Search results for "Scenario analysi"

Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for reducing greenhouse gas emissions from wastewater treatment plants.

2020

Abstract This paper presents the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a plant-wide mathematical model for wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). The mathematical model assesses direct and indirect (due to the energy consumption) greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions from a WWTP employing a whole-plant approach. The model includes: i) the kinetic/mass-balance based model regarding nitrogen; ii) two-step nitrification process; iii) N2O formation both during nitrification and denitrification (as dissolved and off-gas concentration). Important model factors have been selected by using the Extended-Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity Testing (FAST) global sensitivity analysis method. A scenario analysis h…

Exploring relationships between drought and epidemic cholera in Africa using generalised linear models

2021

Abstract Background Temperature and precipitation are known to affect Vibrio cholerae outbreaks. Despite this, the impact of drought on outbreaks has been largely understudied. Africa is both drought and cholera prone and more research is needed in Africa to understand cholera dynamics in relation to drought. Methods Here, we analyse a range of environmental and socioeconomic covariates and fit generalised linear models to publicly available national data, to test for associations with several indices of drought and make cholera outbreak projections to 2070 under three scenarios of global change, reflecting varying trajectories of CO2 emissions, socio-economic development, and population gr…

Vulnerability Analysis of Interdependent Critical Infrastructures upon a Cyber-attack

2019

Life cycle energy and CO2 emissions analysis of food packaging: an insight into the methodology from an Italian perspective

2016

Packaging is strictly connected to environmental issues as it is a product characterised by high material consumption rate; it is often transported over long distances and has a short life. Providing environmental analysis is, therefore, urgent to identify energy and resources efficient solutions. The paper, taking advantage of a real case study, presents a life cycle-based comparative analysis among three different food packaging systems. The paper compares the life cycle of tin steel, polypropylene and glass-based packaging of an Italian preserves producer. The analysis leads to the conclusion that, for the baseline scenario, polypropylene packaging represents the greenest solution, where…

A spreadsheet modeling approach to the Holt–Winters optimal forecasting

2001

Abstract The objective of this paper is to determine the optimal forecasting for the Holt–Winters exponential smoothing model using spreadsheet modeling. This forecasting procedure is especially useful for short-term forecasts for series of sales data or levels of demand for goods. The non-linear programming problem associated with this forecasting model is formulated and a spreadsheet model is used to solve the problem of optimization efficiently. Also, a spreadsheet makes it possible to work in parallel with various objective functions (measures of forecast errors) and different procedures for calculating the initial values of the components of the model. Using a scenario analysis, the se…

Traffic induced air pollution modeling: Scenario analysis for air quality management in street canyon

2019

This study was supported by the Riga City research project DMV-17-60-lī-03.02.2017. The authors wish to thank the Riga City Council and Latvian Environment, Geology and Meteorology Centre for data used in this study.

Modeling software integration scenarios for telecommunications operations software vendors

2007

- Telecom operators deploy a vast number of software systems to support their operations. Vendors of these systems often integrate such software in their products in order to enable innovations, minimize the customer's integration efforts, etc. Different integration scenarios can be envisioned, and the issue of identifying more beneficial scenarios is of a great importance to the vendors. This paper focuses on analyzing different integration scenarios in the context of telecommunications operations software. For each scenario, the overall modularity of the set of software systems is evaluated, and the expected benefits of the scenario are modeled in terms of the modularity gain it provides.…

Transition to sustainability: Italian scenarios towards a low-carbon economy

2014

This paper analyzes different policies that may promote the transition to sustainability, with a particular focus on the energy sector. We present a dynamic simulation model where three different strategies for sustainability are identified: reduction in GHG emissions, improvements in energy efficiency and the development of the renewable energy sector. Our aim is to evaluate the dynamics that those strategies may produce in the economy, looking at different performance indicators: rate of growth, unemployment, fiscal position, GHG emission, and transition to renewable energy sources. © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2014.

A Dynamic Simulation Approach to Frame Drivers and Implications of Corruption Practices on Firm Performance

2014

Corruption is a multifaceted socio-economic phenomenon widely spread – although with different intensity – all around the world. Many studies on corruption have been conducted at a country-level, but relatively little effort has been placed in evaluating its implications, in terms of both financial and competitive performance, at a firm-level. Therefore, this paper aims at exploring the causal relationships underlying the effect of corruption on firm performance in order to show the different scenarios that may emerge from the combination between external (i.e., contextual conditions) and internal (i.e., organizational characteristics) forces that drive corruption. To this end, we adopt a D…

Overcoming managers’ myopic decisions in a waste collection company

2019

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to show how the changing interrelationships between fleet management, human resources and outsourcer capacity areas are likely to counterbalance managerial policies, thereby generating a performance decay. The use of system dynamics modelling in a waste collection company offered an effective contribution to support decision makers to overcoming myopic decisions. Design/methodology/approach Literature review and a case study analysis (including interviews with company actors and data gathering) offered the basis to build a system dynamics model. The model built was then used to run simulations sessions to assess alternative investments decisions. Findin…