Search results for "Stochastic model"

Stochastic model for a biological complex system: analysis of the bacterial growth in food products

2012

The Physics of Complex Systems has recently taken a more and more important role in the description of natural systems because of the interactions, both deterministic and noisy, between such systems and the environment. In particular the noise plays a relevant role in biological systems, whose dynamics is strongly influenced by environmental variables subject to random fluctuations. In this work a stochastic model is exploited to reproduce the growth of bacteria in food of animal origin. Specifically the dynamics of a bacterial species, Listeria monocytogenes, is analyzed in the presence of lactic acid bacteria (LAB) during the period of the fermentation of meat products. The model, based o…

Translocation dynamics of a short polymer driven by an oscillating force

2013

Under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License.

Landslides susceptibility stochastic modelling under earthquakes and rainfalls triggering: applications to 2001 earthquakes (13th January and 13th Fe…

2022

Predicting storm-triggered debris flow events: application to the 2009 Ionian Peloritan disaster (Sicily, Italy)

2015

Abstract. The main assumption on which landslide susceptibility assessment by means of stochastic modelling lies is that the past is the key to the future. As a consequence, a stochastic model able to classify past known landslide events should be able to predict a future unknown scenario as well. However, storm-triggered multiple debris flow events in the Mediterranean region could pose some limits on the operative validity of such an expectation, as they are typically resultant of a randomness in time recurrence and magnitude and a great spatial variability, even at the scale of small catchments. This is the case for the 2007 and 2009 storm events, which recently hit north-eastern Sicily …

On stochastic modelling and reliability of systems with moving cracked material

2015

In many industrial processes, such as printing paper, a material travels through a series of rollers unsupported and under longitudinal tension. The value of the tension has an important role in the system behaviour, such as fracture and me- chanical stability. This thesis develops stochastic models for a system in which an elastic, isotropic cracked material travels through a series of spans and studies the probabilities of fracture and instability of the material. The models focus on describing tension variations and initial cracks in the material. Time-dependent tension fluctuations are modelled by the stationary Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, and the occurrence and lengths of the cracks are…

A Multivariate Age-Structured Stochastic Model with Immunization Strategies to Describe Bronchiolitis Dynamics

2021

Bronchiolitis has a high morbidity in children under 2 years old. Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is the most common pathogen causing the disease. At present, there is only a costly humanized monoclonal RSV-specific antibody to prevent RSV. However, different immunization strategies are being developed. Hence, evaluation and comparison of their impact is important for policymakers. The analysis of the disease with a Bayesian stochastic compartmental model provided an improved and more natural description of its dynamics. However, the consideration of different age groups is still needed, since disease transmission greatly varies with age. In this work, we propose a multivariate age-struct…

Stochastic fracture analysis of systems with moving material

2015

This paper considers the probability of fracture in a system in which a material travels supported by rollers. The moving material is subjected to longitudinal tension for which deterministic and stochastic models are studied. In the stochastic model, the tension is described by a multi-dimensional Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process. The material is assumed to have initial cracks perpendicular to the travelling direction, and a stochastic counting process describes the occurrence of cracks in the longitudinal direction of the material. The material is modelled as isotropic and elastic, and LEFM is applied. For a general counting process, when there is no fluctuation in tension, the reliability of t…

Analysis of the Effects of Reservoir Operating Scenarios on Downstream Flood Damage Risk Using an Integrated Monte Carlo Modelling Approach

2023

The aim of this study is to analyse the effects of reservoir operating scenarios, for flood damage evaluation downstream of a dam, using a Monte Carlo bivariate modelling chain. The proposed methodology involves a stochastic procedure to calculate flood hydrographs and the evaluation of the consequent flood inundation area by applying a 2D hydraulic model. These results are used to estimate the inundation risk and, as consequence, the relative damage evaluation under different water level conditions in an upstream reservoir. The modelling chain can be summarized as follows: single synthetic stochastic rainfall event generation by using a Monte Carlo procedure through a bivariate copulas ana…

The uncertainty of the energy demand in existing mediterranean urban blocks

2013

The objective of the paper is to describe a stochastic model that has been developed to obtain load profiles for household electricity. For the study, several profiles have been generated in order to simulate the electrical demand of a residential building block or neighbourhood and evaluate the uncertainty of its energy use. The paper is divided in three different parts: development of the model, validation and determination of the uncertainty demand. In the first parts the basis of the model and how it works is explained. The second one represents the validation of the model, the input data and its results. The last step is focused on a statistical analysis of the electricity demand of a …