Search results for "Polling"
showing 4 items of 14 documents
Improving predictive accuracy of exit polls
2010
Abstract Exit polls are best known for their use in election forecasting. In recent years, however, some prominent mistaken predictions have been made, undermining public confidence in the accuracy of both exit polls and survey methods. Nonresponse bias has been claimed as being one of the main reasons for inaccurate projections. Traditionally, the issue has been handled through an age–race–sex adjustment at the national and state levels. An alternative solution is suggested and detailed in this paper. A two-step strategy is proposed to reduce nonresponse bias and improve predictions. First, “vote-remembering” (vote recall) is used to correct party proportion estimates at polling locations;…
Improving IEEE 802.11 Performance in Chain Topologies through Distributed Polling and Network Coding
2009
Wireless multi-hop networks often rely on the use of IEEE 802.11 technology. Despite of the robustness of the IEEE 802.11 Distributed Coordination Function (DCF) for working in various network scenarios, it has been proven that critical inefficiencies can arise in the case of multi-hop packet forwarding. In this paper, we propose a MAC scheme, based on the virtualization of the Point Coordination Function, optimized for working on chain topologies with bidirectional traffic flows. Our scheme is based on a token-like access mechanism coupled with network coding. The basic idea is the use of multiple Point Coordinators (PCs) along the node chain, which are elected by passing special token fra…
Estimating Polling Accuracy in Multiparty Elections Using Surveybias
2016
Any rigorous discussion of bias in opinion surveys requires a scalar measure of survey accuracy. Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy (2005, Public Opinion Quarterly 69: 342-369) propose such a measure A for the two-party case, and Arzheimer and Evans (2014, Political Analysis 22: 31-44) demonstrate how measures A'i, B, and Bw for the more common multiparty case can be derived. We describe the commands surveybias, surveybiasi, and surveybiasseries, which enable the fast computation of these binomial and multinomial measures of bias in opinion surveys. While the examples are based on pre-election surveys, the methodology applies to any multinomial variable whose true distribution in the population…
A New Multinomial Accuracy Measure for Polling Bias
2014
In this article, we propose a polling accuracy measure for multi-party elections based on a generalization of Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy's two-party predictive accuracy index. Treating polls as random samples of a voting population, we first estimate an intercept only multinomial logit model to provide proportionate odds measures of each party's share of the vote, and thereby both unweighted and weighted averages of these values as a summary index for poll accuracy. We then propose measures for significance testing, and run a series of simulations to assess possible bias from the resulting folded normal distribution across different sample sizes, finding that bias is small even for polls…