Search results for "PROBABILITY"
showing 10 items of 3417 documents
Quantum inductive inference by finite automata
2008
AbstractFreivalds and Smith [R. Freivalds, C.H. Smith Memory limited inductive inference machines, Springer Lecture Notes in Computer Science 621 (1992) 19–29] proved that probabilistic limited memory inductive inference machines can learn with probability 1 certain classes of total recursive functions, which cannot be learned by deterministic limited memory inductive inference machines. We introduce quantum limited memory inductive inference machines as quantum finite automata acting as inductive inference machines. These machines, we show, can learn classes of total recursive functions not learnable by any deterministic, nor even by probabilistic, limited memory inductive inference machin…
Cartels Uncovered
2018
How many cartels are there? The answer is important in assessing the efficiency of competition policy. We present a Hidden Markov Model that answers the question, taking into account that often we do not know whether a cartel exists in an industry or not. Our model identifies key policy parameters from data generated under different competition policy regimes and may be used with time-series or panel data. We take the model to data from a period of legal cartels - Finnish manufacturing industries 1951 - 1990. Our estimates suggest that by the end of the period, almost all industries were cartelized.
A Spatial Multilevel Analysis of Italian SMEs Productivity
2009
Abstract In this paper, we adapt multilevel analysis methods to investigate the spatial variability of SMEs' productivity across the Italian territory, and account for differences in the socio-economic context. Our results suggest that to properly capture the variability of the data, it is important to allow for both spatial mean and slope effects. Social decay has the expected negative impact. However, while this effect is larger on firms with smaller capital intensity, firms with higher capital intensity seem to be less affected by geography. Greater territorial heterogeneity emerges among those firms with lower capital to labour ratios. Une analyse spatiale a plusieurs niveaux de la prod…
Stability and synthesis of superheavy elements: Fighting the battle against fission – example of $^{254}$No
2016
International audience; Superheavy nuclei exist solely due to quantum shell effects,which create a pocket in the potential-energy surface of the nucleus, thusproviding a barrier against spontaneous fission. Determining the height ofthe fission barrier and its angular-momentum dependence is important toquantify the role that microscopic shell corrections play in enhancing andextending the limits of nuclear stability. In this talk, the first measurement ofa fission barrier in the very heavy nucleus 254No will be presented.
Semiparametric stochastic frontier models: A generalized additive model approach
2017
Abstract The choice of the functional form of the frontier into a stochastic frontier model is typically neglected in applications and canonical functions are usually considered. This paper introduces a semiparametric approach for stochastic frontier estimation that extends previous works based on pseudo-likelihood estimators allowing flexibility in model selection and capability of imposing monotonicity and concavity constraints. For these purposes the present work introduces a generalized additive framework that moreover permits to model the influence of contextual/environmental factors to the hypothesized production process by the relative extension given by generalized additive models f…
New Flexible Probability Distributions for Ranking Data
2015
Recently, several models have been proposed in literature for analyzing ranks assigned by people to some object. These models summarize the liking feeling for this object, possibly also with respect to a set of explanatory variables. Some recent works have suggested the use of the Shifted Binomial and of the Inverse Hypergeometric distribution for modelling the approval rate, while mixture models have been developed for taking into account the uncertainty of the ranking process. We propose two new probabilistic models, based on the Discrete Beta and the Shifted-Beta Binomial distributions, that ensure much flexibility and allow the joint modelling of the scale (approval rate) and the shape …
To lead or to wait? An application to internationalization strategies under demand uncertainty
2019
We examine the exports versus foreign direct investment (FDI) decision under demand uncertainty for an asymmetric cost duopoly. One of the firms can lead entry before demand realization or retain flexibility enjoying an informational advantage. When the time value of information is small and for sufficiently low investment costs, follow‐the‐leader behavior in FDI arises. Relatively high investment (fixed) costs result in follow‐the‐leader exporting behavior. When the time value of information becomes significant, the potential leader will opt for a wait‐and‐see strategy. For intermediate values of investment costs, the efficient firm invests, while the rival chooses to export.
Assessing Spillover Effects of Spatial Policies with Semiparametric Zero-Inflated Models and Random Forests
2021
The aim of this work is to estimate the variation over time of the spatial spillover effects of a public policy that was devoted to boost rural development in France over the period 1993–2002. At a micro data level, it is often observed that the dependent variable, such as local employment in a municipality, does not vary along time, so that we face a kind of zero inflated phenomenon that cannot be dealt with a classical continuous response model or propensity score approaches. We consider two recent non parametric techniques that are able to deal with that estimation issue. The first approach consists in fitting two generalized additive models to estimate both the probability of no variati…
Estimation of flood design hydrographs using bivariate analysis (copula) and distributed hydrological modelling
2014
Abstract. In this paper a procedure to derive Flood Design Hydrographs (FDH) using a bivariate representation of rainfall forcing (rainfall duration and intensity) using copulas, which describe and model the correlation between these two variables independently of the marginal laws involved, coupled with a distributed rainfall-runoff model is presented. Rainfall-runoff modelling for estimating the hydrological response at the outlet of a watershed used a conceptual fully distributed procedure based on the soil conservation service – curve number method as excess rainfall model and a distributed unit hydrograph with climatic dependencies for the flow routing. Travel time computation, based o…
Stability in a System subject to Noise with Regulated Periodicity
2011
The stability of a simple dynamical system subject to multiplicative one-side pulse noise with hidden periodicity is investigated both analytically and numerically. The stability analysis is based on the exact result for the characteristic functional of the renewal pulse process. The influence of the memory effects on the stability condition is analyzed for two cases: (i) the dead-time-distorted poissonian process, and (ii) the renewal process with Pareto distribution. We show that, for fixed noise intensity, the system can be stable when the noise is characterized by high periodicity and unstable at low periodicity.