Search results for "PREDICTIONS"

An entropy-based machine learning algorithm for combining macroeconomic forecasts

2019

This paper applies a Machine Learning approach with the aim of providing a single aggregated prediction from a set of individual predictions. Departing from the well-known maximum-entropy inference methodology, a new factor capturing the distance between the true and the estimated aggregated predictions presents a new problem. Algorithms such as ridge, lasso or elastic net help in finding a new methodology to tackle this issue. We carry out a simulation study to evaluate the performance of such a procedure and apply it in order to forecast and measure predictive ability using a dataset of predictions on Spanish gross domestic product.

E-Sports y brecha de género: la percepción de las profesionales españolas

2019

The present paper aims to identify the causes of under-representation of women in E-sports. According to a genre perspective, interest in videogames at the amateur level is quite similar. However, in its professional level, female participation becomes very limited. The fact that physical effort is irrelevant (a requirement for ?traditional sports?) could be considered a variable that would negatively affect greater to equality in the conditions of access and participation of women in electronic sports. Against any predictions, the data on the presence of women are elocuent: few women, with much lower wages than men to remunerate same skills, and a general complaint by the female profession…

Erosion of Lizard Diversity by Climate Change and Altered Thermal Niches

2010

It is predicted that climate change will cause species extinctions and distributional shifts in coming decades, but data to validate these predictions are relatively scarce. Here, we compare recent and historical surveys for 48 Mexican lizard species at 200 sites. Since 1975, 12% of local populations have gone extinct. We verified physiological models of extinction risk with observed local extinctions and extended projections worldwide. Since 1975, we estimate that 4% of local populations have gone extinct worldwide, but by 2080 local extinctions are projected to reach 39% worldwide, and species extinctions may reach 20%. Global extinction projections were validated with local extinctions o…

A Standard Siren Measurement of the Hubble Constant from GW170817 without the Electromagnetic Counterpart

2019

We perform a statistical standard siren analysis of GW170817. Our analysis does not utilize knowledge of NGC 4993 as the unique host galaxy of the optical counterpart to GW170817. Instead, we consider each galaxy within the GW170817 localization region as a potential host; combining the redshift from each galaxy with the distance estimate from GW170817 provides an estimate of the Hubble constant, $H_0$. We then combine the $H_0$ values from all the galaxies to provide a final measurement of $H_0$. We explore the dependence of our results on the thresholds by which galaxies are included in our sample, as well as the impact of weighting the galaxies by stellar mass and star-formation rate. Co…

Modelling phytoplankton in boreal lakes

2014

Predicting the current and future global distribution of the invasive freshwater hydrozoan Craspedacusta sowerbii

2021

AbstractThe freshwater jellyfish Craspedacusta sowerbii is one of the most widespread invasive species, but its global distribution remains uncertain due to ephemeral appearances and general lack of information in various aquatic environments. The aim of this study was to map current and future distributions (2050 and 2100) using Species Distribution Models allowing to visualize the habitat suitability and make projections of its changes under potential climate change scenarios. Except in Oceania where the range decreased, an expansion of C. sowerbii was projected during the next century under modeled future scenarios being most intensive during the first half of the century. The present st…

Downscaling rice yield simulation at sub-field scale using remotely sensed LAI data

2019

Abstract Crop modeling and remote sensing are key tools to gain deeper understanding on cropping system dynamics and, ultimately, to increase the sustainability of agricultural productions. This study presents a system to estimate rice yields at sub-field scale based on the integration of a biophysical model and remotely sensed products. Leaf area index (LAI) data derived from decametric optical imageries (i.e., Landsat-8, Landsat-7 and Sentinel–2A) were assimilated into the WARM rice model via automatic recalibration of crop parameters at a fine spatial resolution (30 m × 30 m), targeting the lowest error between simulated and remotely sensed LAI. The performance of the system was evaluate…

Initial conditions in AA and pA collisions

2016

A full understanding of the spacetime evolution of the QCD matter created in a heavy ion collision requires understanding the properties of the initial stages. In the weak coupling picture these are dominated by classical gluon fields, whose properties can also be studied via the scattering of dilute probes off a high energy hadron or nucleus. A particular challenge is understanding small systems, where LHC data is also showing signs of collective behavior. We discuss some recent results of on the initial matter production and thermalization in heavy ion collisions, in particular in the gluon saturation framework.

Theoretical Determination of the pK a Values of Betalamic Acid Related to the Free Radical Scavenger Capacity: Comparison Between Empirical and Quant…

2015

Health benefits of dietary phytochemicals have been suggested in recent years. Among 1000s of different compounds, Betalains, which occur in vegetables of the Cariophyllalae order (cactus pear fruits and red beet), have been considered because of reducing power and potential to affect redox-modulated cellular processes. The antioxidant power of Betalains is strictly due to the dissociation rate of the acid moieties present in all the molecules of this family of phytochemicals. Experimentally, only the pK a values of betanin were determined. Recently, it was evidenced it was evidenced as the acid dissociation, at different environmental pHs, affects on its electron-donating capacity, and fur…

Hyper-concentrated flow and surface velocity estimation by digital imaging technique: a study case

2015

This paper investigates the utility of digital imaging technique for performing surface velocity measurements of hyper-concentrated flows. The analysis is conducted with the aid of data collected in a scale laboratory flume constructed at the Hydraulic laboratory of the Department of Civil, Environmental, Aerospatial and of Materials Engineering (DICAM) – University of Palermo (Italy). In particular the present paper describes the setup of a laboratory test and the applicability of a fully digital imaging approach.