Search results for "Scenario analysis"
showing 10 items of 36 documents
A life cycle scenario analysis of different pavement technologies for urban roads.
2019
In the past, lowest price was the award criterion, given that structural capacity and safety were assured. In the last years, environmental, energy, and long-term impacts have been introduced (climate change, resource depletion, energy consumption, generated solid waste, discharged water, and emissions). Unfortunately, the introduction of new pavement technologies and materials (i.e., waste plastics) affects maintenance and rehabilitation processes and call for accurate and timeliness studies and criteria. Consequently, this paper presents an energy and environmental assessment of an Italian urban road and considers different material-related scenarios that fully comply with emerging techno…
Assessing the sustainability of small wastewater treatment systems: A composite indicator approach
2014
The assessment of the sustainability of wastewater treatment (WWT) systems has gained interest in recent years. However, most previous studies have focused on environmental and/or economic dimensions ignoring social aspects. Moreover, they tend to be based on sets of indicators rather than providing a holistic assessment. To overcome this limitation, this paper proposes an innovative methodology to assess the sustainability of WWT systems based on the development of a composite indicator embracing economic, environmental and social issues. Subsequently, the global sustainability of seven WWT technologies for secondary treatment in small communities is compared. The joint application of the …
Environmental assessment of 2030 electricity generation scenarios in Sicily: An integrated approach
2020
Abstract This paper deals with the environmental assessment of two electricity scenarios in Sicily, for 2030, characterized by a high exploitation of renewable energy sources in order to quantify the potential contribution of the local strategies in the achievement of the European climate policies and the potential improvement in the future electricity mix, compared to the current one (2014). In order to match these goals, authors integrate the Life Cycle Assessment with a scenario analysis. The future electricity mix scenarios, characterized by a share of renewables (57% for 2030-BS scenario and 51% for 2030-DS scenario) show a reduction of the greenhouse gases emissions per kWh of electri…
Electric mobility in Sicily: An application to a historical archaeological site
2016
Transports should be a key focus in the close future for decarbonization efforts, if the optimistic climate change mitigation objectives to be reached by 2050 on a global scale are to be met. Choosing an emblematic and historical location in the center of Sicily as object of the study, the potential for decarbonization and the reduction of the energy and environmental impacts in the site for electric mobility is assessed, by considering electric mobility scenarios based on different shares of electricity generated through renewable energy technologies. The analysis is performed by means of a life-cycle approach, through the use of the Life Cycle Assessment methodology. A parametric analysis…
Risk profiles for re-profiling sovereign debt
2015
Purpose – This paper aims to use a risk management approach for re-profiling of sovereign debt. It develops profiles that trade off expected cost of financing alternative debt structures against their risk. The risk profiles are particularly informative for countries facing sovereign debt crisis, as they allow us to identify, with high probability, debt unsustainability. Risk profiles for two eurozone countries with excessive debt, Cyprus and Italy, were developed. In addition, risk profiles were developed for a proposal to impose debt sanctions in the Ukrainian crisis and it was shown that the financial impact could be substantial. Design/methodology/approach – Using scenario analysis, a r…
A plant-wide wastewater treatment plant model for carbon and energy footprint: Model application and scenario analysis
2019
Abstract A new model for accounting carbon and energy footprint of wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) is proposed. The model quantifies direct and indirect greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions related to biological and physical processes of a WWTP. The model takes into account several innovative aspects with respect to already available literature models: i. kinetic/mass-balances; ii. nitrification as a two-step process; iii. nitrous oxide (N2O) formation during nitrification and denitrification both in dissolved and off-gas forms. A full-scale application has been performed by adopting the case study of a real WWTP. A scenario analysis was performed to quantify the influence of: composition of …
Risk management optimization for sovereign debt restructuring
2015
Debt restructuring is one of the policy tools available for resolving sovereign debt crises and, while unorthodox, it is not uncommon. We propose a scenario analysis for debt sustainability and integrate it with scenario optimization for risk management in restructuring sovereign debt. The scenario dynamics of debt-to-GDP ratio are used to define a tail risk measure, termed "conditional Debt-at-Risk". A multi-period stochastic programming model minimizes the expected cost of debt financing subject to risk limits. It provides an operational model to handle significant aspects of debt restructuring: it collects all debt issues in a common framework, and can include contingent claims, multiple…
'Participative foresight scenario mapping': adapting an MCM method to appraise foresight scenarios for the long term sustainable development of a sma…
2016
Multi-criteria mapping (MCM) appraisal has been used in projects involving decisions related to specific technologies or policies in risk analysis. In this research, MCM has been adapted for appraising in a participative way holistic scenarios for a small isolated island. The procedural novelty relies on how the scenario building and the criteria selection were undertaken. Two scenarios for Flores Island (Portugal) were developed in a two step process involving, firstly, specialised stakeholders and decision-makers, and secondly, lay citizens. The scenarios aimed at proposing alternative visions of future. This article analyses the methodological aspects of the project (scenario development…
Exploring relationships between drought and epidemic cholera in Africa using generalised linear models
2021
AbstractBackgroundTemperature and precipitation are known to affect Vibrio cholerae outbreaks. Despite this, the impact of drought on outbreaks has been largely understudied. Africa is both drought and cholera prone and more research is needed in Africa to understand cholera dynamics in relation to drought.MethodsHere, we analyse a range of environmental and socioeconomic covariates and fit generalised linear models to publicly available national data, to test for associations with several indices of drought and make cholera outbreak projections to 2070 under three scenarios of global change, reflecting varying trajectories of CO2 emissions, socio-economic development, and population growth…
Energy, water and environmental balance of a complex water supply system
2015
The present paper describes the analysis of water and energy balance in a complex urban water supply system. The analysis was carried out employing Life Cycle Analysis (LCA) methodologies. The LCA approach was integrated with the analysis of the system energy and water balance. For a real size water supply system, based on the results of the individual LCAs, the current baseline was constructed highlighting the water, energy and environmental (in terms of CO2eq emissions in the atmosphere) costs of supplied water. Then, three different mitigation measures have been evaluated: the first is based on energy production by installation of photovoltaic systems; the second is based on energy recov…