Search results for "PROBABILITY"
showing 10 items of 3417 documents
Banking failure prediction: a boosting classification tree approach
2016
The recent financial crisis shows that failure of some financial institutions can cause other banks to fail and ultimately cause damage to the financial system worldwide. Eurozone banks that experienced either liquidity or solvency problems during the finan- cial markets turmoil were bailed out by their national governments with the financial support and supervision of the European Union. This paper applies the boosted classification tree methodology to predict failure in the banking sector and identifies four key scor- ecard variables that are worth tracking closely in order to anticipate and prevent bank financial distress. The data used in this study comprises 2006-2012 annual series of …
Evaluation of the perceived social impacts of the Formula E Grand Prix of Santiago de Chile David
2020
[Abstract] The aim of this study is to analyse residents' perception of the social impact of the Formula E Grand Prix of Santiago de Chile. A sample of 414 residents was collected through a questionnaire made up of 46 items regarding possible positive and negative impacts. Descriptive analysis, confirmatory factorial analysis and cluster analysis were performed. The results showed two groups with different perceptions of this sporting event: realistic (n=152) and favourable (n=162). Sociodemographic variables referring to education level, civil status, income level, location of the family residence and political orientation contribute to significantly differentiating the clusters. The varia…
The Invariant Distribution of Wealth and Employment Status in a Small Open Economy with Precautionary Savings
2019
Abstract We study optimal savings in continuous time with exogenous transitions between employment and unemployment as the only source of uncertainty in a small open economy. We prove the existence of an optimal consumption path. We exploit that the dynamics of consumption and wealth between jumps can be expressed as a Fuchsian system. We derive conditions under which an invariant joint distribution for the state variables , i.e., wealth and labour market status, exists and is unique. We also provide conditions under which the distribution of these variables converges to the invariant distribution. Our analysis relies on the notion of T-processes and applies results on the stability of Mark…
Nonlinear GARCH models for highly persistent volatility
2005
In this paper we study new nonlinear GARCH models mainly designed for time series with highly persistent volatility. For such series, conventional GARCH models have often proved unsatisfactory because they tend to exaggerate volatility persistence and exhibit poor forecasting ability. Our main emphasis is on models that are similar to previously introduced smooth transition GARCH models except for the novel feature that a lagged value of conditional variance is used as the transition variable. This choice of the transition variable corresponds to the idea that high persistence in conditional variance is related to relatively infrequent changes in regime. U sing the theory of Markov chains w…
Consumption and Sustainable Development of Polish Metropolitan Cities
2023
The purpose of the study is to determine the level of sustainable development of metropolitan cities in Poland within the basic dimensions of sustainable development. At the same time, the levels of development of cities in terms of consumption were determined, and an attempt was made to identify the relationship of the levels of development of cities and the levels of development of consumption. Three main dimensions of sustainable development were considered: social, economic and environmental-spatial. It was important to find an answer to the question whether consumption can influence the levels of sustainable development achieved by cities, and in what aspects? A taxonomic method was us…
Innovation Dynamics in Space: Local Actors and Local Factors
1997
This paper addresses the issue of technogenesis and its geographical pattern. It aims to offer both a general analysis framework and a test on innovation data from several European cities. This framework is mainly built on the product life-cycle and the incubation approach. On the basis of this framework, it is argued that the phases of an industrial life-cycle have several firm-specific effects. First, these phases influence innovativeness and thus profit levels, output and employment of firms in a spatially distinct way. Second, the phases of the life-cycle mirror the importance of local factors for innovations, and third, they affect strategic decisions of firms, inter alia by influencin…
Sampling properties of the Bayesian posterior mean with an application to WALS estimation
2022
Many statistical and econometric learning methods rely on Bayesian ideas, often applied or reinterpreted in a frequentist setting. Two leading examples are shrinkage estimators and model averaging estimators, such as weighted-average least squares (WALS). In many instances, the accuracy of these learning methods in repeated samples is assessed using the variance of the posterior distribution of the parameters of interest given the data. This may be permissible when the sample size is large because, under the conditions of the Bernstein--von Mises theorem, the posterior variance agrees asymptotically with the frequentist variance. In finite samples, however, things are less clear. In this pa…
Semi-strong inefficiency in the fixed odds betting market: Underestimating the positive impact of head coach replacement in the main European soccer …
2019
Abstract In this paper we analyse the efficiency of the sports betting market, seeking to ascertain whether the market is efficient in the case of fixed odds provided by bookmakers in the four major European soccer leagues under the semi-strong efficiency hypothesis. By examining the trends of odds in the event of a major change in expectations about team results, i.e. when the head coach of a team is replaced, we attempt to verify the argument that a profitable strategy for the bettor is likely to be possible. In this case, the market under consideration would be inefficient. Analysing the average effect of head coach replacement, we find a positive impact on team performance. Based on thi…
DETECTING VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS IN TEMPERATURE RECONSTRUCTIONS BY DESIGNED BREAK-INDICATOR SATURATION
2016
We present a methodology for detecting breaks at any point in time-series regression models using an indicator saturation approach, applied here to modelling climate change. Building on recent developments in econometric model selection for more variables than observations, we saturate a regression model with a full set of designed break functions. By selecting over these break functions using an extended general-to-specific algorithm, we obtain unbiased estimates of the break date and magnitude. Monte Carlo simulations confirm the approximate properties of the approach. We assess the methodology by detecting volcanic eruptions in a time series of Northern Hemisphere mean temperature spanni…
Efficiency of French privatizations: a dynamic vision
2004
The program of French privatizations is one of the principal worldwide programs as for the volume of the equity issues. A reading of the process of privatization through the corporate governance theory resulted in working out a model making it possible to take into account, on the one hand, the time dimension of the process of privatization, on the other hand, the contextual, organizational, governance and strategic variables which influence this process. After having replicated a certain number of traditional tests, we carried out a test of this model on a sample of 19 French privatized firms and on a seven years horizon, which made it possible to obtain the following conclusions. The favo…