Search results for "Point processes"

Inhomogeneous spatio-temporal point processes on linear networks for visitors’ stops data

2022

We analyse the spatio-temporal distribution of visitors' stops by touristic attractions in Palermo (Italy) using theory of stochastic point processes living on linear networks. We first propose an inhomogeneous Poisson point process model, with a separable parametric spatio-temporal first-order intensity. We account for the spatial interaction among points on the given network, fitting a Gibbs point process model with mixed effects for the purely spatial component. This allows us to study first-order and second-order properties of the point pattern, accounting both for the spatio-temporal clustering and interaction and for the spatio-temporal scale at which they operate. Due to the strong d…

Including covariates in a space-time point process with application to seismicity

2020

AbstractThe paper proposes a spatio-temporal process that improves the assessment of events in space and time, considering a contagion model (branching process) within a regression-like framework to take covariates into account. The proposed approach develops the forward likelihood for prediction method for estimating the ETAS model, including covariates in the model specification of the epidemic component. A simulation study is carried out for analysing the misspecification model effect under several scenarios. Also an application to the Italian seismic catalogue is reported, together with the reference to the developed R package.

Forward likelihood-based predictive approach for space-time point processes

2011

Dealing with data from a space–time point process, the estimation of the conditional intensity function is a crucial issue even if a complete definition of a parametric model is not available. In particular, in case of exploratory contexts or if we want to assess the adequacy of a specific parametric model, some kind of nonparametric estimation procedure could be useful. Often, for these purposes kernel estimators are used and the estimation of the intensity function depends on the estimation of bandwidth parameters. In some fields, like for instance the seismological one, predictive properties of the estimated intensity function are pursued. Since a direct ML approach cannot be used, we pr…

Gamma Kernel Intensity Estimation in Temporal Point Processes

2011

In this article, we propose a nonparametric approach for estimating the intensity function of temporal point processes based on kernel estimators. In particular, we use asymmetric kernel estimators characterized by the gamma distribution, in order to describe features of observed point patterns adequately. Some characteristics of these estimators are analyzed and discussed both through simulated results and applications to real data from different seismic catalogs.

Windowed Etas Models With Application To The Chilean Seismic Catalogs

2015

Abstract The seismicity in Chile is estimated using an ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock sequences) space–time point process through a semi-parametric technique to account for the estimation of parametric and nonparametric components simultaneously. The two components account for triggered and background seismicity respectively, and are estimated by alternating a ML estimation for the parametric part and a forward predictive likelihood technique for the nonparametric one. Given the geographic and seismological characteristics of Chile, the sensitivity of the technique with respect to different geographical areas is examined in overlapping successive windows with varying latitude. A different b…

Cluster priors in the Bayesian modelling of fMRI data

2001

An algorithm for earthquakes clustering based on maximum likelihood

2007

In this paper we propose a clustering technique set up to separate and find out the two main components of seismicity: the background seismicity and the triggered one. We suppose that a seismic catalogue is the realization of a non homogeneous space-time Poisson clustered process, with a different parametrization for the intensity function of the Poisson-type component and of the clustered (triggered) component. The method here proposed assigns each earthquake to the cluster of earthquakes, or to the set of independent events, according to the increment to the likelihood function, computed using the conditional intensity function estimated by maximum likelihood methods and iteratively chang…

Flexible space-time process for seismic data

2009

Point processes are well studied objects in probability theory and a powerful tool in statistics for modelling and analyzing the distribution of real phenomena, such as the seismic one. Point processes can be specified mathematically in several ways, for instance, by considering the joint distributions of the counts of points in arbitrary sets or defining a complete intensity function. The conditional intensity function is a function of the point history and it is itself a stochastic process depending on the past up to time t. In this paper some techniques to estimate the intensity function of space-time point processes are developed, by following semi-parametric approaches and diagnostic m…

Local characteristics of functional marked point processes with applications to seismic data

2022

We present a family of local inhomogeneous mark-weighted summary statistics for general marked point processes. These capture various types of local dependence structures depending on the specified involved weight function. We use them to propose a local random labeling test. This procedure enables us to identify points and thus regions where the random labeling assumption does not hold, for example, when the (functional) marks are spatially dependent. We further present an application to a seismic point pattern with functional marks provided by seismic waveforms. Indeed, despite the relatively long history of point process theory, few approaches to analyzing spatial point patterns where th…

Measuring the Rate of Information Exchange in Point-Process Data With Application to Cardiovascular Variability

2022

The amount of information exchanged per unit of time between two dynamic processes is an important concept for the analysis of complex systems. Theoretical formulations and data-efficient estimators have been recently introduced for this quantity, known as the mutual information rate (MIR), allowing its continuous-time computation for event-based data sets measured as realizations of coupled point processes. This work presents the implementation of MIR for point process applications in Network Physiology and cardiovascular variability, which typically feature short and noisy experimental time series. We assess the bias of MIR estimated for uncoupled point processes in the frame of surrogate…