Search results for "Risk"

A competing risks tale on successful and unsuccessful fiscal consolidations

2019

Abstract This paper analyses the transitions out of fiscal consolidations using annual data for 17 industrial countries over the period 1975-2013 and applying a discrete-time competing risks duration model. Our approach allows us to distinguish the factors behind a successful or an unsuccessful end of fiscal consolidation episodes. The results show that economic and political factors, the size and typology of fiscal adjustments and the occurrence of crises explain the differences in the length and the success/failure of fiscal consolidations. Moreover, while fiscal adjustment programmes that end successfully display positive duration dependence, those that end in an unsuccessful manner are …

Delincuencia violenta, abuso y no consumo de drogas en adolescentes con riesgo de reincidencia

2020

espanolPresentamos un estudio original sobre consumo/abstinencia de drogas en adolescentes y su asociacion con el riesgo de reincidencia violenta. A una muestra de 192 sujetos se le aplico el cuestionario SAVRY –Structured Assessment of Violence Risk in Youth–, con el objetivo de analizar la asociacion entre el riesgo de reincidencia en delitos violentos y el consumo y abstinencia de drogas. Los resultados mostraron que: el no consumo se asocia al riesgo de reincidencia en delitos violentos intrafamiliares, el consumo de cocaina a robo con violencia e intimidacion, y el policonsumo de drogas al riesgo de reincidencia en diferentes delitos, siendo comun el ataque contra las personas. Las con…

Violence, War, and Gender: Collective Memory and Politics of Remembrance in Kosovo

2020

This chapter examines the politics memory and remembrance by focusing on the perceptions of citizens regarding the framework of Europeanisation and dealing with the troubled past. Although Kosovo signed the Stabilisation and Accession Agreement (SAA) with the EU, the country struggles to deal with its past in the framework of EU integration. This chapter examines the extent to which Europeanisation acts as a tool for dealing with the troubled past, or is just a superficial framework imposed from top-down policies of the EU. From six focus groups with 51 participants, both men and women and representing the main ethnic communities in Kosovo, we examine three main frameworks in the narratives…

Risks in neural machine translation

2020

Abstract The new paradigm of neural machine translation is leading to profound changes in the translation industry. Surprisingly good results have led to high expectations; however, there are substantial risks that have not yet been sufficiently taken into account. Risks exist on three levels: first, what kind of damage can clients and end users incur in safety-critical domains if the NMT result contains errors; second, who is liable for damage caused by the use of NMT; third, what cyber risks can the use of NMT entail, especially when free online engines are used. When establishing sustainable measures to reduce such risks, we also need to consider general principles of human behaviour if …

Of ostriches, pyramids, and Swiss cheese

2018

Abstract Risk management for translations is a relatively new topic in translation science. Damages caused by translation errors can have grave consequences for all agents involved in the translation process, especially in safety-critical sectors. In these sectors, effective models and instruments for risk mitigation have long been established, with near-misses management being one of the most effective instruments. In this paper, we examine the structure of damages caused by translation errors and compare them to the structure of damages in safety-critical sectors in general. We find that damages caused by translation errors in safety-critical sectors are comparable to damages in safety-cr…

Primer on the Contribution of Crime Scene Behavior to the Forensic Assessment of Sexual Offenders

2018

Abstract. Over the last decades several attempts in developing incrementally valid risk indicators above and beyond standard actuarial and dynamic risk assessment instruments have been undertaken without much success. The current review will summarize current developments regarding the validity of detailed crime scene analysis for forensic assessments of sexual offenders. To this end, this overview will focus on two issues: First, we will discuss the issue of sexual offender risk assessment based on crime scene information. Second, we will outline how crime scene behavior contributes to the assessment of sexual interest in children. In each section we will introduce the reader to new appro…

Attachment Styles and Suicide-Related Behaviors in Adolescence: The Mediating Role of Self-Criticism and Dependency

2017

Insecure attachment and the personality dimensions of self-criticism and dependency have been proposed as risk factors for suicide in adolescents. The present study examines whether self-criticism and dependency mediate the relationship between insecure attachment styles and suicidality. A sample of 340 high-school students (73.2% females), ranging in age from 13 to 20 years (M = 16.47, SD = 1.52), completed the Depressive Experiences Questionnaire for Adolescents, the Depressive Experiences Questionnaire for Adolescents, the Attachment Style Questionnaire, and the Suicidal Behaviors Questionnaire-Revised. The results partially support the expected mediation effects. Self-criticism, but not…

Childhood maltreatment, personality vulnerability profiles, and borderline personality disorder symptoms in adolescents.

2021

AbstractAdverse childhood experiences are significant risk factors in the development of adolescent borderline personality disorder symptoms (BPDs). Theorists have posited that two personality vulnerabilities factors, self-criticism and dependency, may inform our understanding of this relationship. However, no research has examined the associations between early negative experiences, personality vulnerabilities, and adolescent BPDs. The current study aimed to identify profiles of dependency and self-criticism to examine the associations of these profiles with cumulative forms of childhood maltreatment (CM) and BPDs as well as to explore the mediating and moderating role of vulnerable person…

Actuarial Risk Assessment of Sexual Offenders

2016

A Brief History of Sexual Offender Risk Assessment

2016

The assessment of risk of further offending behavior by adult sexual perpetrators has come a long way since the early 1900s. From risk estimations based on clinical observation and environmental changes in the 1920s, anthropological and longitudinal studies of juvenile offenders in the 1930s, the examination of psychoneurotic patients in the 1940s to the application of actuarial prediction to clinical assessment in the 1950s, researchers and practitioners have sought to identify valid and reliable measures of recidivism risk in sexual offenders. The emphasis in risk prediction slowly changed following Meehl’s (1954) seminal contributions to the clinical-statistical debate which introduced t…