Search results for "Probabilistic"
showing 10 items of 380 documents
Variable selection in the analysis of energy consumption-growth nexus
2015
There is abundant empirical literature that focuses on whether energy consumption is a critical driver of economic growth. The evolution of this literature has largely consisted of attempts to solve the problems and answer the criticisms arising from earlier studies. One of the most common criticisms is that previous work concentrates on the bivariate relationship, energy consumption–economic growth. Many authors try to overcome this critique using control variables. However, the choice of these variables has been ad hoc, made according to the subjective economic rationale of the authors. Our contribution to this literature is to apply a robust probabilistic model to select the explanatory …
Blind justice: An experimental analysis of random punishment in team production
2010
We study the effect of blind punishment in a team production experiment, in which subjects choose non-observable effort levels. In this setting, a random exclusion mechanism is introduced, linked to the normalized group performance (R, from 0 to 1). Every round, each subject is non-excluded from the collective profit with probability R (and with probability 1 ! R gets no benefit from the group account). Punishment does not depend on the individual behavior, but the probability of being punished reflects collective performance. As the exclusion probability is computed at the group level, no individual information is needed to implement exclusion. However, the probabilistic punishment risks t…
Empirical definition of social types in the analysis of inequality of opportunity: a latent classes approach
2014
The empirical analysis of inequality of opportunity centres on disparities between social types, defined by the exposure to circumstances beyond individual control. Despite this, its main theoretical foundation—the Roemer model—does not indicate how to carry out, in practice, the required partition of the population into such types. This paper operationalises this definition of social types using a latent classes approach. Our specification is embedded in a probabilistic extension of the canonical Roemer model, which assumes that the relevant population consists of a finite number of latent types, from which each individual can be treated as a random draw. This makes possible the use of the…
Emotions in a cognitive architecture for human robot interactions
2004
A robot architecture is proposed in which cognitive models of emotions are modelled in terms of conceptual spaces. The architecture has been implemented in a anthropomorphic robotic hand system. Experimental results are described related to an experimental setup in which the robot system plays Rock Paper Scissor against a human opponent Copyright © 2004, American Association for Artificial Intelligence (www.aaai.org).
An imprecise Fault Tree Analysis for the estimation of the Rate of OCcurrence Of Failure (ROCOF)
2013
Abstract The paper proposes an imprecise Fault Tree Analysis in order to characterize systems affected by the lack of reliability data. Differently from other research works, the paper introduces a classification of basic events into two categories, namely Initiators and Enablers . Actually, in real industrial systems some events refer to component failures or process parameter deviations from normal operating conditions ( Initiators ), whereas others refer to the functioning of safety barriers to be activated on demand ( Enablers ). As a consequence, the output parameter of interest is not the classical probability of occurrence of the top event, but its Rate of OCcurrence (ROCOF) over a s…
Presenting a Multi-level Superstructure Optimization Approach for Mechatronic System Design
2010
Synergism and integration in the design process is what sets apart a Mechatronic System from a traditional, multidisciplinary system. However the typical design approach has been to divide the design problem into sub problems for each technology area (mechanics, electronics and control) and describe the interface between the technologies, whereas the lack of well-established, systematic engineering methods to form the basic set-off in analysis and design of complete mechatronic systems has been obvious. The focus of the current paper is therefore to present an integrated design approach for mechatronic system design, utilizing a multi-level superstructure optimization based approach. Finall…
Implementation of the driver training curriculum in Spain – An analysis based on the Goals for Driver Education (GDE) framework
2014
Abstract The Goals for Driver Education (GDE) framework represents a conceptual outline of the goals to be satisfied in driver education (Hatakka et al., 2002). We aimed to analyze the implementation of the driver training curriculum in Spain, taking this framework as reference; the Spanish driving instructors was the target population from which to gather the information to be analyzed. For this purpose, we developed the DTCI (Driver Training Curriculum Implementation) scale as well as a number of questions concerning the driving instructors’ opinions about their own training as instructors, and they were included in a survey that provided information for a probabilistic sample of 676 driv…
Application of Monte Carlo technique to evaluate the power injectable on electrical grid by wind farms
2008
This paper is part of a research aimed at assessing the impact of wind generation on the transmission grid of Sicily, second among the Italian regions for wind power installed. To assess the maximum degree of wind generation penetrability in full compliance with the safe operation of the system, it seemed necessary to investigate the reports of contemporary winds and their territorial correlations when load assumes the peak or the minimum. Given the nature of the problem, it has been used a method of analysis based on the application of stochastic simulation techniques type Monte Carlo. In the paper, after describing the current state of wind energy generation in Sicily and development scen…
Load management for voltage security using probabilistic fuzzy decision tree method
2016
During contingency, load management is most important in planning, monitoring and controlling of power system. In transmission system, there is limit for controlling the reactive power in large size power network. In order to manage heavy loading on transmission, load management is necessary to avoid voltage collapse. This paper presents a methodology for load management considering voltage security assessment using probabilistic fuzzy decision tree (PFDT) technique. By using probabilistic fuzzy decision tree method, the load management is calculated in optimal manner in real time and insecure operating conditions are observed. With the help of this method, a real time load management plan …
Risk Based Inspection Planning for Fatigue Damage in Offshore Steel Structures
2015
High fatigue reliability is one of the most important design criteria for welded offshore steel structures. Due to repeated wave loading fatigue cracks may initiate and grow in welded joints that are important for the integrity of these structures. The present paper presents the methodology and the practical calculations for risk based inspection planning for fatigue cracks in welded details. Due to the uncertainty in the variables involved in the problem the planning has to be carried out by stochastic modeling and risk based assessments. Scatter in potential crack growth has to be analyzed by applied probabilistic facture mechanics and the uncertainty in the performance of the actual insp…