Search results for "PROBABILITY"

Exploring the relationship between Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and academic performance: A multilevel analysis for Spain

2021

Abstract With the world becoming increasingly digitalized, determining the relationship between the use of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) and educational outcomes takes on special relevance for guiding educational policy decisions in a reasoned way. The objective of this research is to explore the relationship between different types of ICT use at school and at home, students' attitudes towards ICT, and academic performance, as well as to see if these associations differ according to the level of performance of the students. For this purpose, we apply multilevel regression models and quantile regression models with data from the Programme for International Student assessme…

Asset price dynamics in a “bull and bear market”

2021

Abstract We generalize an existing asset market model with heterogenous agents. In particular, we consider the case in which no-trade and low-trade intervals of chartists and fundamentalists respectively are not congruent. Thus we model chartist and fundamentalists who respond to asset prices in agent-specific neighborhoods around the fundamental value with different trade intensities. The resulting asset price dynamics is generated by a one-dimensional 5-piece linear map with discontinuities. Our analysis of this map focusses on coexisting price equilibria. Conditions for their existence and stability are determined analytically. By visualizing the results we allow for a basic bifurcation …

Belief elicitation with multiple point predictions

2021

Abstract We propose a simple, incentive compatible procedure based on binarized linear scoring rules to elicit beliefs about real-valued outcomes - multiple point predictions. Simultaneously eliciting multiple point predictions with linear incentives reveals the subjective probability distribution without pre-defined intervals or probabilistic statements. We show that the approach is theoretically as robust as existing methods, while adapting flexibly to different beliefs. In a laboratory experiment, we compare our procedure to the standard approach of eliciting discrete probabilities on pre-defined intervals. We find that elicitation with multiple point predictions is faster, perceived as …

The dynamic interdependence in the demand of primary and emergency secondary care: A hidden Markov approach

2021

This paper develops an extension of the class of finite mixture models for longitudinal count data to the bivariate case by using a trivariate reduction technique and a hidden Markov chain approach. The model allows for disentangling unobservable time-varying heterogeneity from the dynamic effect of utilisation of primary and secondary care and measuring their potential substitution effect. Three points of supports adequately describe the distribution of the latent states suggesting the existence of three profiles of low, medium and high users who shows persistency in their behaviour, but not permanence as some switch to their neighbour's profile.

The welfare cost of unpriced heterogeneity in insurance markets

2016

We consider the welfare loss of unpriced heterogeneity in insurance markets, which results when private information or regulatory constraints prevent insurance companies to set premiums reflecting expected costs. We propose a methodology which uses survey data to measure this welfare loss. After identifying some “types” which determine expected risk and insurance demand, we derive the key factors defining the demand and cost functions in each market induced by these unobservable types. These are used to quantify the efficiency costs of unpriced heterogeneity. We apply our methods to the US Long-Term Care and Medigap insurance markets, where we find that unpriced heterogeneity causes substan…

Do firms share the same functional form of their growth rate distribution? A statistical test

2014

We introduce a new statistical test of the hypothesis that a balanced panel of firms have the same growth rate distribution or, more generally, that they share the same functional form of growth rate distribution. We applied the test to European Union and US publicly quoted manufacturing firms data, considering functional forms belonging to the Subbotin family of distributions. While our hypotheses are rejected for the vast majority of sets at the sector level, we cannot rejected them at the subsector level, indicating that homogenous panels of firms could be described by a common functional form of growth rate distribution.

A multiple criteria decision model for analyzing and choosing among different development patterns for the Helsinki cargo harbor

1999

Abstract This paper describes a real application of a multicriteria approach to choosing among different options for developing the Helsinki harbor. In addition to the environmental impact assessment procedure, an analysis of the alternatives using the SMAA-method (Stochastic Multiobjective Acceptability Analysis) is carried out. The method applied here has been developed for situations in which the use of decision-makers’ preference information is not possible. Instead, the problem is described by typical weight vectors leading to each solution, taking into account the evident uncertainty embedded in the criteria values.

Development of a complex approach for evaluation of statistical data

2019

Entrepreneurship insolvency risk management: a case of Latvia

2011

Financial crisis and its consequences are visible in the capital adequacy of many commercial banks, which indicates that the approach banks took to assess credit risk was not sufficiently sophisticated. This article discusses practical methods of insolvency risk modelling for enterprises. In this paper, the authors analysed the accuracy of ten models developed by foreign authors to assess insolvency risk, which were validated on the database of Latvian companies. The authors have shown that models developed on historical data for foreign companies are less accurate than the model developed on the basis of financial indicators of Latvian companies. The authors developed a three-factor model …

Hacia una ordenación de las pequeñas empresas atendiendo a su posible situación de fracaso

2021

En la literatura contable son muchos los trabajos que han intentado explicar el posible fracaso empresarial a partir de la información contable y poner de manifiesto la relación entre dicha información y la situación de fracaso. Sin embargo, los resultados obtenidos hasta ahora no son definitivos, en cuanto no existe un mínimo común en todos ellos que permita modelizar el comportamiento de dicho fracaso. Este trabajo pretende constatar, mediante la definición de un indicador en el que intervengan una gran batería de ratios contables, que efectivamente la información contable ofrece pistas sobre el posible fracaso de la empresa. Al canalizar toda la información de los ratios contables a trav…