Search results for "STATISTICS & PROBABILITY"
showing 10 items of 436 documents
Products of snowflaked Euclidean lines are not minimal for looking down
2017
We show that products of snowflaked Euclidean lines are not minimal for looking down. This question was raised in Fractured fractals and broken dreams, Problem 11.17, by David and Semmes. The proof uses arguments developed by Le Donne, Li and Rajala to prove that the Heisenberg group is not minimal for looking down. By a method of shortcuts, we define a new distance $d$ such that the product of snowflaked Euclidean lines looks down on $(\mathbb R^N,d)$, but not vice versa.
Modeling Chickenpox Dynamics with a Discrete Time Bayesian Stochastic Compartmental Model
2018
[EN] We present a Bayesian stochastic susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model in discrete time to understand chickenpox transmission in the Valencian Community, Spain. During the last decades, different strategies have been introduced in the routine immunization program in order to reduce the impact of this disease, which remains a public health's great concern. Under this scenario, a model capable of explaining closely the dynamics of chickenpox under the different vaccination strategies is of utter importance to assess their effectiveness. The proposed model takes into account both heterogeneous mixing of individuals in the population and the inherent stochasticity in the transmiss…
Refitting Solutions Promoted by $$\ell _{12}$$ Sparse Analysis Regularizations with Block Penalties
2019
International audience; In inverse problems, the use of an l(12) analysis regularizer induces a bias in the estimated solution. We propose a general refitting framework for removing this artifact while keeping information of interest contained in the biased solution. This is done through the use of refitting block penalties that only act on the co-support of the estimation. Based on an analysis of related works in the literature, we propose a new penalty that is well suited for refitting purposes. We also present an efficient algorithmic method to obtain the refitted solution along with the original (biased) solution for any convex refitting block penalty. Experiments illustrate the good be…
Retrieval of atmospheric CH4profiles from Fourier transform infrared data using dimension reduction and MCMC
2016
We introduce an inversion method that uses dimension reduction for the retrieval of atmospheric methane (CH4) profiles. Uncertainty analysis is performed using the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) statistical estimation. These techniques are used to retrieve CH4 profiles from the ground-based spectral measurements by the Fourier Transform Spectrometer (FTS) instrument at Sodankyla (67.4 degrees N, 26.6 degrees E), Northern Finland. The Sodankyla FTS is part of the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), a global network that observes solar spectra in near-infrared wavelengths. The high spectral resolution of the data provides approximately 3 degrees of freedom about the vertical struc…
Improving spatial temperature estimates by resort to time autoregressive processes
2012
Temperature estimation methods usually involve regression followed by kriging of residuals (residual kriging). Despite the performance of such models, there is invariably a residual which is not necessarily unpredictable because it may still be correlated in time. We set out to analyse such residuals through resort to autoregressive processes. It is shown that the optimal period varies depending on whether it is identified by functions of the form resd = f(resd−1, resd−2, ..., resd−p) or by partial correlations. Autoregressive processes significantly improve estimates, which are evaluated by cross-validations. Finally, the two following points are discussed: (1) the assumptions of the autor…
Students Mobility: Assessing the Determinants of Attractiveness Across Competing Territorial Areas
2016
A central question for education authorities has become ‘‘which factors make a territory attractive for tertiary students?’’ Tertiary education is recognised as one of the most important assets for the development of a territory, thus students’ mobility becomes a brain drain issue whenever there are prevalent areas that attract students from other territories. In this paper, we try to identify the most important factors that could affect student mobility in Italy. In doing that we analyse students’ flows across competing territorial areas which supply tertiary education programs. We will consider a wide range of determinants related to the socio-economic characteristics of the areas as well…
An NDC approach to helping pensioners cope with the cost of long-term care
2018
The aim of this paper is to analyse whether it would be possible to provide retirement and long-term care benefits using the same unfunded notional defined contribution scheme. We extend the multi-state overlapping generations model developed by Pla-Porcel et al. (2016) to include two new features: a long-term care benefit graded according to the annuitant's degree of disability and a minimum pension benefit for both contingencies. This brings the model closer to the reality of social insurance and enhances its political attractiveness. The paper contains a numerical example to show how the model functions and focuses especially on the mortality rates for dependent persons, the inception ra…
Dasymetric distribution of votes in a dense city
2017
[EN] A large proportion of electoral analyses using geography are performed on a small area basis, such as polling units. Unfortunately, polling units are frequently redrawn, provoking breaks in their data series. Previous electoral results play a key role in many analyses. They are used by political party workers and journalists to present quick assessments of outcomes, by political scientists and electoral geographers to perform detailed scrutinizes and by pollsters and forecasters to anticipate electoral results. In this paper, we study to what extent more complex geographical approaches (based on a proper location of electors on the territory using dasymetric techniques) are of value in…
Practical Issues on Energy-Growth Nexus Data and Variable Selection With Bayesian Analysis
2018
Abstract Given that the energy-growth nexus (EGN) is short of a complete theoretical base, the production function used therein is typically complemented with numerous variables that characterize an economy. Researchers are often puzzled not only with the selection of variables per se, but also with the variable sources and the various data handlings which become apparent and available only after years of experience in this research field. Thus, this chapter is divided into two distinctive parts: The first part contains an overview of the available data sources for the EGN as well as a succinct selection of advice on data handlings, transformations, and interpretations that could come handy…
Rejection odds and rejection ratios: A proposal for statistical practice in testing hypotheses
2016
Much of science is (rightly or wrongly) driven by hypothesis testing. Even in situations where the hypothesis testing paradigm is correct, the common practice of basing inferences solely on p-values has been under intense criticism for over 50 years. We propose, as an alternative, the use of the odds of a correct rejection of the null hypothesis to incorrect rejection. Both pre-experimental versions (involving the power and Type I error) and post-experimental versions (depending on the actual data) are considered. Implementations are provided that range from depending only on the p-value to consideration of full Bayesian analysis. A surprise is that all implementations -- even the full Baye…