Search results for "Potential"
showing 10 items of 3348 documents
A Phase Locking Perspective on Rossby Wave Amplification and Atmospheric Blocking Downstream of Recurving Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones
2019
Abstract The extratropical transition (ET) of tropical cyclones (TCs) can significantly influence the evolution of the midlatitude flow. However, the interaction between recurving TCs and upstream upper-level troughs features a large and partly unexplained case-to-case variability. In this study, a synoptic, feature-based climatology of TC–trough interactions is constructed to discriminate recurving TCs that interact with decelerating and accelerating troughs. Upper-level troughs reducing their eastward propagation speed during the interaction with recurving TCs exhibit phase locking with lower-level temperature anomalies and are linked to pronounced downstream Rossby wave amplification. Co…
Seasonality and extent of extratropical TST derived from in-situ CO measurements during SPURT
2004
Abstract. We present airborne in-situ trace gas measurements which were performed on eight campaigns between November 2001 and July 2003 during the SPURT-project (SPURenstofftransport in der Tropopausenregion, trace gas transport in the tropopause region). The measurements on a quasi regular basis allowed an overview of the seasonal variations of the trace gas distribution in the tropopause region over Europe from 35°-75°N to investigate the influence of transport and mixing across the extratropical tropopause on the lowermost stratosphere. From the correlation of CO and O3 irreversible mixing of tropospheric air into the lowermost stratosphere is identified. The CO distribution indicates t…
Recent climate variability around the Kerguelen Islands (Southern Ocean) seen through weather regimes
2021
AbstractDaily weather regimes are defined around the Kerguelen Islands (Southern Ocean) based on daily 500 hPa geopotential height anomalies derived from the ERA5 ensemble reanalysis over the period 1979-2018. Ten regimes are retained as significant. Their occurrences are highly consistent across reanalysis ensemble members. Regimes show weak seasonality and non-significant long-term trends in their occurrences. Their sequences are usually short (1-3 days), with extreme persistence values above 10 days. Seasonal regime frequency is mostly driven by the phase of the Southern Annular Mode over Antarctica, mid-latitude dynamics over the Southern Ocean like the Pacific South American mode, and …
Dynamics of Rossby Wave Packets in a Quantitative Potential Vorticity–Potential Temperature Framework
2016
Abstract Rossby wave packets (RWPs) have been associated with increased atmospheric predictability but also with the growth and propagation of forecast uncertainty. To address the important question of under which conditions RWPs imply high and low predictability, a potential vorticity–potential temperature (PV–θ) framework is introduced to diagnose RWP dynamics. Finite-amplitude RWPs along the midlatitude waveguide are considered and are represented by the synoptic-scale, wavelike undulations of the tropopause. The evolution of RWPs is examined by the amplitude evolution of the individual troughs and ridges. Troughs and ridges are identified as PV anomalies on θ levels intersecting the mid…
On the Co-Occurrence of Warm Conveyor Belt Outflows and PV Streamers
2014
Abstract The co-occurrence of warm conveyor belts (WCBs), strongly ascending moist airstreams in extratropical cyclones, and stratospheric potential vorticity (PV) streamers, indicators for breaking Rossby waves on the tropopause, is investigated for a 21-yr period in the Northern Hemisphere using Interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data. WCB outflows and PV streamers are respectively identified as two- and three-dimensional objects and tracked during their life cycle. PV streamers are more frequent than WCB outflows and nearly 15% of all PV streamers co-occur with WCBs during their life cycle, whereas about 60% of all WCB outflows co…
A PV Perspective on the Vertical Structure of Mature Midlatitude Cyclones in the Northern Hemisphere
2012
Abstract Development of extratropical cyclones can be seen as an interplay of three positive potential vorticity anomalies: an upper-level stratospheric intrusion, low-tropospheric diabatically produced potential vorticity (PV), and a warm anomaly at the surface acting as a surrogate PV anomaly. This study, based on the interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) dataset, quantifies the amplitude of the PV anomalies of mature extratropical cyclones in different regions in the Northern Hemisphere on a climatological basis. A tracking algorithm is applied to sea level pressure (SLP) fields to identify cyclone tracks. Surface potential temperature anomalies Δθ and vertical profiles of PV anomalies…
Large-scale Rossby wave and synoptic-scale dynamic analyses of the unusually late 2016 heatwave over Europe
2018
This paper analyses the late summer heatwave over Europe in 2016. Central, western and southwestern Europe were primarily affected by the high temperatures. Seville, Spain, for example, experienced the highest September temperature on record on 5 September 2016, reaching a maximum of 44.8°C, and temperatures in Trier, Germany reached 34.2°C on 13 September 2016. The heatwave was marked by three distinct peaks, accompanied by record‐breaking values for 500hPa geopotential heights and, to a lesser extent, 850hPa temperatures. These peaks were associated with the arrival of high‐amplitude Rossby wave packets in western Europe. The latter originated several days before the event over western No…
Heavy daily precipitation distribution in east-central Franceand west European meteorological patterns
2000
Principal Component Analysis is used to link the spatial distribution of Heavy Daily Precipitation (HDP) in East-Central France with meteorological patterns of the Meteo-France automatic classification, which takes into account 15 different meteorological parameters (e.g. geopotential heights at different levels, humidities, pseudo-adiabatic temperatures) over Western Europe. Every parameter is classified in 10 classes, or synoptic patterns. The annual PCA shows 3 dominant modes of HDP distribution, explaining more than 90% of the total variance. Associated atmospheric situations are obtained by using the scores of the 150 classes (10 per meteorological parameter). Other PCAs (i.e., half-an…
Processes governing the amplification of ensemble spread in a medium-range forecast with large forecast uncertainty
2019
This study provides a process-based perspective on the amplification of forecast uncertainty and forecast errors in ensemble forecasts. A case from the North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment that exhibits large forecast uncertainty is analysed. Two aspects of the ensemble behaviour are considered: (a) the mean divergence of the ensemble members, indicating the general amplification of forecast uncertainty, and (b) the divergence of the best and worst members, indicating extremes in possible error-growth scenarios. To analyse the amplification of forecast uncertainty, a tendency equation for the ensemble variance of potential vorticity (PV) is derived and partitioned into …
Northern Hemisphere extratropical cyclones: A comparison of detection and tracking methods and different reanalyses
2008
Abstract The applicability of three different cyclone detection and tracking schemes is investigated with reanalysis datasets. First, cyclone climatologies and cyclone characteristics of the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) are compared with the NCEP–NCAR dataset using one method. ERA-40 shows systematically more cyclones, and therefore a higher cyclone center density, than the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis dataset. Geostrophically adjusted geopotential height gradients around cyclone centers, a measure of cyclone intensity, are enhanced in ERA-40 compared with the NCEP–NCAR reanalysis dataset. The variability of the number of cyclones per season is significantly correlated between the two reanalysi…