Search results for "PROBABILITY"
showing 10 items of 3417 documents
Stability analysis of rotor whirl under nonlinear internal friction by a general averaging approach
2016
The two main sources of internal friction in a rotor-shaft system are the shaft structural hysteresis and the possible shrink-fit release of the assembly. The internal friction tends to destabilize the over-critical rotor running, but a remedy against this effect may be provided by a proper combination of some external damping in the supports and an anisotropic arrangement of the support stiffness, or at most by the support damping alone, depending on the system geometry. The present analysis reported here considers a general asymmetric rotor-shaft system, where the rotor is perfectly rigid and is constrained by viscous–flexible supports having different stiffnesses on two orthogonal plane…
A predictive maintenance policy with imperfect monitoring
2010
For many systems,failure is a very dangerous or costly event. To reduce the occurrence of this event,it is necessary to implement a preventive maintenance policy to replace the critical elements before failure.Since elements do not often exhibit incipient faults, they are replaced before a complete exploiting of their useful life.To conjugate the objective of exploiting elements for almost all their useful life with the objective to avoid failure,condition based and,more recently,predictive maintenance policies have been proposed.This paper deals with this topic and proposes a procedure for the computation of the maintenance time that minimizes the global maintenance cost.By adopting a stoc…
A pedagogical flight simulator for longitudinal airplane flight
2009
This article presents a bi-dimensional model of flight and describes the implementation of a flight simulator able to describe the different phases of longitudinal flight of a real airplane. After identifying the relevant physical variables, the equations of motion are written and solved using a numerical integration method. Using computer simulations, flight paths and time evolution of the kinematics variables are analyzed for a complete flight of a light commercial airplane. The simulations take into account and reproduce the basic actions of a pilot to control the flight. The main maneuvers involved in pilotage are also predicted and explained in terms of model parameter variations induc…
Novel Resistance Measurement Method: Analysis of Accuracy and Thermal Dependence with Applications in Fiber Materials
2016
Material resistance is important since different physicochemical properties can be extracted from it. This work describes a novel resistance measurement method valid for a wide range of resistance values up to 100 GΩ at a low powered, small sized, digitally controlled and wireless communicated device. The analog and digital circuits of the design are described, analysing the main error sources affecting the accuracy. Accuracy and extended uncertainty are obtained for a pattern decade box, showing a maximum of 1 % accuracy for temperatures below 30 ∘ C in the range from 1 MΩ to 100 GΩ. Thermal analysis showed stability up to 50 ∘ C for values below 10 GΩ and systematic deviations for higher …
Uncertainty related to climate change in the assessment of the DDF curve parameters
2017
In the context of climate change, the evaluation of the parameters of Depth-Duration-Frequency (DDF) curves has become a critical issue. Neglecting future rainfall variations could result in an overestimation/underestimation of DDF parameters and, consequently, of the design storm. In this study, uncertainty analysis was integrated into trend analysis to provide an estimate of trends that cannot actually be rigorously verified. A Bayesian procedure was suggested for the updating of DDF curve parameters and to evaluate the uncertainty related to their assessment. The proposed procedure also allowed identification of the years of a series that contributed most to the overall uncertainty relat…
Bayesian inference analysis of the uncertainty linked to the evaluation of potential flood damage in urban areas.
2012
Flood damage in urbanized watersheds may be assessed by combining the flood depth–damage curves and the outputs of urban flood models. The complexity of the physical processes that must be simulated and the limited amount of data available for model calibration may lead to high uncertainty in the model results and consequently in damage estimation. Moreover depth–damage functions are usually affected by significant uncertainty related to the collected data and to the simplified structure of the regression law that is used. The present paper carries out the analysis of the uncertainty connected to the flood damage estimate obtained combining the use of hydraulic models and depth–damage curve…
Spatial pattern analysis using hybrid models: an application to the Hellenic seismicity
2016
Earthquakes are one of the most destructive natural disasters and the spatial distribution of their epi- centres generally shows diverse interaction structures at different spatial scales. In this paper, we use a multi-scale point pattern model to describe the main seismicity in the Hellenic area over the last 10 years. We analyze the interaction between events and the relationship with geo- logical information of the study area, using hybrid models as proposed by Baddeley et al. ( 2013 ). In our analysis, we find two competing suitable hybrid models, one with a full parametric structure and the other one based on nonpara- metric kernel estimators for the spatial inhomogeneity.
Comparison of the Rain Flow Algorithm and the Spectral Method for Fatigue Life Determination Under Uniaxial and Multiaxial Random Loading
2008
This paper presents the strain energy density parameter used for fatigue life calculation under random loading by two methods. The first method is based on schematization of energy parameter histories with the rain flow algorithm. The other one is based on moments of the power spectral density function of the energy parameter. The experimental data of fatigue tests of 10HNAP steel under constant amplitude and random uniaxial loading with non-gaussion probability distribution, zero mean value, and wide-band frequency spectrum used for comparison of the rain flow algorithm and the spectral method gave satisfactory results. Next, histories of the random stress tensor with normal probability di…
Performance assessment of individual and ensemble data-mining techniques for gully erosion modeling
2017
Gully erosion is identified as an important sediment source in a range of environments and plays a conclusive role in redistribution of eroded soils on a slope. Hence, addressing spatial occurrence pattern of this phenomenon is very important. Different ensemble models and their single counterparts, mostly data mining methods, have been used for gully erosion susceptibility mapping; however, their calibration and validation procedures need to be thoroughly addressed. The current study presents a series of individual and ensemble data mining methods including artificial neural network (ANN), support vector machine (SVM), maximum entropy (ME), ANN-SVM, ANN-ME, and SVM-ME to map gully erosion …