Search results for "PROB"

Dynamics in the extratropical tropopause region: A case of transition between dynamically active and passive tracer advection?

2005

It is argued that certain aspects of tracer patterns and related stirring by the flow in the extratropical tropopause region can be understood in terms of a transition between dynamically active and passive tracer advection, called ‘active-to-passive tracer transition’. In the framework of surface quasi-geostrophic dynamics, a specific initial-value problem is defined and investigated. It features a gradual transition between the two paradigms of tracer advection and allows a clear interpretation thanks to the idealized nature of the model setup. Physical reasoning and anecdotal evidence from previous studies suggest that, at least in specific cases, this interpretation is relevant for the …

Retrieval of atmospheric CH4profiles from Fourier transform infrared data using dimension reduction and MCMC

2016

We introduce an inversion method that uses dimension reduction for the retrieval of atmospheric methane (CH4) profiles. Uncertainty analysis is performed using the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) statistical estimation. These techniques are used to retrieve CH4 profiles from the ground-based spectral measurements by the Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) instrument at Sodankyla (67.4 degrees N, 26.6 degrees E), Northern Finland. The Sodankyla FTS is part of the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), a global network that observes solar spectra in near-infrared wavelengths. The high spectral resolution of the data provides approximately 3 degrees of freedom about the vertical struc…

A new technique for observationally derived boundary conditions for space weather

2018

This research has received funding from the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme (grant agreement No 647214). D.H.M. would like to thank STFC and the Leverhulme Trust for their financial support. ARY was supported by STFC consortium grant ST/N000781/1 to the universities of Dundee and Durham. Context.  In recent years, space weather research has focused on developing modelling techniques to predict the arrival time and properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) at the Earth. The aim of this paper is to propose a new modelling technique suitable for the next generation of Space Weather predictive tools that is both efficie…

Improving spatial temperature estimates by resort to time autoregressive processes

2012

Temperature estimation methods usually involve regression followed by kriging of residuals (residual kriging). Despite the performance of such models, there is invariably a residual which is not necessarily unpredictable because it may still be correlated in time. We set out to analyse such residuals through resort to autoregressive processes. It is shown that the optimal period varies depending on whether it is identified by functions of the form resd = f(resd−1, resd−2, ..., resd−p) or by partial correlations. Autoregressive processes significantly improve estimates, which are evaluated by cross-validations. Finally, the two following points are discussed: (1) the assumptions of the autor…

Implementation of pressure reduction valves in a dynamic water distribution numerical model to control the inequality in water supply

2013

The analysis of water distribution networks has to take into account the variability of users' water demand and the variability of network boundary conditions. In complex systems, e.g. those characterized by the presence of local private tanks and intermittent distribution, this variability suggests the use of dynamic models that are able to evaluate the rapid variability of pressures and flows in the network. The dynamic behavior of the network also affects the performance of valves that are used for controlling the network. Pressure reduction valves (PRVs) are used for controlling pressure and reducing leakages. Highly variable demands can produce significant fluctuation of the PRV set po…

2017

Abstract. We present a Monte Carlo genetic algorithm (MCGA) for efficient, automated, and unbiased global optimization of model input parameters by simultaneous fitting to multiple experimental data sets. The algorithm was developed to address the inverse modelling problems associated with fitting large sets of model input parameters encountered in state-of-the-art kinetic models for heterogeneous and multiphase atmospheric chemistry. The MCGA approach utilizes a sequence of optimization methods to find and characterize the solution of an optimization problem. It addresses an issue inherent to complex models whose extensive input parameter sets may not be uniquely determined from limited in…

Trends of mean temperatures and warm extremes in northern tropical Africa (1961-2014) from observed and PPCA-reconstructed time series

2016

Trends in daily maximum (TX) and minimum (TN) temperatures and indices of warm extremes are studied in tropical North Africa, west of the eastern African highlands, from 1961 to 2014. The analysis is based on the concatenation and cross-checking of two observed databases. Due to the large number of missing entries (~25%), a statistical infilling using probabilistic principal component analysis was applied. Averaged over 90 stations, the linear trends of annual mean TX and TN equal respectively +0.021 °C/yr and +0.028 °C/yr. The frequency of very hot days (TX > 35°C) and tropical nights (TN > 20°C), as well as the frequency of daily TX and TN above the 90th percentile (p90) (“warm days” and …

Slope units-based flow susceptibility model: using validation tests to select controlling factors

2011

A susceptibility map for an area, which is representative in terms of both geologic setting and slope instability phenomena of large sectors of the Sicilian Apennines, was produced using slope units and a multiparametric univariate model. The study area, extending for approximately 90 km2, was partitioned into 774 slope units, whose expected landslide occurrence was estimated by averaging seven susceptibility values, determined for the selected controlling factors: lithology, mean slope gradient, stream power index at the foot, mean topographic wetness index and profile curvature, slope unit length, and altitude range. Each of the recognized 490 landslides was represented by its centroid po…

Long-term persistence, invariant time scales and on-off intermittency of fog events

2021

Abstract In this work we study different characteristics of fog long-term persistence, in events with different physical formation mechanisms. Specifically, we focus on the characterization of fog long-term persistence from observational data, by means of a Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) of its associated low-visibility time series. We analyze fog events with radiation and orographic underlying physical formation mechanisms, and identify a two-range pattern of long-term persistence. Our analysis leads to the emergence of a characteristic time, τ∗, at the crossover point between different scaling exponents in the DFA, independent of the time scale at which the fog event is studied. We …

Detection and evaluation of an early divergence problem in northern Fennoscandian tree-ring data

2013

Although not yet fully understood, reduced sensitivity of tree growth to temperature at high northern latitudes during the last ˜ 40 years is often linked to concurrent anthropogenic changes of atmospheric composition and global warming. The idea that a temporal localization of the problem could improve its understanding initiated a search for erratic growth-patterns in earlier periods of high quality dendrochronological archives. An extensive network of maximum latewood density (MXD) measurements from northern Fennoscandia likely represents one of the most reliable regional summer-temperature reconstructions. The strong coherence between proxy and instrumental data is, however, interrupted…