Search results for "Probability"
showing 10 items of 3417 documents
Robust Mean Field Games
2015
Recently there has been renewed interest in large-scale games in several research disciplines, with diverse application domains as in the smart grid, cloud computing, financial markets, biochemical reaction networks, transportation science, and molecular biology. Prior works have provided rich mathematical foundations and equilibrium concepts but relatively little in terms of robustness in the presence of uncertainties. In this paper, we study mean field games with uncertainty in both states and payoffs. We consider a population of players with individual states driven by a standard Brownian motion and a disturbance term. The contribution is threefold: First, we establish a mean field syste…
Bioclimatic atlas of the terrestrial Arctic
2023
AbstractThe Arctic is the region on Earth that is warming at the fastest rate. In addition to rising means of temperature-related variables, Arctic ecosystems are affected by increasingly frequent extreme weather events causing disturbance to Arctic ecosystems. Here, we introduce a new dataset of bioclimatic indices relevant for investigating the changes of Arctic terrestrial ecosystems. The dataset, called ARCLIM, consists of several climate and event-type indices for the northern high-latitude land areas > 45°N. The indices are calculated from the hourly ERA5-Land reanalysis data for 1950–2021 in a spatial grid of 0.1 degree (~9 km) resolution. The indices are provided in three subsets…
Fourth Moments and Independent Component Analysis
2015
In independent component analysis it is assumed that the components of the observed random vector are linear combinations of latent independent random variables, and the aim is then to find an estimate for a transformation matrix back to these independent components. In the engineering literature, there are several traditional estimation procedures based on the use of fourth moments, such as FOBI (fourth order blind identification), JADE (joint approximate diagonalization of eigenmatrices), and FastICA, but the statistical properties of these estimates are not well known. In this paper various independent component functionals based on the fourth moments are discussed in detail, starting wi…
Bayesian Modeling of Sequential Discoveries
2022
We aim at modelling the appearance of distinct tags in a sequence of labelled objects. Common examples of this type of data include words in a corpus or distinct species in a sample. These sequential discoveries are often summarised via accumulation curves, which count the number of distinct entities observed in an increasingly large set of objects. We propose a novel Bayesian method for species sampling modelling by directly specifying the probability of a new discovery, therefore allowing for flexible specifications. The asymptotic behavior and finite sample properties of such an approach are extensively studied. Interestingly, our enlarged class of sequential processes includes highly tr…
Large-sample properties of unsupervised estimation of the linear discriminant using projection pursuit
2021
We study the estimation of the linear discriminant with projection pursuit, a method that is unsupervised in the sense that it does not use the class labels in the estimation. Our viewpoint is asymptotic and, as our main contribution, we derive central limit theorems for estimators based on three different projection indices, skewness, kurtosis, and their convex combination. The results show that in each case the limiting covariance matrix is proportional to that of linear discriminant analysis (LDA), a supervised estimator of the discriminant. An extensive comparative study between the asymptotic variances reveals that projection pursuit gets arbitrarily close in efficiency to LDA when the…
Networks as mediating variables: a Bayesian latent space approach
2022
AbstractThe use of network analysis to investigate social structures has recently seen a rise due to the high availability of data and the numerous insights it can provide into different fields. Most analyses focus on the topological characteristics of networks and the estimation of relationships between the nodes. We adopt a different perspective by considering the whole network as a random variable conveying the effect of an exposure on a response. This point of view represents a classical mediation setting, where the interest lies in estimating the indirect effect, that is, the effect propagated through the mediating variable. We introduce a latent space model mapping the network into a …
bssm: Bayesian Inference of Non-linear and Non-Gaussian State Space Models in R
2021
We present an R package bssm for Bayesian non-linear/non-Gaussian state space modelling. Unlike the existing packages, bssm allows for easy-to-use approximate inference based on Gaussian approximations such as the Laplace approximation and the extended Kalman filter. The package accommodates also discretely observed latent diffusion processes. The inference is based on fully automatic, adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) on the hyperparameters, with optional importance sampling post-correction to eliminate any approximation bias. The package implements also a direct pseudo-marginal MCMC and a delayed acceptance pseudo-marginal MCMC using intermediate approximations. The package offers …
Deducing self-interaction in eye movement data using sequential spatial point processes
2016
Eye movement data are outputs of an analyser tracking the gaze when a person is inspecting a scene. These kind of data are of increasing importance in scientific research as well as in applications, e.g. in marketing and man-machine interface planning. Thus the new areas of application call for advanced analysis tools. Our research objective is to suggest statistical modelling of eye movement sequences using sequential spatial point processes, which decomposes the variation in data into structural components having interpretation. We consider three elements of an eye movement sequence: heterogeneity of the target space, contextuality between subsequent movements, and time-dependent behaviou…
Existence, uniqueness and Malliavin differentiability of Lévy-driven BSDEs with locally Lipschitz driver
2019
We investigate conditions for solvability and Malliavin differentiability of backward stochastic differential equations driven by a L\'evy process. In particular, we are interested in generators which satisfy a locally Lipschitz condition in the $Z$ and $U$ variable. This includes settings of linear, quadratic and exponential growths in those variables. Extending an idea of Cheridito and Nam to the jump setting and applying comparison theorems for L\'evy-driven BSDEs, we show existence, uniqueness, boundedness and Malliavin differentiability of a solution. The pivotal assumption to obtain these results is a boundedness condition on the terminal value $\xi$ and its Malliavin derivative $D\xi…
The role of information in a two-traders market
2014
In a very simple stock market, made by only two \emph{initially equivalent} traders, we discuss how the information can affect the performance of the traders. More in detail, we first consider how the portfolios of the traders evolve in time when the market is \emph{closed}. After that, we discuss two models in which an interaction with the outer world is allowed. We show that, in this case, the two traders behave differently, depending on \textbf{i)} the amount of information which they receive from outside; and \textbf{ii)}the quality of this information.