Search results for "TRADE"
showing 10 items of 1475 documents
HOW DO FISCAL CONSOLIDATION AND FISCAL STIMULI IMPACT ON THE SYNCHRONIZATION OF BUSINESS CYCLES?
2016
Using quarterly data for a panel of advanced economies, we show that synchronized fiscal consolidation (stimulus) programmes in different countries make their business cycles more closely linked. We also find: (i) some evidence of decoupling when an inflation targeting regime is unilaterally adopted; (ii) an increase in business cycle synchronization when countries fix their exchange rates and become members of a monetary union; (iii) a positive effect of bilateral trade on the synchronization of business cycles. Global factors, such as a rise in global risk aversion and uncertainty and a reversal of nonstandard expansionary monetary policy, can also reduce the degree of co-movement of busi…
From stationary state to endogenous growth: International trade in the mathematical formulation of the Ricardian system
2015
In his 1814–15 correspondence with Malthus and in his Essay on Profits, Ricardo championed the free importation of wage goods as a highly effective growth-enhancing policy. In order to capture this aspect in the mathematical formulation of the Ricardian system first introduced by Pasinetti in 1960 in the context of a closed economy, we produce a variant of that model where the economy is a small open one. We show that this economy is characterised by endogenous growth since the growth rate is bounded from below and we locate two thresholds concerning the allocation of labour among the two sectors of the economy and the pattern of international trade.
The factor content of regional bilateral trade: The role of technology and demand
2011
Abstract The Heckscher–Ohlin–Vanek (HOV) model in its strict form has been strongly rejected by the data. Relaxing some assumptions of the standard HOV model is key to find improvements in its performance. We apply the Davis and Weinstein (2001) methodology to analyse the validity of the HOV model using regions rather than countries. Surprisingly, our results using data for 17 Spanish regions are similar to theirs with international data for OECD countries. Accounting for technological differences improves the predictive capacity of the factor proportions model and including trade costs and geography reduces significantly the missing trade problem. However, relaxing the assumption of factor…
Technology spillover effects within Spanish communities
2017
ABSTRACTThe article uses panel data for the period 1990–2010 to estimate technology spillover effects on 17 Spanish communities. Accounting for nonstationarity and cointegration, we use the dynamic OLS estimator to estimate the impact of domestic and non-domestic R&D capital stock on labour productivity of Spanish communities, taking into account trade-, migration- and foreign direct investment (FDI)-related technology diffusion channels. We find significant trade-related spillover effects within Spanish communities and from EU countries. On average, an increase in the non-domestic R&D stock of 1% increases their labour productivity between 0.02% and 0.12% if related to bilateral trade patt…
Is the ‘euro effect’ on trade so small after all? New evidence using gravity equations with panel cointegration techniques
2014
In this paper we present new evidence on the aggregate effect of the euro on trade using data for 26 OECD countries for the period 1967–2008. We strive to fill the gaps present in the previous literature through a second-generation panel cointegration tests and estimators that account for both cross-section dependence in the data and discontinuities in the deterministic and the cointegrating vector in the time dimension. This approach allows us to put the adoption of the euro by EMU members in historical perspective. We argue that the creation of the EMU is best interpreted as a progression of policy changes. Once we control for all of them the euro effect decreases considerably but is stil…
Tax Design in the OECD: A Test of the Hines-Summers Hypothesis
2011
This paper investigates the effects of economic size and trade openness on tax design in the OECD. Using data for 30 OECD countries over the 1965–2007 period, we test the recently proposed Hines-Summers [2009] Hypothesis, according to which the smaller the size and the greater the openness of the economy, the more it will rely on expenditure taxes and the less on income taxes. Our findings show that the Hines-Summers Hypothesis can claim broad, statistically significant, and robust empirical support in the OECD data sets we examined.
Disaggregate Real Exchange Rate Behaviour
2007
In this paper, we re-examine the “PPP Puzzle” using sectoral disaggregated data. Specifically, we first analyse the mean reversion speeds of real exchange rates for a number of different sectors in eleven industrial economies and then focus on relating these rates to variables identified in the literature as key determinants of CPI-based real exchange rates, namely: the trade balance, productivity and the mark up. In particular, we seek to understand to what extent the relationships existing at the aggregate level are borne out at the disaggregate level. We believe that this analysis can help shed light on the PPP puzzle.
Estimating the gravity equation with the actual number of exporting firms
2013
Para estimar correctamente el efecto de los costes de comerciar sobre las exportaciones de las empresas, la ecuación de gravedad debe controlar por el número de empresas que opera en el mercado internacional. Debido a la ausencia de datos, estudios anteriores han controlado esta variable mediante técnicas econométricas que también pueden generar estimaciones sesgadas. Para superar estos problemas este trabajo estima una ecuación de gravedad utilizando una nueva base de datos de la OCDE y EUROSTAT , que incluye el número de empresas exportadoras en cada relación bilateral. Nuestros resultados muestran que no controlar el margen extensivo genera sesgos muy importantes en la estimación de los …
Fiscal Devaluations in EMU
2013
2013SummaryWe use a small open economy general equilibrium model to analyse the effects of a fiscal devalua-tion in an EMU country. The model has been calibrated for the Spanish economy, which is a goodexample of the advantages of a change in the tax mix given that its tax system shows a positive biasin the ratio of social security contributions over consumption taxes. The preliminary empirical evi-dence for European countries shows that this bias was negatively correlated with the current accountbalance in the expansionary years leading up to the 2009 crisis, a period when many EMU membersaccumulated large external imbalances. Our simulation results point to significant positive effects of…
From endogenous growth to stationary state: The world economy in the mathematical formulation of the Ricardian system
2016
AbstractWe analyse international trade in a Pasinetti–Ricardo growth model in the world economy scenario in which several small trading countries coexist and international commodity prices are determined by the interplay of supply and demand amongst them. We demonstrate that all the trading countries eventually reach the stationary state, though this process is not monotonic and the dynamics of capital and population may actually push some countries towards the stationary state and others away from it. We also use our model to assess an argument which Malthus employed in the second edition of An Essay on the Principle of Population (1803) to support a policy of agricultural protectionism.