Search results for "Random"
showing 10 items of 3931 documents
Mean square rate of convergence for random walk approximation of forward-backward SDEs
2020
AbstractLet (Y,Z) denote the solution to a forward-backward stochastic differential equation (FBSDE). If one constructs a random walk$B^n$from the underlying Brownian motionBby Skorokhod embedding, one can show$L_2$-convergence of the corresponding solutions$(Y^n,Z^n)$to$(Y, Z).$We estimate the rate of convergence based on smoothness properties, especially for a terminal condition function in$C^{2,\alpha}$. The proof relies on an approximative representation of$Z^n$and uses the concept of discretized Malliavin calculus. Moreover, we use growth and smoothness properties of the partial differential equation associated to the FBSDE, as well as of the finite difference equations associated to t…
On the use of asymptotic expansion in computing the null distribution of page's L-statistic
1989
Suppose that each out of n randomized complete blocks is obtained by observing a jointly continuous random variable taking values in Rk. Page's L-statistic is given then as a sum of i.i.d. lattice variables with finite moments of any order. Applying a well-known theorem on asymptotic expansions for the distribution function of such a sum yields higher order approximations to the significance probability of any observed value of L. The formula obtained by discarding terms smaller than o(n –1) is still very simple to use. Yet, due to it's strong analytical basis, it can be expected to provide substantial improvement on the traditional normal approximation. The results of extensive numerical i…
Bayesian joint ordinal and survival modeling for breast cancer risk assessment
2016
We propose a joint model to analyze the structure and intensity of the association between longitudinal measurements of an ordinal marker and time to a relevant event. The longitudinal process is defined in terms of a proportional-odds cumulative logit model. Time-to-event is modeled through a left-truncated proportionalhazards model, which incorporates information of the longitudinal marker as well as baseline covariates. Both longitudinal and survival processes are connected by means of a common vector of random effects. General inferences are discussed under the Bayesian approach and include the posterior distribution of the probabilities associated to each longitudinal category and the …
An autoregressive approach to spatio-temporal disease mapping
2007
Disease mapping has been a very active research field during recent years. Nevertheless, time trends in risks have been ignored in most of these studies, yet they can provide information with a very high epidemiological value. Lately, several spatio-temporal models have been proposed, either based on a parametric description of time trends, on independent risk estimates for every period, or on the definition of the joint covariance matrix for all the periods as a Kronecker product of matrices. The following paper offers an autoregressive approach to spatio-temporal disease mapping by fusing ideas from autoregressive time series in order to link information in time and by spatial modelling t…
Modeling and predicting the Spanish Bachillerato academic results over the next few years using a random network model
2016
[EN] Academic performance is a concern of paramount importance in Spain, where around of 30% of the students in the last two courses in high school, before to access to the labor market or to the university, do not achieve the minimum knowledge required according to the Spanish educational law in force. In order to analyze this problem, we propose a random network model to study the dynamics of the academic performance in Spain. Our approach is based on the idea that both, good and bad study habits, are a mixture of personal decisions and influence of classmates. Moreover, in order to consider the uncertainty in the estimation of model parameters, we perform a lot of simulations taking as t…
Model-Assisted Estimation Through Random Forests in Finite Population Sampling
2021
In surveys, the interest lies in estimating finite population parameters such as population totals and means. In most surveys, some auxiliary information is available at the estimation stage. This information may be incorporated in the estimation procedures to increase their precision. In this article, we use random forests (RFs) to estimate the functional relationship between the survey variable and the auxiliary variables. In recent years, RFs have become attractive as National Statistical Offices have now access to a variety of data sources, potentially exhibiting a large number of observations on a large number of variables. We establish the theoretical properties of model-assisted proc…
Large deviations results for subexponential tails, with applications to insurance risk
1996
AbstractConsider a random walk or Lévy process {St} and let τ(u) = inf {t⩾0 : St > u}, P(u)(·) = P(· | τ(u) < ∞). Assuming that the upwards jumps are heavy-tailed, say subexponential (e.g. Pareto, Weibull or lognormal), the asymptotic form of the P(u)-distribution of the process {St} up to time τ(u) is described as u → ∞. Essentially, the results confirm the folklore that level crossing occurs as result of one big jump. Particular sharp conclusions are obtained for downwards skip-free processes like the classical compound Poisson insurance risk process where the formulation is in terms of total variation convergence. The ideas of the proof involve excursions and path decompositions for Mark…
Horvitz-Thompson estimators for functional data: asymptotic confidence bands and optimal allocation for stratified sampling
2009
When dealing with very large datasets of functional data, survey sampling approaches are useful in order to obtain estimators of simple functional quantities, without being obliged to store all the data. We propose here a Horvitz--Thompson estimator of the mean trajectory. In the context of a superpopulation framework, we prove under mild regularity conditions that we obtain uniformly consistent estimators of the mean function and of its variance function. With additional assumptions on the sampling design we state a functional Central Limit Theorem and deduce asymptotic confidence bands. Stratified sampling is studied in detail, and we also obtain a functional version of the usual optimal …
Comparative Evaluation of Community Detection Algorithms: A Topological Approach
2012
International audience; Community detection is one of the most active fields in complex networks analysis, due to its potential value in practical applications. Many works inspired by different paradigms are devoted to the development of algorithmic solutions allowing to reveal the network structure in such cohesive subgroups. Comparative studies reported in the literature usually rely on a performance measure considering the community structure as a partition (Rand Index, Normalized Mutual information, etc.). However, this type of comparison neglects the topological properties of the communities. In this article, we present a comprehensive comparative study of a representative set of commu…
Bayesian models for data missing not at random in health examination surveys
2018
In epidemiological surveys, data missing not at random (MNAR) due to survey nonresponse may potentially lead to a bias in the risk factor estimates. We propose an approach based on Bayesian data augmentation and survival modelling to reduce the nonresponse bias. The approach requires additional information based on follow-up data. We present a case study of smoking prevalence using FINRISK data collected between 1972 and 2007 with a follow-up to the end of 2012 and compare it to other commonly applied missing at random (MAR) imputation approaches. A simulation experiment is carried out to study the validity of the approaches. Our approach appears to reduce the nonresponse bias substantially…