Search results for "Probability Theory"
showing 10 items of 269 documents
Predicting event soil loss from bare plots at two Italian sites
2013
Abstract Including runoff in USLE-type empirical models is expected to improve plot soil loss prediction at the event temporal scale and literature yields encouraging signs of the possibility to simply estimate runoff at these spatial and temporal scales. The objective of this paper was to develop an estimating procedure of event soil loss from bare plots (length = 11–44 m, slope steepness = 14.9–16.0%) at two Italian sites, i.e. Masse, in Umbria, and Sparacia, in Sicily, having a similar sand content (5–7%) but different silt (33% at Sparacia, 59% at Masse) and clay (62% and 34%, respectively) contents. A test of alternative erosivity indices for the Masse station showed that the best perf…
Uncertainty and Equifinality in Calibrating Distributed Roughness Coefficients in a Flood Propagation Model with Limited Data
1998
Monte-Carlo simulations of a two-dimensional finite element model of a flood in the southern part of Sicily were used to explore the parameter space of distributed bed-roughness coefficients. For many real-world events specific data are extremely limited so that there is not only fuzziness in the information available to calibrate the model, but fuzziness in the degree of acceptability of model predictions based upon the different parameter values, owing to model structural errors. Here the GLUE procedure is used to compare model predictions and observations for a certain event, coupled with both a fuzzy-rule-based calibration, and a calibration technique based upon normal and heteroscedast…
Rainfall erosivity over the Calabrian region
1997
Abstract Following the results of a study carried out for the neighbouring Sicilian region, this paper reports a study of the applicability of the annual value, Faj, of the Arnouldus index to represent the erosion risk in Calabrian region. Firstly, By using 214 values of the mean annual value of the erosivity index, FF, and a Kriging interpolation method, an isoerosivity map is plotted. Then, in order to predict the erosion risk for an event of any return period, the probability distribution of the Faj index is studied. An in situ statistical analysis, carried out by using candidate distributions with two parameters (Gauss, LN2, EV1 and Weibull distribution), showed that the EV1 and LN2 law…
Testing the long term applicability of USLE-M equation at a olive orchard microcatchment in Spain
2016
Abstract Universal Soil Loss Equation USLE-based erosion models have been used extensively to complement erosion measurements, to understand the interactions of the different geophysical features into erosion processes and to assess adequate alternative management practices and scenarios analyses. Despite its proved usefulness on different land-uses around the world, there is an urgent need to set up simple tools which do not require an advanced management expertise in terms of both choose of model parameters and calculation ability and which are accurate particularly at the event scale. In this paper the suitability of the Modified USLE (USLE-M) model at the event and the annual scale were…
Testing alternative erosivity indices to predict event soil loss from bare plots in Southern Italy
2009
Methods for predicting unit plot soil loss for the ‘Sparacia’ Sicilian (Southern Italy) site were developed using 316 simultaneous measurements of runoff and soil loss from individual bare plots varying in length from 11 to 44 m. The event unit plot soil loss was directly proportional to an erosivity index equal to (QREI30)1·47, being QREI30 the runoff ratio (QR) times the single storm erosion index (EI30). The developed relationship represents a modified version of the USLE-M, and therefore it was named USLE-MM. By the USLE-MM, a constant erodibility coefficient was deduced for plots of different lengths, suggesting that in this case the calculated erodibility factor is representative of a…
Moving Averages for Market Timing
2016
This paper begins by presenting the moving average methodology of detecting the direction of a trend and identifying turning points in the trend in real time. The paper then proceeds to introduce the general weighted moving average, derives some of its key properties, and discusses how to quantitatively assess the two important characteristics of a moving average: the average lag time and the smoothness. Finally the paper aims to give an overview of some specific types of moving averages used in market timing. These types include regular moving averages, moving averages of moving averages, and mixed moving averages with less lag time. Different types of moving averages are compared to each …
Types of Moving Averages
2017
This chapter presents a detailed review of all ordinary types of moving averages, as well as some exotic types of moving averages. These exotic moving averages include moving averages of moving averages and mixed moving averages with less average lag time. For the majority of moving averages, this chapter computes the closed-form solutions for the average lag time and smoothness. This chapter also demonstrates that the average lag time of a moving average can easily be manipulated; therefore the notion of the average lag time has very little to do with the delay time in the identification of turning points in a price trend.
Measuring socio-demographic differences in volunteers with a value-based index: illustration in a mega event
2013
The phenomenon of volunteering can be analysed as a consumer experience through the concept of value as a trade-off between benefits and costs. In event volunteering, both the expected value (pre-experienced) and the perceived value (post-experienced) of volunteering can be assessed. With this purpose, an online quantitative survey is conducted with a sample of 711 volunteers in a religious mega event, with questions related to five dimensions of their experience: efficiency, social value, play, spirituality and time spent. These five scales, properly tested are used for building a multidimensional index of both the expected and perceived value of the volunteer experience. ANOVAs test show …
Probabilistic inferences from conjoined to iterated conditionals
2017
Abstract There is wide support in logic, philosophy, and psychology for the hypothesis that the probability of the indicative conditional of natural language, P ( if A then B ) , is the conditional probability of B given A, P ( B | A ) . We identify a conditional which is such that P ( if A then B ) = P ( B | A ) with de Finetti's conditional event, B | A . An objection to making this identification in the past was that it appeared unclear how to form compounds and iterations of conditional events. In this paper, we illustrate how to overcome this objection with a probabilistic analysis, based on coherence, of these compounds and iterations. We interpret the compounds and iterations as cond…
Emotional after‐effects on the P3 component of the event‐related brain potential
2003
Agrowing body of literature indicates that affective states can influence cognitive processes. The core assumption of Ellis and Ashbrook's (1988) model explaining these emotional after-effects on cognition is that the emotional state regulates the allocation of processing resources. A negative emotional state is supposed to pre-empt capacity normally allocated to the cognitive task at hand. This is assumed to occur because the negative emotional state leads to an increase in intrusive, irrelevant thoughts, which compete with relevant cognitive activities and thus result in a lack of attention given to relevant features of the task to be performed. In the present study, the hypothesis that n…