Search results for "TIME"

Economic policy uncertainty effects for forecasting future real economic activity

2018

Recently introduced measures for Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) included in the data from 1997 - 2016 have a role in forecasting out-of-sample values for the future real economic activity for both the euro area and the UK economies. The inclusion of EPU measures, either for the US, the UK or for overall European economies, improves the forecasting ability of models based on standard financial market information, especially for the period before the 2008 global crisis. However, during and after the crisis period, the slope of the yield curve and excess stock market returns improves the out-of-sample forecast performance the most compared to an AR-benchmark model. Hence, the EPU informatio…

Small fish in big ponds : Connections of green finance assets to commodity and sectoral stock markets

2022

We analyze return and volatility connectedness of the rising green asset and the well-established US industry stock and commodity markets from September 2010 to July 2021. We find that the time-varying return and volatility connectedness have exhibited serious crisis jumps. Some individual assets of both the green and commodity markets are in connection to the US sectoral stock market returns, and the volatility connections are even more common than the return connections. Furthermore, some financial and economic uncertainty indicators manifest positive impacts from the volatility of some `big pond markets for e.g. commodities, whereas some others affect the connectedness negatively. Additi…

The emissions reduction potential of substituting short-haul flights with non-high-speed rail (NHSR) : The case of Finland

2021

Replacing short-haul flights with high-speed rail (HSR) has been widely discussed as one solution to mitigate the climate change impacts of aviation. However, although HSR can provide travel times similar to those provided by short-haul flights, and at lower emission levels, it also requires considerable investments in time and infrastructure to build. Instead, this study considers the feasibility of replacing short-haul flights with existing non-high-speed rail (NHSR). Our study is based in Finland, a country that has an extensive route network of short-haul flights but does not possess any HSR. We compared all 16 city pairs for which short-haul flights are offered with existing NHSR based…

Studying the relationships between hourly precipitation extremes and dewpoint temperature in Sicily.

2019

According to the well-known Clausius-Clapeyron relation, the maximum moisture content of the atmosphere increases with approximately 7% per degree temperature raise (CC-scaling rate). Under the hypothesis that relative humidity does not change, an increase in the water vapor should occur at the same rate. For this reason we could expect for the coming years an increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation as a consequence of the global climate warming. Trend on precipitation extremes and possible links to changes in atmospheric temperature and moisture are investigated in different parts of the world, and a number of observational studies has exhibited scaling rates that are either hig…

Trend of inter-arrival times of rainfall events for Italian Sub-Alpine and Mediterranean areas

2011

A simple scaling procedure to assess the impact of climate change on extreme precipitation

2017

In this study we used the products of the Regional Climate Models (RCMs) to evaluate the impact of climate alterations on extreme events across the Region of Sicily (Italy). Data have been retrieved from EURO-CORDEX simulations at 12 km of spatial resolution. Because of the low resolution, the RCMs products are likely unsuitable to reproduce consistently sub-daily heavy precipitations. For this reason, extreme events at daily scale were first checked out by comparing the quantiles estimated from raingauge observations and RCMs outputs. Secondly, we implemented a temporal downscaling approach to estimate rainfall for durations of 1, 3, 6, 12, 24 hours from the modeled daily precipitation. La…

A physically-based and distributed tool for modeling the hydrological and mechanical processes of shallow landslides

2015

This work presents the capabilities of a model, i.e. the tRIBS-VEGGIE-Landslide, in two different versions, i.e. developed within a probabilistic framework and coupled with a root cohesion module. The probabilistic model treats geotechnical and soil retention curve parameters as random variables across the basin and estimates theoretical probability distributions of slope stability and the associated “factor of safety” commonly used to describe the occurrence of shallow landslides. The derived distributions are used to obtain the spatiotemporal dynamics of probability of failure, conditioned on soil moisture dynamics at each watershed location. The framework has been tested in the Luquillo …

DEM-resolution control on rainfall-triggered landslide modeling within a triangulated network-based model

2019

Catchment slope distribution significantly controls rainfall-triggered landslide modeling, in both direct and indirect ways. Slope directly determines the soil volume associated with instability. Indirectly, it affects the subsurface lateral redistribution of soil moisture across the basin, which in turn determines the water pore pressure conditions that impact slope stability. It is thus clear that the accuracy in reproducing slope distribution may be crucial in slope stability analysis. The resolution of the Digital Elevation Model (DEM) regulates the description of the topography. The correlation between raster resolution and landslide model outputs has been investigated in the literatur…

INFLUENCE OF RAINFALL OBSERVATION NETWORK ON MODELED HYDROLOGICAL RESPONSE

2012

Precipitation data, one of the most important input required in hydrological modeling and forecasting, are usually recorded using raingauges which are classical and fundamental tools able to provide an estimate of rainfall at a point. The consistency of precipitation monitoring network in terms of spatial scale (network density and location of raingauges) and time resolution has to be capable to reproduce, with acceptable accuracy, the characteristics of the flood phenomenon. In this context, over the last thirty years, several studies concerning the influence of point measurement of rainfall for the estimation of total runoff volume have been carried out. Aim of this paper is using a physi…

Generalized wave propagation problems and discrete exterior calculus

2018

We introduce a general class of second-order boundary value problems unifying application areas such as acoustics, electromagnetism, elastodynamics, quantum mechanics, and so on, into a single framework. This also enables us to solve wave propagation problems very efficiently with a single software system. The solution method precisely follows the conservation laws in finite-dimensional systems, whereas the constitutive relations are imposed approximately. We employ discrete exterior calculus for the spatial discretization, use natural crystal structures for three-dimensional meshing, and derive a “discrete Hodge” adapted to harmonic wave. The numerical experiments indicate that the cumulat…