Search results for "Trading strategy"
showing 10 items of 20 documents
Adaptive and Dynamic Ant Colony Search Algorithm for Optimal Distribution Systems Reinforcement Strategy
2006
The metaheuristic technique of Ant Colony Search has been revised here in order to deal with dynamic search optimization problems having a large search space and mixed integer variables. The problem to which it has been applied is an electrical distribution systems management problem. This kind of issues is indeed getting increasingly complicated due to the introduction of new energy trading strategies, new environmental constraints and new technologies. In particular, in this paper, the problem of finding the optimal reinforcement strategy to provide reliable and economic service to customers in a given time frame is investigated. Utilities indeed need efficient software tools to take deci…
Performance Measurement and Outperformance Tests
2017
This chapter explains how to evaluate the performance of a trading strategy and how to carry out a statistical test of the hypothesis that a moving average trading strategy outperforms the corresponding buy-and-hold strategy. In particular, it argues that there is no unique performance measure, reviews the most popular performance measures, and points to the limitations of these measures. The chapter then surveys the parametric methods of testing the outperformance hypothesis and the current “state of the art” non-parametric methods.
Congestion management rules and trading strategies in the Spanish electricity market
2009
Abstract This paper analyses the economic incentives embodied in the rules governing the resolution of transmission constraints in the Spanish wholesale electricity market and the way these incentives may have influenced on the trading behaviour of both the generators and the demand side. The evidence obtained is consistent with them responding to these incentives. In particular, buyers would respond to the way congestion costs are billed to them by abandoning the daily market in favour of the intraday market as far as possible. Additionally, some strategic generators may have been prompted the system operator to require them to inject electricity into the system to solve network congestion…
Market Timing with Moving Averages: Anatomy and Performance of Trading Rules
2015
The underlying concept behind the technical trading indicators based on moving averages of prices has remained unaltered for more than half of a century. The development in this field has consisted in proposing new ad-hoc rules and using more elaborate types of moving averages in the existing rules, without any deeper analysis of commonalities and differences between miscellaneous choices for trading rules and moving averages. The first contribution of this paper is to uncover the anatomy of market timing rules with moving averages. Our analysis offers a new and very insightful reinterpretation of the existing rules and demonstrates that the computation of every trading indicator can equiva…
(In)Efficiencies in Latin American ETFs
2017
Este estudio evalúa empíricamente la eficiencia en la valoración de varios ETFs latinoamericanos, expresada en desviaciones de sus precios de mercado frente a los valores liquidativos subyacentes. Se cuantifican tales ineficiencias y se implementa una estrategia de negociación verificada por regresiones basadas en el CAPM y el Modelo Fama-French. Los resultados discrepan con la Hipótesis de los Mercados Eficientes y son mejor explicados por aspectos de las finanzas comportamentales. Finalmente, se examina cómo las desviaciones influyen sobre la decisión de creación o redención de ETFs, mediante un análisis de regresión logística. Los resultados evidencian que los participantes autorizados r…
Another Look at Value and Momentum: Volatility Spillovers
2017
This paper examines volatility interdependencies between value and momentum returns. Using U.S. data over the period 1926-2015, we document persistent periods of low and high volatility spillovers between value and momentum strategies. Moreover, we find that the intensity of the volatility spillovers may change substantially in very short periods of time and that these shifts in spillover intensity can be linked to prominent economic events and financial market turmoil. Our results further demonstrate that value returns increase and momentum returns decrease monotonically with increasing volatility spillovers between the two strategies. Given this linkage between spillover intensity and ret…
Local Expected Shortfall-Hedging
2001
This paper proposes a self-financing trading strategy that minimizes the expected shortfall locally when hedging a European contingent claim. A positive shortfall occurs if the hedger is not willing to follow a perfect hedging or a superhedging strategy. In contrast to the classical variance criterion, the expected shortfall criterion depends only on undesirable outcomes where the terminal value of the written option exceeds the terminal value of the hedge portfolio. Searching a strategy which minimizes the expected shortfall is equivalent to the iterative solution of linear programs whose number increases exponentially with respect to the number of trading dates. Therefore, we partition th…
Trading in Other Financial Markets
2017
This chapter tests the profitability of various moving average trading rules in different financial markets: stocks, bonds, currencies, and commodities. The results of these tests allow us to better understand the properties of the moving average trading strategies and find out which trading rules are profitable in which markets. The chapter concludes with a few practical recommendations for traders testing the profitability of moving average trading rules. The analysis presented in this chapter also suggests a hypothesis about simultaneous existence, in the same financial market, of several trends with different durations.
Transaction Costs and Returns to a Trading Strategy
2017
This chapter starts with a review of transaction costs in capital markets. Then it demonstrates how to simulate the returns to a moving average trading strategy in the presence of transaction costs. The following two cases are considered when a trading indicator generates a sell signal: case one where the trader switches to cash, and case two where the trader alternatively sells short a financial asset.
Impact of Wind Electricity Forecasts on Bidding Strategies
2017
The change in the generation mix from conventional electricity sources to renewables has important implications for bidding behaviour and may have an impact on prices. The main goal of this work is to discover the role played by expected wind production, together with other relevant factors, in explaining the day-ahead market price through a data panel model. The Spanish market, given the huge increase in wind generation observed in the last decade, has been chosen for this study as a paradigmatic example. The results obtained suggest that wind power forecasts are a new key determinant for supply market participants when bidding in the day-ahead market. We also provide a conservative quanti…