Search results for "Probability Theory"
showing 10 items of 269 documents
Reassessing Accuracy Rates of Median Decisions
2007
We show how Bruno de Finetti''s fundamental theorem of prevision has computable applications in statistical problems that involve only partial information. Specifically, we assess accuracy rates for median decision procedures used in the radiological diagnosis of asbestosis. Conditional exchangeability of individual radiologists'' diagnoses is recognized as more appropriate than independence which is commonly presumed. The FTP yields coherent bounds on probabilities of interest when available information is insufficient to determine a complete distribution. Further assertions that are natural to the problem motivate a partial ordering of conditional probabilities, extending the computation …
Multivariate nonparametric estimation of the Pickands dependence function using Bernstein polynomials
2017
Abstract Many applications in risk analysis require the estimation of the dependence among multivariate maxima, especially in environmental sciences. Such dependence can be described by the Pickands dependence function of the underlying extreme-value copula. Here, a nonparametric estimator is constructed as the sample equivalent of a multivariate extension of the madogram. Shape constraints on the family of Pickands dependence functions are taken into account by means of a representation in terms of Bernstein polynomials. The large-sample theory of the estimator is developed and its finite-sample performance is evaluated with a simulation study. The approach is illustrated with a dataset of…
Fractional Brownian motion and Martingale-differences
2004
Abstract We generalize a result of Sottinen (Finance Stochastics 5 (2001) 343) by proving an approximation theorem for the fractional Brownian motion, with H> 1 2 , using martingale-differences.
p-harmonic coordinates for Hölder metrics and applications
2017
We show that on any Riemannian manifold with H¨older continuous metric tensor, there exists a p-harmonic coordinate system near any point. When p = n this leads to a useful gauge condition for regularity results in conformal geometry. As applications, we show that any conformal mapping between manifolds having C α metric tensors is C 1+α regular, and that a manifold with W1,n ∩ C α metric tensor and with vanishing Weyl tensor is locally conformally flat if n ≥ 4. The results extend the works [LS14, LS15] from the case of C 1+α metrics to the H¨older continuous case. In an appendix, we also develop some regularity results for overdetermined elliptic systems in divergence form. peerReviewed
A weighted combined effect measure for the analysis of a composite time-to-first-event endpoint with components of different clinical relevance
2018
Composite endpoints combine several events within a single variable, which increases the number of expected events and is thereby meant to increase the power. However, the interpretation of results can be difficult as the observed effect for the composite does not necessarily reflect the effects for the components, which may be of different magnitude or even point in adverse directions. Moreover, in clinical applications, the event types are often of different clinical relevance, which also complicates the interpretation of the composite effect. The common effect measure for composite endpoints is the all-cause hazard ratio, which gives equal weight to all events irrespective of their type …
PROBABILISTIC QUANTIFICATION OF HAZARDS: A METHODOLOGY USING SMALL ENSEMBLES OF PHYSICS-BASED SIMULATIONS AND STATISTICAL SURROGATES
2015
This paper presents a novel approach to assessing the hazard threat to a locale due to a large volcanic avalanche. The methodology combines: (i) mathematical modeling of volcanic mass flows; (ii) field data of avalanche frequency, volume, and runout; (iii) large-scale numerical simulations of flow events; (iv) use of statistical methods to minimize computational costs, and to capture unlikely events; (v) calculation of the probability of a catastrophic flow event over the next T years at a location of interest; and (vi) innovative computational methodology to implement these methods. This unified presentation collects elements that have been separately developed, and incorporates new contri…
Sample-size calculation and reestimation for a semiparametric analysis of recurrent event data taking robust standard errors into account
2014
In some clinical trials, the repeated occurrence of the same type of event is of primary interest and the Andersen-Gill model has been proposed to analyze recurrent event data. Existing methods to determine the required sample size for an Andersen-Gill analysis rely on the strong assumption that all heterogeneity in the individuals' risk to experience events can be explained by known covariates. In practice, however, this assumption might be violated due to unknown or unmeasured covariates affecting the time to events. In these situations, the use of a robust variance estimate in calculating the test statistic is highly recommended to assure the type I error rate, but this will in turn decr…
k-Step shape estimators based on spatial signs and ranks
2010
In this paper, the shape matrix estimators based on spatial sign and rank vectors are considered. The estimators considered here are slight modifications of the estimators introduced in Dümbgen (1998) and Oja and Randles (2004) and further studied for example in Sirkiä et al. (2009). The shape estimators are computed using pairwise differences of the observed data, therefore there is no need to estimate the location center of the data. When the estimator is based on signs, the use of differences also implies that the estimators have the so called independence property if the estimator, that is used as an initial estimator, has it. The influence functions and limiting distributions of the es…
Fractional calculus approach to the statistical characterization of random variables and vectors
2009
Fractional moments have been investigated by many authors to represent the density of univariate and bivariate random variables in different contexts. Fractional moments are indeed important when the density of the random variable has inverse power-law tails and, consequently, it lacks integer order moments. In this paper, starting from the Mellin transform of the characteristic function and by fractional calculus method we present a new perspective on the statistics of random variables. Introducing the class of complex moments, that include both integer and fractional moments, we show that every random variable can be represented within this approach, even if its integer moments diverge. A…
Affine-invariant rank tests for multivariate independence in independent component models
2016
We consider the problem of testing for multivariate independence in independent component (IC) models. Under a symmetry assumption, we develop parametric and nonparametric (signed-rank) tests. Unlike in independent component analysis (ICA), we allow for the singular cases involving more than one Gaussian independent component. The proposed rank tests are based on componentwise signed ranks, à la Puri and Sen. Unlike the Puri and Sen tests, however, our tests (i) are affine-invariant and (ii) are, for adequately chosen scores, locally and asymptotically optimal (in the Le Cam sense) at prespecified densities. Asymptotic local powers and asymptotic relative efficiencies with respect to Wilks’…