Search results for "STOCHASTIC"
showing 10 items of 1018 documents
Accounting for preferential sampling in species distribution models
2019
D. C., A. L. Q. and F. M. would like to thank the Ministerio de Educación y Ciencia (Spain) for financial support (jointly financed by the European Regional Development Fund) via Research Grants MTM2013‐42323‐P and MTM2016‐77501‐P, and ACOMP/2015/202 from Generalitat Valenciana (Spain). Species distribution models (SDMs) are now being widely used in ecology for management and conservation purposes across terrestrial, freshwater, and marine realms. The increasing interest in SDMs has drawn the attention of ecologists to spatial models and, in particular, to geostatistical models, which are used to associate observations of species occurrence or abundance with environmental covariates in a fi…
Forecasting ocean warming impacts on seabird demography: a case study on the European storm petrel
2016
Bottom-up climatic forcing has been shown to be influential for a variety of marine taxa, but evidence on seabird populations is scarce. Seasonal variation in environmental conditions can have an indirect effect on subsequent reproduction, which, given the longevity and single-brooding of seabirds, may affect population dynamics. Our study focuses on linking the effect of oceanographic conditions (from 1991 to 2013) to the fecundity and consequently pop - ulation growth rate of the Mediterranean subspecies of the European storm petrel Hydrobates pelagicus melitensis. In this study, we examined 23 yr of > 5400 capture–mark−recaptures (CMR) and modelled the probability of skipping reproductio…
Multiple‐batch spawning as a bet‐hedging strategy in highly stochastic environments: An exploratory analysis of Atlantic cod
2021
Stochastic environments shape life‐history traits and can promote selection for risk‐spreading strategies, such as bet‐hedging. Although the strategy has often been hypothesised to exist for various species, empirical tests providing firm evidence have been rare, mainly due to the challenge in tracking fitness across generations. Here, we take a ‘proof of principle’ approach to explore whether the reproductive strategy of multiple‐batch spawning constitutes a bet‐hedging. We used Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua) as the study species and parameterised an eco‐evolutionary model, using empirical data on size‐related reproductive and survival traits. To evaluate the fitness benefits of multiple‐batc…
Potential of using data assimilation to support forest planning
2017
Uncertainty in forest information typically results in economic and ecological losses as a consequence of suboptimal management decisions. Several techniques have been proposed to handle such uncertainties. However, these techniques are often complex and costly. Data assimilation (DA) has recently been advocated as a tool that may reduce the uncertainty, thereby improving the quality of forest planning results. It offers an opportunity to make use of all new sources of information in a systematic way and thus provides more accurate and up-to-date information to forest planning. In this study, we refer to literature on handling uncertainties in forest planning, as well as related literature…
Diversifying selection on MHC class I in the house sparrow (Passer domesticus).
2009
10 pages; International audience; Genes of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC) are the most polymorphic loci known in vertebrates. Two main hypotheses have been put forward to explain the maintenance of MHC diversity: pathogen-mediated selection and MHC-based mate choice. Host-parasite interactions can maintain MHC diversity via frequency-dependent selection, heterozygote advantage, and diversifying selection (spatially and/or temporally heterogeneous selection). In this study, we wished to investigate the nature of selection acting on the MHC class I across spatially structured populations of house sparrows (Passer domesticus) in France. To infer the nature of the selection, we comp…
Community size can affect the signals of ecological drift and niche selection on biodiversity
2020
Made available in DSpace on 2020-12-12T01:24:05Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2020-06-01 Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Academy of Finland Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq) Ecological drift can override the effects of deterministic niche selection on small populations and drive the assembly of some ecological communities. We tested this hypothesis with a unique data set sampled identically in 200 streams in two regions (tropical Brazil and boreal Finland) that differ in macroinvertebrate community size by fivefold. Null models allowed us t…
Cyclical and stochastic thermal variability affects survival and growth in brook trout
2019
Directional changes in temperature have well-documented effects on ectotherms, yet few studies have explored how increased thermal variability (a concomitant of climate change) might affect individual fitness. Using a common-garden experimental protocol, we investigated how bidirectional temperature change can affect survival and growth of brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis) and whether the survival and growth responses differ between two populations, using four thermal-variability treatments (mean: 10 °C; range: 7–13 °C): (i) constancy; (ii) cyclical fluctuations every two days; (iii) low stochasticity (random changes every 2 days); (iv) high stochasticity (random changes daily). Recently …
Community size affects the signals of ecological drift and niche selection on biodiversity
2019
AbstractEcological drift can override the effects of deterministic niche selection on small populations and drive the assembly of small communities. We tested the hypothesis that smaller local communities are more dissimilar among each other because of ecological drift than larger communities, which are mainly structured by niche selection. We used a unique, comprehensive dataset on insect communities sampled identically in a total of 200 streams in climatically different regions (Brazil and Finland) that differ in community size by fivefold. Null models allowed us to estimate the magnitude to which beta diversity deviates from the expectation under a random assembly process while taking di…
The role of noise on the steady state distributions of phytoplankton populations
2016
The spatio-temporal behaviour of total chlorophyll concentration is investigated in the middle of the Tyrrhenian Sea by using a stochastic approach. The study is based on a reaction-diffusion-taxis model, which is used to analyse the dynamics of five phytoplankton groups, responsible for about 80% of the total chlorophyll a inside the euphotic zone of the water column. The analysis is performed by considering: (i) the intraspecific competition of the phytoplanktonic groups for limiting factors, i.e. light intensity and nutrient concentration, (ii) the seasonal changes of environmental variables, and (iii) the random fluctuations of the components of the velocity field and temperature. Speci…
The irreducible uncertainty of the demography–environment interaction in ecology
2002
The interpretation of ecological data has been greatly improved by bridging the gap between ecological and statistical models. The major challenge is to separate competing hypotheses concerning demography, or other ecological relationships, and environmental variability (noise). In this paper we demonstrate that this may be an arduous, if not impossible, task. It is the lack of adequate ecological theory, rather than statistical sophistication, which leads to this problem. A reconstruction of underlying ecological processes can only be done if we are certain of either the demographic or the noise model, which is something that can only be achieved by an improved theory of stochastic ecologi…