Search results for "Stylized fact"
showing 10 items of 41 documents
When financial economics influences physics: The role of Econophysics
2019
This paper aims at analyzing the unexpected influence of Financial economics on Physics. The rise of Econophysics, a fundamentally new approach in finance, suggests that the influence between the two disciplines becomes less unilateral than in the past. Methodological debates emerging in Econophysics led physicists to acknowledge that dealing with financial complex systems contributed to a wider modelling of their field. The approach of econophysicists suggests that physicists might try to conceptualize physical phenomena by integrating elements they faced with in Financial economics, and more generally in Economics. Surprisingly, many of econophysicists’ argumentations have some methodolog…
The role of stock markets vs. the term spread in forecasting macrovariables in Finland
2011
Abstract A substantial body of stylized facts and empirical evidence exists regarding the relationships between financial variables and the macroeconomy in the United States. However, the question of whether this evidence is consistent with the cases of small open economies is less known. This paper focuses on the forecasting content of stock returns and volatility vs. the term spread for GDP, private consumption, industrial production and the inflation rate in Finland. Our results suggest that during normal times, the term spread is a much better tool than stock market variables for predicting real activity. However, during exceptional times, such as the recent financial crisis, the foreca…
Modeling Term Structure Dynamics in the Nordic Electricity Swap Market
2010
We analyze the daily returns of Nordic electricity swaps and identify significant risk premia in the short end of the market. On average, long positions in this part of the swap market yield negative returns. The daily returns are distinctively non-normal in terms of tail-fatness, but we find little evidence of asymmetry. We investigate if the flexible four-parameter class of normal inverse Gaussian (NIG) distributions can capture the observed stylized facts and find that this class of distributions offers a remarkably improved fit relative to the normal distribution. We also compare the fit with that of the four-parameter class of stable distributions; the NIG law outperforms the stable la…
Geographical distribution of crime in Italian provinces: a spatial econometric analysis
2009
For a long time social sciences scholars from different fields have devoted their attention to identifying the causes leading to commit criminal offences and recently lots of studies have included the analysis of spatial effects. Respect to the Italian crime phenomenon some stylized facts exist: high spatial and time variability and presence of “organised crime” (e.g. Mafia and Camorra) deep-seated in some local territorial areas. Using explanatory spatial data analysis, the paper firstly explores the spatial structure and distribution of four different typologies of crimes (murders, thefts, frauds, and squeezes) in Italian provinces in two years, 1999 and 2003. ESDA allows us to detect som…
Modeling the Dynamics of a Financial Index after a Crash
2004
Supply and demand are perhaps the most fundamental concepts in economics. In a financial market they reflects the orders of the agents to buy or sell a given asset. In turn the fluctuations of supply and demand influence the dynamics of the price of an asset, as, for example, a stock or a financial index. Therefore the dynamics of the price of an asset is affected by the actions and of the beliefs of the agents. It is known that the dynamics of the price of an asset is far from simple, Several stylized facts has been empirically discovered such as, for example, the fat tails in the return distribution and the clustered volatility. These stylized facts has been detected by considering long t…
Contract and Asset Values in Venture Capital Financings
2009
In venture capital financings a venture capitalist buys some fraction of a company, for a stated amount of money, through preferred shares. It is common practice in empirical and theoretical analyses to infer from this transaction a value for the entire company, which we call the contract value. Owners do not hold shares with the same rights and so the contract value misrepresents the company value of all assets (asset value). This paper studies a stylized venture capital market, calculates the ratio of contract to asset value, and derives the expected returns both at the level of venture capital funds and at the company level. We study quantitatively the impact on econometric analyses and …
Multi-agent-based Order Book Model of financial markets
2006
We introduce a simple model for simulating financial markets, based on an order book, in which several agents trade one asset at a virtual exchange continuously. For a stationary market the structure of the model, the order flow rates of the different kinds of order types and the used price time priority matching algorithm produce only a diffusive price behavior. We show that a market trend, i.e. an asymmetric order flow of any type, leads to a non-trivial Hurst exponent for the price development, but not to "fat-tailed" return distributions. When one additionally couples the order entry depth to the prevailing trend, also the stylized empirical fact of "fat tails" can be reproduced by our …
Statistical analysis of financial returns for a multiagent order book model of asset trading
2007
We recently introduced a realistic order book model [T. Preis, Europhys. Lett. 75, 510 (2006)] which is able to generate the stylized facts of financial markets. We analyze this model in detail, explain the consequences of the use of different groups of traders, and focus on the foundation of a nontrivial Hurst exponent based on the introduction of a market trend. Our order book model supports the theoretical argument that a nontrivial Hurst exponent implies not necessarily long-term correlations. A coupling of the order placement depth to the market trend can produce fat tails, which can be described by a truncated Lévy distribution.
Is the EUA a new asset class?
2022
The listing of a new asset requires knowledge of its statistical properties prior to its use for hedging, speculative or risk management purposes. In this paper, the authors study the stylised facts of European Union Allowances (EUAs) returns. The majority of the phenomena observed, such as heavy tails, volatility clustering, asymmetric volatility and the presence of a high number of outliers are similar to those observed in both commodity futures and financial assets. However, properties such as negative asymmetry, positive correlation with stocks indexes and higher volatility levels during the trading session, typical of financial assets, and the existence of inflation hedge and positive …
Producer Prices in the Transition to a Common Currency
2006
We analyze producer price developments in the transition from a national exchange rate regime to a monetary union. The focus is on the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). Stylized facts witness about an exploding gaps in producer-price inflation during the years immediately following the completion of the EMU. Price convergence is found to be an important driver throughout the entire euro period (1999-2005), but with no significant differences in speed compared to the pre euro period. Productivity growth had its primary effect in the first years and effective exchange-rate changes in the later years of the euro period.