Search results for "Probability."
showing 10 items of 3396 documents
Bayesian Immature Survival Analysis of the Largest Colony of Common Murre (Uria aalge) in the Baltic Sea
2019
In long-lived species, such as seabirds, immature survival is the most important life history parameter after adult survival. The assessment of immature survival has often been difficult due to extended periods in which young birds remain unobservable at sea. This study presents results on survival of immature Common Murre (Uria aalge) obtained from an extensive mark-recapture study of a large colony at Stora Karlso in the Baltic Sea, Sweden. This colony, in contrast with other colonies, has the unique feature that many 1-year-old birds return to the colony (12%). Between 2006 and 2016, 28,930 chicks were marked at fledging, of which 5,493 individuals were later resighted in the colony. Ann…
An Algebraic Derivation of Chao’s Estimator of the Number of Species in a Community Highlights the Condition Allowing Chao to Deliver Centered Estima…
2014
Anne Chao proposed a very popular, nonparametric estimator of the species richness of a community, on the basis of a limited size sampling of this community. This expression was originally derived on a statistical basis as a lower-bound estimate of the number of missing species in the sample and provides accordingly a minimal threshold for the estimation of the total species richness of the community. Hereafter, we propose an alternative, algebraic derivation of Chao’s estimator, demonstrating thereby that Chao’s formulation may also provide centered estimates (and not only a lower bound threshold), provided that the sampled communities satisfy a specific type of SAD (species abundance dist…
Estimation of local extinction rates when species detectability covaries with extinction probability: is it a problem ?
2006
Estimating the rate of change of the composition of communities is of direct interest to address many fundamental and applied questions in ecology. One methodological problem is that it is hard to detect all the species present in a community. Nichols et al. presented an estimator of the local extinction rate that takes into account species probability of detection, but little information is available on its performance. However, they predicted that if a covariance between species detection probability and local extinction rate exists in a community, the estimator of local extinction rate complement would be positively biased. Here, we show, using simulations over a wide range of parameters…
Incidence and control of black spot syndrome of tiger nut
2017
Tiger nut (Cyperus esculentum) is a very profitable crop in Valencia, Spain, but in the last years, part of the harvested tubers presents black spots in the skin making them unmarketable. Surveys performed in two consecutive years showed that about 10% of the tubers were severely affected by the black spot syndrome whose aetiology is unknown. Disease control procedures based on selection of tubers used as seed (seed tubers) or treatment with hot-water and/or chemicals were assayed in greenhouse. These assays showed that that this syndrome had a negative impact on the germination rate, tuber size and yield. Selection of asymptomatic seed tubers reduced drastically the incidence of the black …
Local Recruitment in the Greater Flamingo: A New Approach Using Capture- Mark-Recapture Data
1997
International audience; Although the establishment of new individuals in the breeding component of a population is an essential feature of population regulation, only a few attempts have been made to test biological hypotheses about recruitment. Most previous studies rely on ad hoc calculations or are flawed with unwarranted assumptions about survival. We use a recently developed approach, based on capture-mark-recapture, in which analysis of local recruitment is similar to a time-reversed analysis of survival. The basic data set consists of capture histories viewed in reverse order, with initial capture at year of birth, and subsequent observations corresponding to years when the animal ha…
Fishery-dependent and -independent data lead to consistent estimations of essential habitats
2016
AbstractSpecies mapping is an essential tool for conservation programmes as it provides clear pictures of the distribution of marine resources. However, in fishery ecology, the amount of objective scientific information is limited and data may not always be directly comparable. Information about the distribution of marine species can be derived from two main sources: fishery-independent data (scientific surveys at sea) and fishery-dependent data (collection and sampling by observers in commercial vessels). The aim of this paper is to compare whether these two different sources produce similar, complementary, or different results. We compare them in the specific context of identifying the Es…
A laplace type problem for three lattices with non-convex cell
2016
In this paper we consider three lattices with cells represented in Fig. 1, 3 and 5 and we determine the probability that a random segment of constant length intersects a side of lattice. c ⃝2016 All rights reserved.
Novel Threshold Calculations for Remaining Useful Lifetime Estimation of Rolling Element Bearings
2018
The prognostics objective is to avoid sudden machinery breakdowns and to estimate the remaining useful life after initial degradation. Typically, physical health indicators are derived from available sensor data, and a mathematical model is tuned to fit them. The time it takes for the model to reach a failure threshold is the estimated remaining useful life. The failure threshold may be determined from historical failure data, but that is not always readily available. ISO standard 10816–3 defines permissible velocity vibration levels for machines that may be used as a failure threshold. However, velocity vibration is not suitable for bearing prognostics due to the effect of integration from…
A Novel Solution for the Elimination of Mode Switching in Pump-Controlled Single-Rod Cylinders
2020
This paper concerns the stability issue of pump-controlled single-rod cylinders, known as mode switching. First, a review of the topic is provided. Thereafter, the most recently proposed solution for the elimination of mode switching is investigated and shown to result in unstable behavior under certain operating conditions. A theoretical analysis is provided demonstrating the underlying mechanisms of this behavior. Based on the analysis, a novel control strategy is proposed and investigated numerically. Proper operation and stability are demonstrated for a wide range of operating conditions, including situations under which the most recently proposed solution results in unstable behavior a…
Adaptation, coordination, and local interactions via distributed approachability
2017
This paper investigates the relation between cooperation, competition, and local interactions in large distributed multi-agent\ud systems. The main contribution is the game-theoretic problem formulation and solution approach based on the new framework\ud of distributed approachability, and the study of the convergence properties of the resulting game model. Approachability\ud theory is the theory of two-player repeated games with vector payoffs, and distributed approachability is here presented for\ud the first time as an extension to the case where we have a team of agents cooperating against a team of adversaries under local\ud information and interaction structure. The game model turns i…