Search results for "Time horizon"
showing 10 items of 47 documents
Trend Switching Processes in Financial Markets
2010
For an intriguing variety of switching processes in nature, the underlying complex system abruptly changes at a specific point from one state to another in a highly discontinuous fashion. Financial market fluctuations are characterized by many abrupt switchings creating increasing trends (“bubble formation”) and decreasing trends (“bubble collapse”), on time scales ranging from macroscopic bubbles persisting for hundreds of days to microscopic bubbles persisting only for very short time scales. Our analysis is based on a German DAX Future data base containing 13,991,275 transactions recorded with a time resolution of 10− 2 s. For a parallel analysis, we use a data base of all S&P500 stocks …
Interest rate changes and stock returns: A European multi-country study with wavelets
2016
Abstract This paper investigates the linkage between changes in 10-year government bond yields and stock returns for the major European countries in the time-frequency domain by using a number of cross-wavelet tools in the framework of the continuous wavelet transform, mainly the wavelet coherence and phase-difference. The results reveal that the degree of connection between 10-year bond rate movements and stock returns differs considerably among countries and also varies over time and depending on the time horizon considered. In particular, the UK shows the greatest interdependence between long-term interest rates and equity returns across time and frequencies, while the relationship is mu…
On the Convergence of Tsetlin Machines for the IDENTITY- and NOT Operators
2020
The Tsetlin Machine (TM) is a recent machine learning algorithm with several distinct properties, such as interpretability, simplicity, and hardware-friendliness. Although numerous empirical evaluations report on its performance, the mathematical analysis of its convergence is still open. In this article, we analyze the convergence of the TM with only one clause involved for classification. More specifically, we examine two basic logical operators, namely, the "IDENTITY"- and "NOT" operators. Our analysis reveals that the TM, with just one clause, can converge correctly to the intended logical operator, learning from training data over an infinite time horizon. Besides, it can capture arbit…
Commercial and financial policies in family firms: The small business growth management flight simulator
2000
An interactive learning environment (ILE) was built to reproduce the budgeting process of a small family-owned entrepreneurial firm and to capture how current decisions affect business growth in a longer time horizon. The ILE matches the accounting-related perspective through which spreadsheet-based budgets are drawn up, with the system dynamics (SD) view. Such a goal has been pursued through a connection of traditional Excel spreadsheets with POWERSIM SD models. Playing the SMALL BUSINESS GROWTH MANAGEMENT FLIGHT SIMULATOR allows one to learn how (a) to draw up a budget based on an SD perspective, (b) long-term goals may be affected by current decisions, (c) business/family survival and gr…
Interest rate changes and stock returns in Spain: A wavelet analysis
2015
This paper investigates the relationship between changes in interest rates and the Spanish stock market at the industry level over the period from January 1993 to December 2012 using a wavelet-based approach. The empirical results indicate that Spanish industries exhibit, in general, a significant interest rate sensitivity, although the degree of interest rate exposure differs considerably across industries and depending on the time horizon under consideration. In particular, regulated industries such as Utilities, highly indebted industries such as Real Estate, Utilities or Technology and Telecommunications, and the Banking industry emerge as the most vulnerable to interest rates. Further,…
Manufacturing Strategy: Production Problem Analysis for Assessing Focused Flexibility
2008
The objective of this chapter is to define an operationalization pattern which supports decision makers and managers in determining the level of manufacturing flexibility competences, given the business strategy and the manufacturing structure of the firm. This should drive the production system design and configuration activity. Specifically, this chapter presents an innovative approach to develop a manufacturing strategy, which is based on the idea that information on potential production problems that the manufacturing system could face throughout a given long-term planning horizon should be used as a starting point to determine the level of flexibility that the system should possess.
Optimal control of option portfolios and applications
1999
We present an expected utility maximisation framework for optimally controlling a portfolio of options. By combining the replication approach to option pricing with ideas of the martingale approach to (stock) portfolio optimisation we arrive at an explicit solution of the option portfolio problem. Its characteristics are illustrated by some specific examples. As an application, we calculate an optimal option and consumption strategy for an investor who is obliged to hold a stock position until the time horizon.
Smart multi-carrier energy system: Optimised energy management and investment analysis
2016
This paper proposes an optimised Energy Management System for a multi-carrier hub, which integrates two energy distribution networks, for hydrogen and electricity. The economic sustainability of a real-life instantiation of such a system has been analysed as well. The Energy Management System has been developed by means of a multi-objective optimisation algorithm, the Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II, implemented using MATLAB®. The achieved results consist in a series of set-points defining the working conditions of the plant for a chosen time horizon. Data provided by this process also show the effectiveness of the adopted optimisation approach. The financial analysis is performe…
Hydropower Optimization Using Split-Window, Meta-Heuristic and Genetic Algorithms
2019
In this paper, we try to find the most efficient optimization algorithm that can be used to resolve the hydropower optimization problem. We propose a novel optimization technique is called the Split-window method. The method is relatively simple and reduces the complexity of the optimization problem by split-ting the planning horizon (and datasets) into equal windows and assigning the same values to policies(actions) within each part. After splitting, a meta-heuristic technique is used to optimize the actions, and the dataset is split again until a split contains only one instance (timestep). The unique values to be optimized during each iteration is equal to the number of splits which make…
Fuzzy green vehicle routing problem for designing a three echelons supply chain
2020
Abstract In this study, a three-echelon fuzzy green vehicle routing problem (3E-FGVRP) is considered for designing a regional agri-food supply chain on a time horizon. To account for the variability associated with the quantities requested by customers, it is assumed that the demands are fuzzy numbers simulated by a time-dependent algorithm. Moreover, the vehicle fleet and distribution centres are considered with a defined capacity. The credibility theory of fuzzy sets is used to implement a multi-objective fuzzy chance-constrained programming model, where the total costs and carbon emissions are minimised. The resolution of the 3E-FGVRP is conducted by using a non-dominated sorting genetic…