Search results for "PROBABILITY DENSITY"
showing 10 items of 187 documents
RNA viruses as complex adaptive systems
2004
RNA viruses have high mutation rates and so their populations exist as dynamic and complex mutant distributions. It has been consistently observed that when challenged with a new environment, viral populations adapt following hyperbolic-like kinetics: adaptation is initially very rapid, but then slows down as fitness reaches an asymptotic value. These adaptive dynamics have been explained in terms of populations moving towards the top of peaks on rugged fitness landscapes. Fitness fluctuations of varying magnitude are observed during adaptation. Often the presence of fluctuations in the evolution of physical systems indicates some form of self-organization, or where many components of the s…
Cauchy flights in confining potentials
2009
We analyze confining mechanisms for L\'evy flights evolving under an influence of external potentials. Given a stationary probability density function (pdf), we address the reverse engineering problem: design a jump-type stochastic process whose target pdf (eventually asymptotic) equals the preselected one. To this end, dynamically distinct jump-type processes can be employed. We demonstrate that one "targeted stochasticity" scenario involves Langevin systems with a symmetric stable noise. Another derives from the L\'evy-Schr\"odinger semigroup dynamics (closely linked with topologically induced super-diffusions), which has no standard Langevin representation. For computational and visualiz…
Thermalization of Random Motion in Weakly Confining Potentials
2010
We show that in weakly confining conservative force fields, a subclass of diffusion-type (Smoluchowski) processes, admits a family of "heavy-tailed" non-Gaussian equilibrium probability density functions (pdfs), with none or a finite number of moments. These pdfs, in the standard Gibbs-Boltzmann form, can be also inferred directly from an extremum principle, set for Shannon entropy under a constraint that the mean value of the force potential has been a priori prescribed. That enforces the corresponding Lagrange multiplier to play the role of inverse temperature. Weak confining properties of the potentials are manifested in a thermodynamical peculiarity that thermal equilibria can be approa…
L\'{e}vy flights in inhomogeneous environments
2009
We study the long time asymptotics of probability density functions (pdfs) of L\'{e}vy flights in different confining potentials. For that we use two models: Langevin - driven and (L\'{e}vy - Schr\"odinger) semigroup - driven dynamics. It turns out that the semigroup modeling provides much stronger confining properties than the standard Langevin one. Since contractive semigroups set a link between L\'{e}vy flights and fractional (pseudo-differential) Hamiltonian systems, we can use the latter to control the long - time asymptotics of the pertinent pdfs. To do so, we need to impose suitable restrictions upon the Hamiltonian and its potential. That provides verifiable criteria for an invarian…
Volatility in Financial Markets: Stochastic Models and Empirical Results
2002
We investigate the historical volatility of the 100 most capitalized stocks traded in US equity markets. An empirical probability density function (pdf) of volatility is obtained and compared with the theoretical predictions of a lognormal model and of the Hull and White model. The lognormal model well describes the pdf in the region of low values of volatility whereas the Hull and White model better approximates the empirical pdf for large values of volatility. Both models fails in describing the empirical pdf over a moderately large volatility range.
Heavy-tailed targets and (ab)normal asymptotics in diffusive motion
2010
We investigate temporal behavior of probability density functions (pdfs) of paradigmatic jump-type and continuous processes that, under confining regimes, share common heavy-tailed asymptotic (target) pdfs. Namely, we have shown that under suitable confinement conditions, the ordinary Fokker-Planck equation may generate non-Gaussian heavy-tailed pdfs (like e.g. Cauchy or more general L\'evy stable distribution) in its long time asymptotics. For diffusion-type processes, our main focus is on their transient regimes and specifically the crossover features, when initially infinite number of the pdf moments drops down to a few or none at all. The time-dependence of the variance (if in existence…
Parameter orthogonality and conditional profile likelihood: the exponential power function case
1999
Orthogonality, according to Fisher’s metrics, between the parameters of a probability density function, as well as giving rise to a series of statistical implications, makes it possible to express a function of conditional profile likelihood with better properties than the ordinary profile likelihood function. In the present paper the parameters of exponential power function are made orthogonal and the conditional profile likelihood of the shape parameter p is determined in order to study its properties with reference to p estimation. Moreover, by means of a simulation plan, a comparison is made between the estimates of p obtained from the conditional profile log-likelihood and those obtain…
Understanding the determinants of volatility clustering in terms of stationary Markovian processes
2016
Abstract Volatility is a key variable in the modeling of financial markets. The most striking feature of volatility is that it is a long-range correlated stochastic variable, i.e. its autocorrelation function decays like a power-law τ − β for large time lags. In the present work we investigate the determinants of such feature, starting from the empirical observation that the exponent β of a certain stock’s volatility is a linear function of the average correlation of such stock’s volatility with all other volatilities. We propose a simple approach consisting in diagonalizing the cross-correlation matrix of volatilities and investigating whether or not the diagonalized volatilities still kee…
Spectral characteristics of steady-state Lévy flights in confinement potential profiles
2016
The steady-state correlation characteristics of superdiffusion in the form of Levy flights in one-dimensional confinement potential profiles are investigated both theoretically and numerically. Specifically, for Cauchy stable noise we calculate the steady-state probability density function for an infinitely deep rectangular potential well and for a symmetric steep potential well of the type U(x)∞x2m. For these potential profiles and arbitrary Levy index α, we obtain the asymptotic expression of the spectral power density.
Probabilistic response of linear structures equipped with nonlinear damper devices (PIS method)
2008
Passive control introducing energy absorbing devices into the structure has received considerable attention in recent years. Unfortunately the constitutive law of viscous fluid dampers is highly nonlinear, and even supposing that the structure behaves linearly, the whole system has inherent nonlinear properties. Usually the analysis is performed by a stochastic linearization technique (SLT) determining a linear system equivalent to the nonlinear one, in a statistical sense. In this paper the effect of the non-Gaussianity of the response due to the inherent nonlinearity of the damper device will be studied in detail via the Path Integral Solution (PIS) method. A systematic study is conducted…