Search results for "Space time"
showing 9 items of 69 documents
FLP estimation of semi-parametric models for space-time point processes and diagnostic tools
2015
Abstract The conditional intensity function of a space–time branching model is defined by the sum of two main components: the long-run term intensity and short-run term one. Their simultaneous estimation is a complex issue that usually requires the use of hard computational techniques. This paper deals with a new mixed estimation approach for a particular space–time branching model, the Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequence model. This approach uses a simultaneous estimation of the different model components, alternating a parametric step for estimating the induced component by Maximum Likelihood and a non-parametric estimation step, for the background intensity, by FLP (Forward Predictive Like…
Second-order diagnostics for space-time point processes with application to seismic events
2008
A diagnostic method for space-time point process is introduced and used to interpret and assess the goodness of fit of particular models to real data such as the seismic ones. The proposed method is founded on the definition of a weighted process and allows to detect second-order features of data, like long-range dependence and fractal behavior, that are not accounted for by the fitted model. Applications to earthquake data are provided. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
Including covariates in a space-time point process with application to seismicity
2020
AbstractThe paper proposes a spatio-temporal process that improves the assessment of events in space and time, considering a contagion model (branching process) within a regression-like framework to take covariates into account. The proposed approach develops the forward likelihood for prediction method for estimating the ETAS model, including covariates in the model specification of the epidemic component. A simulation study is carried out for analysing the misspecification model effect under several scenarios. Also an application to the Italian seismic catalogue is reported, together with the reference to the developed R package.
Forward likelihood-based predictive approach for space-time point processes
2011
Dealing with data from a space–time point process, the estimation of the conditional intensity function is a crucial issue even if a complete definition of a parametric model is not available. In particular, in case of exploratory contexts or if we want to assess the adequacy of a specific parametric model, some kind of nonparametric estimation procedure could be useful. Often, for these purposes kernel estimators are used and the estimation of the intensity function depends on the estimation of bandwidth parameters. In some fields, like for instance the seismological one, predictive properties of the estimated intensity function are pursued. Since a direct ML approach cannot be used, we pr…
Recent advances in space-time statistics with applications to environmental data: An overview
2003
[1] This paper introduces a special section based on general environmental scientific problems, with a particular focus on using atmospheric data. All the papers and authors provide the methodology to study, analyze, predict, and evaluate the spatial-temporal behavior and the complicated spatial-temporal structure of the data. The overall aim is to present up-to-date developments in spatial and spatiotemporal statistics in the field of the atmosphere, to present on-going research, and to discuss important problems to be addressed in the near future.
ETAS Space–Time Modeling of Chile Triggered Seismicity Using Covariates: Some Preliminary Results
2021
Chilean seismic activity is one of the strongest in the world. As already shown in previous papers, seismic activity can be usefully described by a space–time branching process, such as the ETAS (Epidemic Type Aftershock Sequences) model, which is a semiparametric model with a large time-scale component for the background seismicity and a small time-scale component for the triggered seismicity. The use of covariates can improve the description of triggered seismicity in the ETAS model, so in this paper, we study the Chilean seismicity separately for the North and South area, using some GPS-related data observed together with ordinary catalog data. Our results show evidence that the use of s…
An alternative space-time meshless method for solving transient heat transfer problems with high discontinuous moving sources
2016
International audience; The aim of this work is the development of a space-time diffuse approximation meshless method (DAM) to solve heat equations containing discontinuous sources. This work is devoted to transient heat transfer problems with static and moving heat sources applied on a metallic plate and whose power presents temporal discontinuities. The space-time DAM using classical weight function is convenient for continuous transient heat transfer. Nevertheless, for problems including discontinuities, some spurious oscillations for the temperature field occur. A new weight function, respecting the principle of causality, is used to eradicate the physically unexpected oscillations.
Space-Time Forecasting of Seismic Events in Chile
2017
The aim of this work is to study the seismicity in Chile using the ETAS (epidemic type aftershock sequences) space‐time approach. The proposed ETAS model is estimated using a semi‐parametric technique taking into account the parametric and nonparametric components corresponding to the triggered and background seismicity, respectively. The model is then used to predict the temporal and spatial intensity of events for some areas of Chile where recent large earthquakes (with magnitude greater than 8.0 M) occurred.
An Examination of Tourist Arrivals Dynamics Using Short-Term Time Series Data: A Space—Time Cluster Approach
2013
The purpose of this study is to examine the development of Italian tourist areas ( circoscrizioni turistiche) through a cluster analysis of short time series. The technique is an adaptation of the functional data analysis approach developed by Abraham et al (2003), which combines spline interpolation with k-means clustering. The findings indicate the presence of two patterns (increasing and stable) averagely characterizing groups of territories. Moreover, tests of spatial contiguity suggest the presence of ‘space–time clusters’; that is, areas in the same ‘time cluster’ are also spatially contiguous. These findings appear to be more robust in particular for those series characterized by an…