Search results for "Rainfal"
showing 10 items of 233 documents
Interannual and decadal SST-forced responses of the West African monsoon
2010
International audience; We review the studies carried out during the African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA)-EU on the changes of interannual sea surface temperature (SST)-West African monsoon (WAM) covariability at multidecadal timescales, together with the influence of global warming (GW). The results obtained in the AMMA-EU suggest the importance of the background state, modulated by natural and anthropogenic variability, in the appearance of different interannual modes. The lack of reliability of current coupled models in giving a realistic assessment for WAM in the future is also stated.
The effects of the Southwest Indian Ocean tropical cyclones on Ethiopian drought
1998
Tropical cyclones are one of the prominent weather systems that are generated over the tropical oceans. The cyclones that develop in the Southwest Indian Ocean (SWIO) usually travel west then southwest and finally recurve to southeast, generally before reaching the East African coast. However, it is shown in this study how SWIO-tropical cyclones/depressions can indirectly affect Ethiopian weather. Using correlation and composite analyses, interannual and intraseasonal rainfall variations in Ethiopia were compared with the frequency and time of occurrence of the tropical cyclones. Years showing the consecutive occurrence of several tropical depressions over the SWIO coincide with the drought…
Mid-century effects of Climate Change on African monsoon dynamics using the A1B emission scenario
2012
Future climate changes in African regions are model-dependent and there is no consensus regarding Sahelian rainfall by the end of this century. Using 12 atmosphere-ocean global climate models of the third Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3) we propose a multi-model (MM) analysis contrasting the 1960–1999 period (20c3m integration) and the 2031–2070 period (A1B emission scenario). The analyses are based on MM response but also on the ‘one model-one vote’ concept to give the same weight to each model. The results show robust signals in the rainfall response, i.e., increasing (decreasing) amounts in central (western) Sahel associated with specific changes in atmospheric dynamics. The…
Classification of intense rainfall days in southern West Africa and associated atmospheric circulation.
2020
Daily rainfall in southern West Africa (4&ndash
Performance of DEMETER calibration for rainfall forecasting purposes: Application to the July–August Sahelian rainfall
2008
International audience; This work assesses and compares the skill of direct and model-output-statistics (MOS) calibrated hindcasts of the July–August rainfall amounts for the dry period 1980–2000 over the Sahel issued from the Development of a European Multimodel Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (DEMETER) experiment, with the aim to highlight among the simulated parameters, i.e., those potentially relevant for rainfall forecasts purposes. Three approaches were used: the DEMETER (1) direct rainfall, (2) MOS-calibrated rainfall, and (3) MOS-calibrated atmospheric dynamics and energy. Canonical correlation analyses (CCA) were employed in the two latter approaches to calib…
The orthogonal structure of Monsoon rainfall variation over Sri Lanka
1992
The spatial organization of Monsoon rainfall over Sri Lanka is examined using Orthogonal Factor Analysis (OFA) on long-term mean monthly rainfall data. Three types of orthogonal structure of Monsoon regime in Sri Lanka have been identified. Interpretation of orthogonal factor scores revealed that a large amount of rainfall occurs from March to October in the southwestern parts of Sri Lanka, from December to February in the eastern parts, and in November in the northern and mid-western parts which are all represented by high positive factor scores. Orthogonal factor scores for the first three factors account for 93.6% of the total variance of mean monthly rainfall and clearly indicate that t…
Brevi considerazioni su piogge intense e potenzialità di produzione del deflusso superficiale in Sicilia
2013
Vengono presentati i metodi aggiornati per la stima delle precipitazioni intense massime annue di fissato tempo di ritorno in Sicilia. Dall‟osservazione della distribuzione spaziale dei parametri assunti nei modelli di stima emergono aree a maggior rischio riguardo l‟intensità di pioggia, qui commentate. Il richiamo a recenti studi che riguardano la produzione del deflusso superficiale a scala media annua o a scala di evento, consente di avanzare alcune considerazioni di tipo spaziale, con particolare attenzione all‟area del messinese, su questa importante propensione idrologica notoriamente fonte di dissesto idrogeologico e di pericolo alluvionale. The updated methods for the estimation of…
Holocene climate variability in Sicily from a discontinuous stalagmite record and the Mesolithic to Neolithic transition
2006
AbstractFabric and stable isotopic composition of a Holocene stalagmite (CR1) from a cave in northern Sicily record changes in paleorainfall in the early Holocene. High δ13C stable isotope values in the calcite deposited from ca. 8500 to ca. 7500 yr ago are interpreted as reflecting periods of high rainfall. The wet phase was interrupted by two periods of multi-century duration characterized by relatively cool and dry winters centered at ca. 8200 and ca. 7500 yr ago, highlighted by low δ13C and δ18O values. A high variability of δ13C values is recorded from ca. 7500 to ca. 6500 yr ago and indicates that the transition from a pluvial early Holocene to the present-day climate conditions was p…
Daily streamlow prediction with uncertainty in ephemeral catchments using the GLUE methodology
2009
Abstract The Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) approach is presented here as a tool for estimating the predictive uncertainty of a rainfall–runoff model. The GLUE methodology allows to recognise the possible equifinality of different parameter sets and assesses the likelihood of a parameters set being acceptable simulator when model predictions are compared to observed field data. The results of the GLUE methodology depend greatly on the choice of the likelihood measure and on the choice of the threshold which determines if a parameters set is behavioural or not. Moreover the sampling size has a strong influence on the uncertainty assessment of the response of a rainfall–…
Identification of Potential Locations for Run-of-River Hydropower Plants Using a GIS-Based Procedure
2019
The increasing demand for renewable and sustainable energy sources has encouraged the development of small run-of-river plants. Preliminary studies are required to assess the technical and economic feasibility of such plants. In this context, the identification of optimal potential run-of-river sites has become a key issue. In this paper, an approach that is based on GIS tools coupled with a hydrological model has been applied to detect potential locations for a run-of-river plant. A great number of locations has been analyzed to identify those that could assure the achievement of different thresholds of potential power. The environmental and economic feasibility for small hydropower projec…