Search results for "Statistical"

Erratum: Partition function of the trigonometric SOS model with reflecting end

2010

Noise decomposition in random telegraph signals using the wavelet transform

2007

Abstract By using the continuous wavelet transform with Haar basis the second-order properties of the wavelet coefficients are derived for the random telegraph signal (RTS) and for the 1 / f noise which is obtained by summation of many RTSs. The correlation structure of the Haar wavelet coefficients for these processes is found. For the wavelet spectrum of the 1 / f noise some characteristics related to the distribution of the relaxation times of the RTS are derived. A statistical test based on the characterization of the time evolution of the scalogram is developed, which allows to detect non-stationarity in the times τ 's which compose the 1 / f process and to identify the time scales of …

Modeling temperature effects on mortality: multiple segmented relationships with common break points.

2008

We present a model for estimation of temperature effects on mortality that is able to capture jointly the typical features of every temperature-death relationship, that is, nonlinearity and delayed effect of cold and heat over a few days. Using a segmented approximation along with a doubly penalized spline-based distributed lag parameterization, estimates and relevant standard errors of the cold- and heat-related risks and the heat tolerance are provided. The model is applied to data from Milano, Italy.

Olley–Pakes productivity decomposition: computation and inference

2016

Summary We show how a moment-based estimation procedure can be used to compute point estimates and standard errors for the two components of the widely used Olley–Pakes decomposition of aggregate (weighted average) productivity. When applied to business level microdata, the procedure allows for autocovariance and heteroscedasticity robust inference and hypothesis testing about, for example, the coevolution of the productivity components in different groups of firms. We provide an application to Finnish firm level data and find that formal statistical inference casts doubt on the conclusions that one might draw on the basis of a visual inspection of the components of the decomposition.

Ruin probabilities in the presence of heavy tails and interest rates

1997

Abstract We study the infinite time ruin probability for the classical Cramer-Lundberg model, where the company also receives interest on its reserve. We consider the large claims case, where the claim size distribution F has a regularly varying tail. Hence our results apply for instance to Pareto, loggamma, certain Benktander and stable claim size distributions. We prove that for a positive force of interest δ the ruin probability ψδ (u) ∼ κδ (1 - F(u)) as the initial risk reserve u→∞. This is quantitatively different from the non-interest model, where ψ(u) ∼ κ (1 – F(y)) dy.

The Raising Factor, That Great Unknown. A Guided Activity for Undergraduate Students

2020

In the first years of their economics degree programs, students will face many problems successfully dealing with a range of subjects with quantitative content. Specifically, in the field of statistics, difficulties to reach some basic academic achievements have been observed. Hence, a continuing challenge for statistics teachers is how to make this subject more appealing for students through the design and implementation of new teaching methodologies. The latter tend to follow two main approaches. On the one hand, it is useful for the learning process to propose practical activities that can connect theoretical concepts with real applications in the economic context. On the other hand, we …

Bayesian hierarchical Poisson models with a hidden Markov structure for the detection of influenza epidemic outbreaks

2015

Considerable effort has been devoted to the development of statistical algorithms for the automated monitoring of influenza surveillance data. In this article, we introduce a framework of models for the early detection of the onset of an influenza epidemic which is applicable to different kinds of surveillance data. In particular, the process of the observed cases is modelled via a Bayesian Hierarchical Poisson model in which the intensity parameter is a function of the incidence rate. The key point is to consider this incidence rate as a normal distribution in which both parameters (mean and variance) are modelled differently, depending on whether the system is in an epidemic or non-epide…

Bayesian Markov switching models for the early detection of influenza epidemics

2008

The early detection of outbreaks of diseases is one of the most challenging objectives of epidemiological surveillance systems. In this paper, a Markov switching model is introduced to determine the epidemic and non-epidemic periods from influenza surveillance data: the process of differenced incidence rates is modelled either with a first-order autoregressive process or with a Gaussian white-noise process depending on whether the system is in an epidemic or in a non-epidemic phase. The transition between phases of the disease is modelled as a Markovian process. Bayesian inference is carried out on the former model to detect influenza epidemics at the very moment of their onset. Moreover, t…

Tailoring sparse multivariable regression techniques for prognostic single-nucleotide polymorphism signatures.

2011

When seeking prognostic information for patients, modern technologies provide a huge amount of genomic measurements as a starting point. For single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), there may be more than one million covariates that need to be simultaneously considered with respect to a clinical endpoint. Although the underlying biological problem cannot be solved on the basis of clinical cohorts of only modest size, some important SNPs might still be identified. Sparse multivariable regression techniques have recently become available for automatically identifying prognostic molecular signatures that comprise relatively few covariates and provide reasonable prediction performance. For illus…

Visualizing parameters from loglinear models

2004

This paper presents a graphical display for the parameters resulting from loglinear models. Loglinear models provide a method for analyzing associations between two or several categorical variables and have become widely accepted as a tool for researchers during the last two decades. An important part of the output of any computer program focused on loglinear models is that devoted to estimation of parameters in the model. Traditionally, this output has been presented using tables that indicate the values of the coefficients, the associated standard errors and other related information. Evaluation of these tables can be rather tedious because of the number of values shown as well as their r…