Search results for "Sensitivity analysis"

Global sensitivity analysis in integrated water quality modelling: an application to a real case study

2012

The increasing sensitivity towards water quality environmental issues led to the setting up of water quality integrated modelling approaches and the definition of water quality criteria that better represent the receiving water body quality status. More specifically, compared to the past, the tendency today is to design and manage the whole integrated urban drainage system, i.e. , wastewater treatment plant and receiving water body (RWB) considering each component not separately but jointly. Despite the advantages of a holistic approach for the assessment of the RWB quality state there are some limits that may prevent a straightforward application. Indeed, integrated models are generally ch…

Sensitivity analysis: fundamentals

2015

Sensitivity analysis (SA) is a valuable tool to support the use of mathematical models for environmental systems. Local or global SA (namely, LSA and GSA) are performed in order to better understand processes and to select the most influential factors affecting processes. The main objective of this extended abstract is to provide an informed problem statement of the issues surrounding LSA and GSA applications in the environmental water quality modelling field. Specifically, this paper aims at identifying, for the most popular methods, their potential use, the critical issues to be solved and the limits identified in a comprehensive literature review.

Global sensitivity analysis in ASM applications: comparison of the SRC and Extended-FAST method for a UCT-MBR model

2011

In this study global sensitivity analysis is performed to identify influential as well as non-influential parameters in a model of a University Cape Town Membrane Bioreactor (UCT-MBR). In particular, the Standardised Regression Coefficients (SRC) and Extended-FAST sensitivity analysis methods are applied. The sensitivity of model variables towards parameter variation is analysed for CODTOT, SNH4, SNO3, SPO, and MLSS along five reactor compartments. Both methods indicate that the parameters identified as being influential differ from section to section due to the different processes involved. Moreover, the relevant influence of the membrane filtration parameters is detected in the first plan…

The GSA-GLUE approach for uncertainty assessment of an integrated MBR model

2012

In the recent literature, the uncertainty of wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) modelling has had relevant interest both for designers and operators. Indeed, the frequent data lacking and the need to improve process knowledge, in case of innovative technologies, make the use of mathematical models more uncertain. Therefore, the need to make model uncertainty more explicit is warmly recommended. However, only few applications of uncertainty analysis in the wastewater field have been carried out. In this work, the combination of the global sensitivity analysis (GSA) and the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) is applied for the uncertainty assessment of a WWTP model, in order …

An intelligent way to predict the building thermal needs: ANNs and optimization

2022

The evaluation of the energy performance of existing or new buildings is a fundamental action to guarantee the feasibility of a project and the achievement of the minimum efficiency requirements. In general, the determination of the thermal loads of a building is carried out via software but their use requires adequate knowledge of physical phenomena and therefore the presence of an expert user. Furthermore, the resolution can be difficult to implement and can require high computational costs; all conditions that can influence the success of a project. Based on these considerations, this work proposes an alternative solution to traditional calculation tools, which in a simple and effective …

River water quality modelling: a parsimonious model approach

2009

Change-points detection for variance piecewise constant models

2011

A new approach based on the fit of a generalized linear regression model is introduced for detecting change-points in the variance of heteroscedastic Gaussian variables, with piecewise constant variance function. This approach overcome some limitations of both exact and approximate well-known methods that are based on successive application of search and tend to overestimate the real number of changes in the variance of the series. The proposed method just requires the computation of a gamma GLM with log-link, resulting in a very efficient algorithm even with large sample size and many change points to be estimated.

A macroeconomic analysis of the public investments in European combined transport

2009

Intermodal transport has been recognized as a priority by the European Union, that has defined different budget allocations of investments to improve the shifting from road to intermodal transport, which is more sustainable. In this context, the main aim of the paper is to discuss the macroeconomic effects, in terms of economic growth, welfare and trade, of these public investments for combined transport, which aspects have been neglected in literature. A multi-country computable general equilibrium model has been used. The main results have been that the European Union benefits from these investments, but at international level, USA and Japan would lose in terms of welfare. Furthermore, th…

Assessment of Modelling Structure and Data Availability Influence on Urban Flood Damage Modelling Uncertainty

2014

Abstract In modelling application, different model structures may be equally reliable in terms of calibration ability but they may produce different uncertainty levels; moreover, available data during model calibration may influence the uncertainty linked to the predictions of the same modelling structure. In the present paper, Bayesian model-averaging was applied to several flood damage estimation models in order to identify the best model combination for urban flooding distribution analysis in Palermo city center (Italy). During the analysis, was taken into account the effect of the available data growth on the model uncertainty with respect to the different combination of models outputs.

Decision Making and Optimization for Inspection Planning under Parametric Uncertainty of Underlying Models

2013

Certain fatigued structures must be inspected in order to detect fatigue damages that would otherwise not be apparent. A technique for obtaining optimal inspection strategies is proposed for situations where it is difficult to quantify the costs associated with inspections and undetected failure. For fatigued structures, for which failures (fatigue damages) are only detected at the time of inspection, it is important to be able to determine the optimal times of inspection. Fewer inspections will lead to lower fatigue reliability of the structure upon demand, and frequent inspections will lead to higher cost. When there is a fatigue reliability requirement, the problem is usually to develop …