Search results for "Probability."
showing 10 items of 3396 documents
Modeling of female human body shapes for apparel design based on cross mean sets
2014
This paper is concerned with a method to build prototypes of human bodies that can be used for apparel design. One of the most important issues in the apparel development process is to define a sizing system to provide a good fitting for the majority of the population. Since anthropometric measures do not present the same linear growth with size in each dimension, it is very important to find a prototype that represents as accurately as possible each class in the sizing system. In this paper we propose a method based on the concept of random compact mean set to define prototypes in apparel design. From a cloud of 3D points obtained with a 3D scanner a solid that represents the human body is…
Bayesian Hierarchical Models for Random Routes in Finite Populations
1996
In many practical situations involving sampling from finite populations, it is not possible (or it is prohibitely expensive) to access, or to even produce, a listing of all of the units in the population. In these situations, inferences can not be based on random samples from the population. Random routes are widely used procedures to collect data in absence of well defined sampling frames, and they usually have either been improperly analyzed as random samples, or entirely ignored as useless. We present here a Bayesian analysis of random routes that incorporates the information provided but carefully takes into account the non- randomness in the selection of the units.
Inferring Learning Strategies from Cultural Frequency Data
2015
Social learning has been identified as one of the fundamentals of culture and therefore the understanding of why and how individuals use social information presents one of the big questions in cultural evolution. To date much of the theoretical work on social learning has been done in isolation of data. Evolutionary models often provide important insight into which social learning strategies are expected to have evolved but cannot tell us which strategies human populations actually use. In this chapter we explore how much information about the underlying learning strategies can be extracted by analysing the temporal occurrence or usage patterns of different cultural variants in a population…
Resident and transient dynamics, site fidelity and survival in wintering Blackcaps Sylvia atricapilla: evidence from capture-recapture analyses
2007
In their winter quarters, migrant birds may either remain within a small area (resident strategy) or move frequently over a large area looking for locally abundant food (transient strategy). It has been suggested that both strategies could simultaneously occur in the same population. We used time-since-marking capture‐recapture models to infer the coexistence of these two behavioural strategies (transient and resident) among wintering Blackcaps Sylvia atricapilla using weekly recapture data over a 7-year period. A related question is whether Blackcaps, if surviving to the next winter, always return to the same wintering area, so we also used this approach to analyse winter site fidelity and…
The use of Markovian metapopulation models: Reducing the dimensionality of transition matrices by self-organizing Kohonen networks
2006
Abstract Markovian population models are used in conservation biology to find an accurate estimate of a population's extinction probability. Such models require handling of large transition matrices and calculations are thus extremely time-consuming when large populations have to be studied. To accomplish these problems, some authors have suggested to group together several states/sizes of the population. Unfortunately, this so-called binning frequently results in errors in estimates obtained. The main problem with binning is that it assumes that grouped states behave nearly identical with respect to the underlying stochastic population process and that so far binning methods implicitly vio…
Estimating Polling Accuracy in Multiparty Elections Using Surveybias
2016
Any rigorous discussion of bias in opinion surveys requires a scalar measure of survey accuracy. Martin, Traugott, and Kennedy (2005, Public Opinion Quarterly 69: 342-369) propose such a measure A for the two-party case, and Arzheimer and Evans (2014, Political Analysis 22: 31-44) demonstrate how measures A'i, B, and Bw for the more common multiparty case can be derived. We describe the commands surveybias, surveybiasi, and surveybiasseries, which enable the fast computation of these binomial and multinomial measures of bias in opinion surveys. While the examples are based on pre-election surveys, the methodology applies to any multinomial variable whose true distribution in the population…
A Discrete-Time Hazard Model for Loans: Some Evidence from Italian Banking System
2012
Problem statement: The probability of default, PD, is a crucial probl em for banks. In the last years international accords (Basel, Basel 2 an d Basel 3) have incentived banks to adopt objective s systems to evaluating and monitoring risk of defaul t in order to predict PD for new loans based on borrower's characteristics. The aim of this study i s to introduce a discrete survival model to study t he risk of default and to propose the empirical eviden ce by the Italian banking system. Approach: Survival analysis is used if we are interested in w hether and when an event occurs. In this context th e event occurrence represents a borrower's transition from one state, loan in bonis that is not…
Application of a Bayesian Spatiotemporal Surveillance Method to NYC Syndromic Data
2014
Incorporating prior knowledge (e.g., the spatial distribution of zip codes and background population effects) into a model using Bayesian methods could potentially improve outbreak detection. We adapted a previously described Bayesian model-based spatiotemporal surveillance technique to daily respiratory syndrome counts in NYC Emergency Department data in 2009, the year of the H1N1 influenza pandemic. Citywide, 56 alarms were produced across 15 zip codes, all during days of elevated respiratory visits. Future work includes evaluating our choice of baseline length, considering other alarm thresholds, and conducting a formal evaluation of the method across five syndromes in NYC.
Bayesian reanalysis of a quantitative trait locus accounting for multiple environments by scaling in broilers1
2006
A Bayesian method was developed to handle QTL analyses of multiple experimental data of outbred populations with heterogeneity of variance between sexes for all random effects. The method employed a scaled reduced animal model with random polygenic and QTL allelic effects. A parsimonious model specification was applied by choosing assumptions regarding the covariance structure to limit the number of parameters to estimate. Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms were applied to obtain marginal posterior densities. Simulation demonstrated that joint analysis of multiple environments is more powerful than separate single trait analyses of each environment. Measurements on broiler BW obtained from…
<em>Grid</em> poblacional 2011 para España. Evaluación metodológica de diversas posibilidades de elaboración
2017
Este trabajo presenta una evaluación, desde el punto de vista del usuario, de la malla regular (grid) de población, con resolución de 1 km2 , que el Instituto Nacional de Estadística (INE) ha hecho pública a partir de los resultados del Censo de Población y Viviendas 2011. Esta forma de difusión de resultados resulta muy novedosa y ofrece un gran valor analítico. Por primera vez esta información sobre la distribución espacial de la población se ha generado desde abajo (bottom-up) para el conjunto de España, es decir, a partir del conocimiento de las coordenadas de cada hogar, considerando como tales las del edificio donde reside. La disponibilidad de otra grid con idéntica resolución, elabo…