Search results for "Posterior probability"
showing 8 items of 58 documents
Bayesian hierarchical models in manufacturing bulk service queues
2006
In this paper, Queueing Theory and Bayesian statistical tools are used to analyze the congestion of various manufacturing bulk service queues with the same characteristics that are working independently of one another and in equilibrium. Hierarchical models are discussed in order to develop the whole inferential process for the parameters governing the system. Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and numerical inversion of transforms are addressed to compute the posterior predictive distributions of the usual measures of performance in practice.
Bayesian design in queues: An application to aeronautic maintenance
2007
We exploit Bayesian criteria for designing M/M/c//r queueing systems with spares. For illustration of our approach we use a real problem from aeronautic maintenance, where the numbers of repair crews and spare planes must be sufficiently large to meet the necessary operational capacity. Bayesian guarantees for this to happen can be given using predictive or posterior distributions.
A Bayesian SIRS model for the analysis of respiratory syncytial virus in the region of Valencia, Spain
2014
We present a Bayesian stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) model in discrete time to understand respiratory syncytial virus dynamics in the region of Valencia, Spain. A SIRS model based on ordinary differential equations has also been proposed to describe RSV dynamics in the region of Valencia. However, this continuous-time deterministic model is not suitable when the initial number of infected individuals is small. Stochastic epidemic models based on a probability of disease transmission provide a more natural description of the spread of infectious diseases. In addition, by allowing the transmission rate to vary stochastically over time, the proposed model provides…
Bayesian measures of surprise for outlier detection
2003
From a Bayesian point of view, testing whether an observation is an outlier is usually reduced to a testing problem concerning a parameter of a contaminating distribution. This requires elicitation of both (i) the contaminating distribution that generates the outlier and (ii) prior distributions on its parameters. However, very little information is typically available about how the possible outlier could have been generated. Thus easy, preliminary checks in which these assessments can often be avoided may prove useful. Several such measures of surprise are derived for outlier detection in normal models. Results are applied to several examples. Default Bayes factors, where the contaminating…
FluDetWeb: an interactive web-based system for the early detection of the onset of influenza epidemics
2009
Abstract Background The early identification of influenza outbreaks has became a priority in public health practice. A large variety of statistical algorithms for the automated monitoring of influenza surveillance have been proposed, but most of them require not only a lot of computational effort but also operation of sometimes not-so-friendly software. Results In this paper, we introduce FluDetWeb, an implementation of a prospective influenza surveillance methodology based on a client-server architecture with a thin (web-based) client application design. Users can introduce and edit their own data consisting of a series of weekly influenza incidence rates. The system returns the probabilit…
A Supervised Learning Framework for Automatic Prostate Segmentation in Trans Rectal Ultrasound Images
2012
International audience; Heterogeneous intensity distribution inside the prostate gland, significant variations in prostate shape, size, inter dataset contrast variations, and imaging artifacts like shadow regions and speckle in Trans Rectal Ultrasound (TRUS) images challenge computer aided automatic or semi-automatic segmentation of the prostate. In this paper, we propose a supervised learning schema based on random forest for automatic initialization and propagation of statistical shape and appearance model. Parametric representation of the statistical model of shape and appearance is derived from principal component analysis (PCA) of the probability distribution inside the prostate and PC…
Multiple Mean Models of Statistical Shape and Probability Priors for Automatic Prostate Segmentation
2011
International audience; Low contrast of the prostate gland, heterogeneous intensity distribution inside the prostate region, imaging artifacts like shadow regions, speckle and significant variations in prostate shape, size and in- ter dataset contrast in Trans Rectal Ultrasound (TRUS) images challenge computer aided automatic or semi-automatic segmentation of the prostate. In this paper, we propose a probabilistic framework for automatic initialization and propagation of multiple mean parametric models derived from principal component analysis of shape and posterior probability information of the prostate region to segment the prostate. Unlike traditional statistical models of shape and int…
Bayesian Hierarchical Models for Random Routes in Finite Populations
1996
In many practical situations involving sampling from finite populations, it is not possible (or it is prohibitely expensive) to access, or to even produce, a listing of all of the units in the population. In these situations, inferences can not be based on random samples from the population. Random routes are widely used procedures to collect data in absence of well defined sampling frames, and they usually have either been improperly analyzed as random samples, or entirely ignored as useless. We present here a Bayesian analysis of random routes that incorporates the information provided but carefully takes into account the non- randomness in the selection of the units.