Search results for "Probability."
showing 10 items of 3396 documents
Bayesian semiparametric long memory models for discretized event data
2020
We introduce a new class of semiparametric latent variable models for long memory discretized event data. The proposed methodology is motivated by a study of bird vocalizations in the Amazon rain forest; the timings of vocalizations exhibit self-similarity and long range dependence. This rules out Poisson process based models where the rate function itself is not long range dependent. The proposed class of FRActional Probit (FRAP) models is based on thresholding, a latent process. This latent process is modeled by a smooth Gaussian process and a fractional Brownian motion by assuming an additive structure. We develop a Bayesian approach to inference using Markov chain Monte Carlo and show g…
Assessment of Cybersecurity Risks: Maritime Automated Piloting Process
2022
A modern society is a combination of several critical infrastructures, of which international and national maritime transportation systems are essential parts. Digitalization makes it possible to increase levels of autonomy in maritime systems. It also means fully existing cyberenvironments in maritime processes. In cyberenvironments, it is crucial there is trustable information communication between system elements of the process, alongside the usability, reliability, and integrity of systems data in the operating environment. In order to develop maritime autonomy in Finland the Sea4Value / Fairway (S4VF) research program has been developed. At the first stage of the program, the main goal…
What drives increases in hindsight impressions after the reception of biased media content?
2021
Prior research has shown that reading biased media content (e.g., Wikipedia articles) can increase recipients' hindsight bias. It remained unclear, however, which features of the biased texts led to such an increase. We examined this question in a longitudinal experimental study (N = 190). Specifically, we tested whether repeated exposure to already known information (H₁), a more coherent presentation of the information (H₂), or the presentation of novel information (H₃) affected readers' hindsight impressions of likelihood, inevitability, and foreseeability. To this end, participants initially learned about an event by reading several short news, and, 1 week later, received one of several …
Unawareness, Priors and Posteriors
2008
Abstract. This note contains first thoughts on awareness of unawareness in a simple dynamic context where a decision situation is repeated over time. The main consequence of increasing awareness is that the model the decision maker uses, and the prior which it contains, becomes richer over time. The decision maker is prepared to this change, and we show that if a projection-consistency axiom is satisfied unawareness does not affect the value of her estimate of a payoff-relevant conditional probability (although it may weaken confidence in such estimate). Probability-zero events however pose a challenge to this axiom, and if that fails, even estimate values will be different if the decision …
Analysis of a viscoelastic phase separation model
2020
A new model for viscoelastic phase separation is proposed, based on a systematically derived conservative two-fluid model. Dissipative effects are included by phenomenological viscoelastic terms. By construction, the model is consistent with the second law of thermodynamics, and we study well-posedness of the model, i.e., existence of weak solutions, a weak-strong uniqueness principle, and stability with respect to perturbations, which are proven by means of relative energy estimates. A good qualitative agreement with mesoscopic simulations is observed in numerical tests.
Technique for prediction of outcome of election of national leaders.
1968
A technique is presented for evaluating the degree of support a candidate for national public office is likely to have at the polls. The technique involves the use of an adjective check list, Activity Vector Analysis (AVA), for which forms are available in French, Spanish, German, and Italian. Data are presented and discussed relative to a study made by the authors using this technique of public-image analysis just prior to the 1964 presidential elections in the United States. The data are based on the personality profiles of Johnson and Goldwater obtained from the public images held of these two candidates by 672 adults drawn from a population of voters representing a wide geographical di…
A role for backward transitional probabilities in word segmentation?
2008
A number of studies have shown that people exploit transitional probabilities between successive syllables to segment a stream of artificial continuous speech into words. It is often assumed that what is actually exploited are the forward transitional probabilities (given XY, the probability that X will be followed by Y ), even though the backward transitional probabilities (the probability that Y has been preceded by X) were equally informative about word structure in the languages involved in those studies. In two experiments, we showed that participants were able to learn the words from an artificial speech stream when the only available cues were the backward transitional probabilities.…
Expectation Damages and Bilateral Cooperative Investments
2012
We examine the efficiency of the standard breach remedy expectation damages in a setting where the buyer invests cooperatively and the seller invests both cooperatively and selfishly. Contracts may specify a required quality level and an upper bound to the seller's coordination costs. We find that it is optimal to write an augmented Cadillac contract in which quality is stipulated such that it cannot be met with positive probability together with a very low price. Thus, the seller becomes a residual claimant and the coordination-cost threshold can be used to balance the incentives of the buyer.
Muscle hypertrophy, strength development, and serum hormones during strength training in elderly women with fibromyalgia.
2005
To examine the effects of strength training on maximal force, cross-sectional area (CSA), and electromyographic (EMG) activity of muscles and serum hormone concentrations in elderly females with fibromyalgia (FM).Twenty-six patients with FM were randomly assigned to a training (FMT; n = 13; mean age 60 years) or a control (FMC; n = 13; 59 years) group. FMT performed progressive strength training twice a week for 21 weeks. The measurements included maximal isometric and concentric leg extension forces, EMG activity of the vastus lateralis and medialis, CSA of the quadriceps femoris, and serum concentrations of testosterone (T), free testosterone (FT), growth hormone (GH), insulin-like growth…
Effects of the type of recovery training on the concentric strength of the knee extensors
1997
The aim of this study was to examine the effects of specific concentric and eccentric training on concentric muscular strength following an initial standardized period of excessive training that combined concentric and eccentric actions. For a period of 12 weeks, 37 young elite female basketball players performed standardized training, which included concentric and eccentric actions at 70% and 110% of one-repetition maximum (1-RM), respectively. They were then divided into three groups that followed 12 week programmes which included concentric (C-E/C, n = 13), eccentric (C-E/E, n = 13) or a combination of both concentric and eccentric (C-E/-E, n = 11) exercises. The standardized and specifi…