Search results for "Probability Theory"
showing 10 items of 269 documents
The processing of mispredicted and unpredicted sensory inputs interact differently with attention
2018
International audience; Prediction and attention are fundamental brain functions in the service of perception. Interestingly, previous investigations found prediction effects independent of attention in some cases but attention-dependent in other cases. The discrepancy might be related to whether the prediction effect was revealed by comparing mis-predicted event (where there is incorrect prediction) or unpredicted event (where there is no precise prediction) against predicted event, which are associated with different precision-weighted prediction error. Here we conducted a joint analysis on four published electroencephalography (EEG) datasets which allow for proper dissociation of mispred…
Mania risk is characterized by an aberrant optimistic update bias for positive life events
2017
Abstract Background Early cognitive models of mania posit that a cognitive triad consisting of unrealistically optimistic beliefs about the self, world and future may predispose vulnerable individuals to develop manic symptoms. Hypomanic personality traits (HYP) pose such a vulnerability factor in the etiopathogenesis of mania. Methods To test the cognitive tenet of overly optimistic views of the future, 24 individuals with high-HYP and 24 age- and sex-matched controls (low-HYP) performed a belief update paradigm, during which they estimated their personal chances to experience future positive and negative life events. Afterwards, they were presented with the statistical likelihood of each …
Animacy-based predictions in language comprehension are robust: contextual cues modulate but do not nullify them
2015
Couldn't a humble coconut hurt a gardener? At least in the first instance, the brain seems to assume that it should not: we perceive inanimate entities such as coconuts as poor event instigators ("Actors"). Ideally, entities causing a change in another entity should be animate and this assumption not only influences event perception but also carries over to language comprehension. We present three auditory event-related brain potential (ERP) studies on the processing of inanimate and animate subjects and objects in simple transitive sentences in Tamil. ERP responses were measured at the second argument (event participant) in all three studies. Experiment 1 employed all possible animacy comb…
Optimal selection of individuals for repeated covariate measurements in follow-up studies
2016
Repeated covariate measurements bring important information on the time-varying risk factors in long epidemiological follow-up studies. However, due to budget limitations, it may be possible to carry out the repeated measurements only for a subset of the cohort. We study cost-efficient alternatives for the simple random sampling in the selection of the individuals to be remeasured. The proposed selection criteria are based on forms of the D-optimality. The selection methods are compared with the simulation studies and illustrated with the data from the East–West study carried out in Finland from 1959 to 1999. The results indicate that cost savings can be achieved if the selection is focuse…
Search for neutral MSSM Higgs bosons at LEP
2006
The four LEP collaborations, ALEPH, DELPHI, L3 and OPAL, have searched for the neutral Higgs bosons which are predicted by the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model (MSSM). The data of the four collaborations are statistically combined and examined for their consistency with the background hypothesis and with a possible Higgs boson signal. The combined LEP data show no significant excess of events which would indicate the production of Higgs bosons. The search results are used to set upper bounds on the cross-sections of various Higgs-like event topologies. The results are interpreted within the MSSM in a number of "benchmark" models, including CP-conserving and CP-violating scenarios. Thes…
Basic Measure Theory
2020
In this chapter, we lay the measure theoretic foundations of probability theory. We introduce the classes of sets (semirings, rings, algebras, σ-algebras) that allow for a systematic treatment of events and random observations. Using the measure extension theorem, we construct measures, in particular probability measures on σ-algebras. Finally, we define random variables as measurable maps and study the σ-algebras generated by certain maps.
A taylor series model to evaluate the interelemental effects in X-ray fluorescence analysis, applied to the iron-zirconium-diluent system
1995
A semi-empirical model has been developed to quantify the interelemental effects in X-ray fluorescence analysis. The measured X-ray fluorescence intensity has been expressed as a function of the different fluorescence elements composing the sample. this complex function has become an operative function via a Taylor series development. An explication has been given for the significance of the different terms of the series. These terms respond to mathematical functions known as characteristic functions for each chemical system. A parameter (B) has been defined which makes it possible to quantify the influence of the interelemental effect as a function of the analyte concentration (C) and that…
A new hybrid method to improve the ultra-short-term prediction of LOD
2019
Accurate, short-term predictions of Earth orientation parameters (EOP) are needed for many real-time applications including precise tracking and navigation of interplanetary spacecraft, climate forecasting, and disaster prevention. Out of the EOP, the LOD (length of day), which represents the changes in the Earth’s rotation rate, is the most challenging to predict since it is largely affected by the torques associated with changes in atmospheric circulation. In this study, the combination of Copula-based analysis and singular spectrum analysis (SSA) method is introduced to improve the accuracy of the forecasted LOD. The procedure operates as follows: First, we derive the dependence structur…
Predicting maximum annual values of event soil loss by USLE-type models
2017
Abstract Previous experimental investigations showed that a large proportion of total plot soil erosion over a long time period is generally due to relatively few, large storms. Consequently, erosion models able to accurately predict the highest plot soil loss values have practical importance since they could allow to improve the design of soil conservation practices in an area of interest. At present USLE-based models are attractive from a practical point of view, since the input data are generally easy to obtain. The USLE was developed with specific reference to the mean annual temporal scale but it was also applied at the event scale. Other models, such as the USLE-M and the USLE-MM, app…
Exploiting historical rainfall and landslide data in a spatial database for the derivation of critical rainfall thresholds
2017
Critical rainfall thresholds for landslides are powerful tools for preventing landslide hazard. The thresholds are commonly estimated empirically starting from rainfall events that triggered landslides in the past. The creation of the appropriate rainfall–landslide database is one of the main efforts in this approach. In fact, an accurate agreement between the landslide and rainfall information, in terms of location and timing, is essential in order to correctly estimate the rainfall–landslide relationships. A further issue is taking into account the average moisture conditions prior the triggering event, which reasonably may be crucial in determining the sufficient amount of precipitation.…