Search results for "Season"
showing 10 items of 1002 documents
Spatial Coherence of Tropical Rainfall at the Regional Scale
2007
AbstractThis study examines the spatial coherence characteristics of daily station observations of rainfall in five tropical regions during the principal rainfall season(s): the Brazilian Nordeste, Senegal, Kenya, northwestern India, and northern Queensland. The rainfall networks include between 9 and 81 stations, and 29–70 seasons of observations. Seasonal-mean rainfall totals are decomposed in terms of daily rainfall frequency (i.e., the number of wet days) and mean intensity (i.e., the mean rainfall amount on wet days).Despite the diverse spatiotemporal sampling, orography, and land cover between regions, three general results emerge. 1) Interannual anomalies of rainfall frequency are us…
Extreme dry spells over the Mediterranean Basin during the wet season: assessment of HyMeX/Med-CORDEX regional climate simulations (1979-2009).
2018
16 pages; International audience; Exceptional dry spells, in this study referred to as very long dry spells (VLDS), are natural hazards to which the Mediterranean region is extremely vulnerable, with socio‐economic and environmental impacts. In this study, they are characterized in terms of location, spatial extent, duration, temporal variability and associated atmospheric circulations. The main objective is to assess the performance of five HyMeX/Med‐CORDEX regional climate simulations to detect and reproduce VLDS in comparison with the E‐OBS observed daily gridded data. Models accurately reproduce the occurrence of precipitation around the Mediterranean Basin, and therefore the occurrence…
Extracting subseasonal scenarios: an alternative method to analyze seasonal predictability of regional-scale tropical rainfall.
2013
Abstract Current seasonal prediction of rainfall typically focuses on 3-month rainfall totals at regional scale. This temporal summation reduces the noise related to smaller-scale weather variability but also implicitly emphasizes the peak of the climatological seasonal cycle of rainfall. This approach may hide potentially predictable signals when rainfall is lower: for example, near the onset or cessation of the rainy season. The authors illustrate such a case for the East African long rains (March–May) on a network of 36 stations in Kenya and north Tanzania from 1961 to 2001. Spatial coherence and potential predictability of seasonal rainfall anomalies associated with tropical sea surface…
Spatial coherence of monsoon onset over Western and Central Sahel (1950-2000)
2009
Abstract The spatial coherence of boreal monsoon onset over the western and central Sahel (Senegal, Mali, Burkina Faso) is studied through the analysis of daily rainfall data for 103 stations from 1950 to 2000. Onset date is defined using a local agronomic definition, that is, the first wet day (>1 mm) of 1 or 2 consecutive days receiving at least 20 mm without a 7-day dry spell receiving less than 5 mm in the following 20 days. Changing either the length or the amplitude of the initial wet spell, or both, or the length of the following dry spell modifies the long-term mean of local-scale onset date but has only a weak impact either on its interannual variability or its spatial coher…
Inter-Relationships Between Groundnut Yield in Senegal, Interannual Rainfall Variability and Sea-Surface Temperatures
1999
Groundnut production strongly contributes to Senegal’s economy. Interannual variations of groundnut yield for the country as a whole, and their relationship with rainfall amounts, are examined for the 31-yr period 1960–1990. It is shown that on that scale, and after removing decadal trends, almost half of the variance is explained by rainfall variability, especially that of the early part of the rainy season (July–August). Given the high spatial coherence of seasonal rainfall in the region, teleconnections with global- and regional-scale climate dynamics, including sea-surface temperatures, are assessed. Though some features are similar to the rest of the Sahel, others are more specific, su…
Prediction of Dry-Season Precipitation in Tropical West Africa and Its Relation to Forcing from the Extratropics
2009
Abstract Precipitation during the boreal winter dry season in tropical West Africa is rare but occasionally results in significant impacts on the local population. The dynamics and predictability of this phenomenon have been studied very little. Here, a statistical evaluation of the climatology, dynamics, and predictions of dry-season wet events is presented for the region 7.5°–15°N, 10°W–10°E. The analysis is based upon Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) merged satellite–gauge pentad rainfall estimates and 5-day 40-yr European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40) precipitation forecasts, and covers the 23 dry seasons (November–February) during…
Seasonal evolution of boundary layer heat content in the West African monsoon from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (1968-1998)
2000
Using the National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP)/National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) dataset over the period 1968–1998, the basic relationships between July and September monsoon circulation variations over West Africa and monthly meridional distribution of moist static energy (MSE) content in the boundary layer are portrayed. Wet minus dry stratified analyses relative to Sudan–Sahel rainfall show that particular April–June meridional patterns of near-surface MSE contents, south of 10°N, could control the amplitude and timing of the monsoon rainy season. Relative to the driest July–September situations, the wettest ones have been, on average, preceded by delayed but…
Changes in the African monsoon region at medium-term time horizon using 12 AR4 coupled models under the A1b emissions scenario.
2011
This study documents simulated precipitation and circulation changes through the 20C3M and A1b scenarios. It portrays a robust pattern, associating rainfall deficits in subtropical regions with rainfall excesses over West Africa, except in Northern Senegal and Mauritania, with a significant enhancement of both the April–June rainy season in 10/12 models and of the July–September rainy season in 8/12 models. Eastward to 5°W a northward shift in the latitude of the moisture flux convergence at 850 hPa is evident in 10/11 models (+0.58° in mean) and a southward shift in 6/11 models in the western region (−0.24°) is observed. Copyright © 2011 Royal Meteorological Society
The East African March–May Rainy Season: Associated Atmospheric Dynamics and Predictability over the 1968–97 Period
2002
Abstract This paper focuses on the East African March–May “long rains.” Particularly, it investigates the atmospheric patterns associated to the March–May rainfall anomalies, then proposes a seasonal prediction model. In a preliminary step, in order to define a regional rainfall index, a new form of extended principal component analysis is performed, aimed at capturing both the spatial and intraseasonal rainfall coherence. What emerges is that although the long rains exhibit a low temporal coherence, calling for a separation between the months of March–April and May in teleconnection studies, they show a relatively strong spatial consistency over the Kenya–Uganda inland region. From composi…
The onset of the rainy season in Yunnan province, PR China and its significance for agricultural operations
1993
Data of 134 stations located in Yunnan province, PR China were analysed in order to study the temporal and spatial characteristics of the onset of the rainy season and to investigate the consequences for farming operations. Using a precipitation threshold value, a time span of 12 weeks was found for the complete onset of the rainy season, while the range of onset dates varied from 37 days to 155 days. The onset occurred at different places across the province and showed active and break phases due to the interaction of four different branches of the atmospheric circulation. The onset of the growing season, determined by summing up decade precipitation totals, showed the same general pattern…