terms of latitudinal shift of deep convection areas within the ITCZ using an interpolated version of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR) at a 5-day time-step over West Africa for the period 1979–2004. Signals in moist convection derived from OLR values lower than 180 W/m2 allow better determination of onset dates (ODs) than the use of other thresholds or of the raw values of OLR. Such ODs are defined without any time filtering or spatial averaging along the meridional plane. They are also significantly correlated with ODs based on other datasets such as the CMAP and Global Precipitation Climatology P…
Cardiorespiratory information dynamics during mental arithmetic and sustained attention
2015
An analysis of cardiorespiratory dynamics during mental arithmetic, which induces stress, and sustained attention was conducted using information theory. The information storage and internal information of heart rate variability (HRV) were determined respectively as the self-entropy of the tachogram, and the self-entropy of the tachogram conditioned to the knowledge of respiration. The information transfer and cross information from respiration to HRV were assessed as the transfer and cross-entropy, both measures of cardiorespiratory coupling. These information-theoretic measures identified significant nonlinearities in the cardiorespiratory time series. Additionally, it was shown that, alt…
The role of the agreement as a tool for management of property relations in cases of cross border marriages and civil unions/partnerships registered …
2021
The essay examines the role of the agreement as a tool for managing property relationships in crossborder marriages and registered partnerships, in light of EU Regulations 1103 and 1104 of 2016, on the property regimes of international married or registered couples. The main prerogative of such acts is the recognition of the parties? freedom to choose the court and the applicable law. The law governing the matrimonial property regimes, or the property consequences of registered partnerships, has universal scope. This agreement in the form envisaged, which is backed by the need for legal certainty and predictability of the applicable rules, means that the spouses, in family problems which ha…
Information-based detection of nonlinear Granger causality in multivariate processes via a nonuniform embedding technique
2010
We present an approach, framed in information theory, to assess nonlinear causality between the subsystems of a whole stochastic or deterministic dynamical system. The approach follows a sequential procedure for nonuniform embedding of multivariate time series, whereby embedding vectors are built progressively on the basis of a minimization criterion applied to the entropy of the present state of the system conditioned to its past states. A corrected conditional entropy estimator compensating for the biasing effect of single points in the quantized hyperspace is used to guarantee the existence of a minimum entropy rate at which to terminate the procedure. The causal coupling is detected acc…