Search results for "Predictive"

Forward likelihood-based predictive approach for space-time point processes

2011

Dealing with data from a space–time point process, the estimation of the conditional intensity function is a crucial issue even if a complete definition of a parametric model is not available. In particular, in case of exploratory contexts or if we want to assess the adequacy of a specific parametric model, some kind of nonparametric estimation procedure could be useful. Often, for these purposes kernel estimators are used and the estimation of the intensity function depends on the estimation of bandwidth parameters. In some fields, like for instance the seismological one, predictive properties of the estimated intensity function are pursued. Since a direct ML approach cannot be used, we pr…

Prospective surveillance of multivariate spatial disease data

2012

Surveillance systems are often focused on more than one disease within a predefined area. On those occasions when outbreaks of disease are likely to be correlated, the use of multivariate surveillance techniques integrating information from multiple diseases allows us to improve the sensitivity and timeliness of outbreak detection. In this article, we present an extension of the surveillance conditional predictive ordinate to monitor multivariate spatial disease data. The proposed surveillance technique, which is defined for each small area and time period as the conditional predictive distribution of those counts of disease higher than expected given the data observed up to the previous t…

Windowed Etas Models With Application To The Chilean Seismic Catalogs

2015

Abstract The seismicity in Chile is estimated using an ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock sequences) space–time point process through a semi-parametric technique to account for the estimation of parametric and nonparametric components simultaneously. The two components account for triggered and background seismicity respectively, and are estimated by alternating a ML estimation for the parametric part and a forward predictive likelihood technique for the nonparametric one. Given the geographic and seismological characteristics of Chile, the sensitivity of the technique with respect to different geographical areas is examined in overlapping successive windows with varying latitude. A different b…

Statistical inference as a decision problem: the choice of sample size

1997

A Bayesian SIRS model for the analysis of respiratory syncytial virus in the region of Valencia, Spain

2014

We present a Bayesian stochastic susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS) model in discrete time to understand respiratory syncytial virus dynamics in the region of Valencia, Spain. A SIRS model based on ordinary differential equations has also been proposed to describe RSV dynamics in the region of Valencia. However, this continuous-time deterministic model is not suitable when the initial number of infected individuals is small. Stochastic epidemic models based on a probability of disease transmission provide a more natural description of the spread of infectious diseases. In addition, by allowing the transmission rate to vary stochastically over time, the proposed model provides…

A stochastic interspecific competition model to predict the behaviour of Listeria monocytogenes in the fermentation process of a traditional Sicilian…

2008

The present paper discusses the use of modified Lotka-Volterra equations in order to stochastically simulate the behaviour of Listeria monocytogenes and Lactic Acid Bacteria (LAB) during the fermentation period (168 h) of a typical Sicilian salami. For this purpose, the differential equation system is set considering T, pH and aw as stochastic variables. Each of them is governed by dynamics that involve a deterministic linear decrease as a function of the time t and an "additive noise" term which instantaneously mimics the fluctuations of T, pH and aw. The choice of a suitable parameter accounting for the interaction of LAB on L. monocytogenes as well as the introduction of appropriate nois…

A Fokker–Planck control framework for multidimensional stochastic processes

2013

AbstractAn efficient framework for the optimal control of probability density functions (PDFs) of multidimensional stochastic processes is presented. This framework is based on the Fokker–Planck equation that governs the time evolution of the PDF of stochastic processes and on tracking objectives of terminal configuration of the desired PDF. The corresponding optimization problems are formulated as a sequence of open-loop optimality systems in a receding-horizon control strategy. Many theoretical results concerning the forward and the optimal control problem are provided. In particular, it is shown that under appropriate assumptions the open-loop bilinear control function is unique. The res…

Modeling of Sensory Characteristics Based on the Growth of Food Spoilage Bacteria

2016

During last years theoretical works shed new light and proposed new hypothesis on the mechanisms which regulate the time behaviour of biological populations in different natural systems. Despite of this, the role of environmental variables in ecological systems is still an open question. Filling this gap of knowledge is a crucial task for a deeper comprehension of the dynamics of biological populations in real ecosystems. In this work we study how the dynamics of food spoilage bacteria influences the sensory characteristics of fresh fish specimens. This topic is crucial for a better understanding of the role played by the bacterial growth on the organoleptic properties, and for the quality …

Noise Induced Phenomena in the Dynamics of Two Competing Species

2015

Noise through its interaction with the nonlinearity of the living systems can give rise to counter-intuitive phenomena. In this paper we shortly review noise induced effects in different ecosystems, in which two populations compete for the same resources. We also present new results on spatial patterns of two populations, while modeling real distributions of anchovies and sardines. The transient dynamics of these ecosystems are analyzed through generalized Lotka-Volterra equations in the presence of multiplicative noise, which models the interaction between the species and the environment. We find noise induced phenomena such as quasi-deterministic oscillations, stochastic resonance, noise …

Vergleich der prognostischen Aussagefähigkeit der Catterall- und Herring-Klassifikation bei Patienten mit Morbus Perthes

2008

QUESTION Investigation of the predictive value of the Catterall- as compared to the Herring-classification in patients with Perthes disease. METHOD A radiological follow-up study including 53 patients with a total of 59 affected hips was carried out. In the initial diagnosis the Catterall-, Waldenstrom- and Herring-stages were assessed. The epiphyseal ratio, the head-neck ratio and the lateral subluxation were measured and compared at the time of diagnosis, fragmentation stage and in a follow-up examination, which was carried out 4, 9 years after diagnosis on the average. The results of the follow-up examination were assessed using the Mose-classification and compared as well. In addition t…