Search results for "Uncertainty analysis"
showing 10 items of 91 documents
Role of Modeling Uncertainty in the Estimation of Climate and Socioeconomic Impact on River Water Quality
2012
AbstractClimate is one of the most important factors leading to changes in the hydrologic and environmental characteristics of river basins. When considering water quality, the natural factors should be weighed against anthropogenic factors (such as urbanization, increased population, and higher water demand) that may increase or decrease the effect of climatic modifications. Any prediction of future climatic and anthropogenic scenarios is affected by uncertainty and the modelling tools that are used for evaluating their impact on receiving water bodies. The present paper is aimed at investigating the complexity of such analyses and the uncertainty related to future impact predictions based…
Uncertainty analysis of the influence of rainfall time resolution in the modelling of urban drainage systems
2005
In urban drainage modelling, rainfall temporal variability can be considered as one of the most critical knowledge elements when dealing with rainfall–runoff models input data. The rainfall data temporal resolution usually available for practical applications is often lower than that requested for the rainfall–runoff simulation in urban areas, greatly compromising model accuracy. The present paper evaluates the influence of rainfall temporal resolution on the uncertainty of the response of rainfall–runoff modelling in urban environments. Analyses have been carried out using historical rainfall–discharge data collected for about 10 years in Parco d'Orleans experimental catchment (Palermo, It…
Uncertainty assessment of an integrated urban drainage model
2009
Over the last few years, the use of mathematical models has gained importance in urban drainage system management; indeed, such models enable the combined analysis of different components that constitute a drainage system; the sewer system, wastewater treatment plant and the receiving water body. The effectiveness of an integrated approach has been widely demonstrated in the past and is presented in the EU Water Framework Directive, which also introduces a new point of view regarding the water quality management of the whole system, requiring a global analysis at the river basin scale for pollutant sources. However, integrated urban drainage models introduce several uncertain factors that a…
Uncertainty Assessment of a Water-Quality Model for Ephemeral Rivers Using GLUE Analysis
2011
Every model is, by definition, a simplification of the system under investigation. Although it would be desirable to reduce the gap between the simulated and the observed behaviors of the system to zero, this reduction is generally impossible owing to the unavoidable uncertainties inherent in any modeling procedure. Uncertainty analyses can provide useful insights into the best model approach to be used for obtaining results with a high level of significance and reliability. The evaluation of parameter uncertainties is necessary for calibration and for estimating the impact of these uncertainties on model performance. In this context, the uncertainty of a river water-quality model developed…
Assessment of data availability influence on integrated urban drainage modelling uncertainty
2009
In urban water quality management, several models are connected and integrated for analysing the fate of pollutants from the sources in the urban catchment to the final recipient; classical problems connected with the selection and calibration of parameters are amplified by the complexity of the modelling approach increasing their uncertainty. The present paper aims at studying the influence of reductions in available data on the modelling response uncertainty with respect to the different integrated modelling outputs (both considering quantity and quality variables). At this scope, a parsimonious integrated home-made model has been used allowing for analysing the combinative effect of data…
Inventory Control Under Parametric Uncertainty of Underlying Models
2013
A large number of problems in inventory control, production planning and scheduling, location, transportation, finance, and engineering design require that decisions be made in the presence of uncertainty of underlying models. In the present paper we consider the case, where it is known that the underlying distribution belongs to a parametric family of distributions. The problem of determining an optimal decision rule in the absence of complete information about the underlying distribution, i.e., when we specify only the functional form of the distribution and leave some or all of its parameters unspecified, is seen to be a standard problem of statistical estimation. Unfortunately, the clas…
Hydrological post-processing based on approximate Bayesian computation (ABC)
2019
[EN] This study introduces a method to quantify the conditional predictive uncertainty in hydrological post-processing contexts when it is cumbersome to calculate the likelihood (intractable likelihood). Sometimes, it can be difficult to calculate the likelihood itself in hydrological modelling, specially working with complex models or with ungauged catchments. Therefore, we propose the ABC post-processor that exchanges the requirement of calculating the likelihood function by the use of some sufficient summary statistics and synthetic datasets. The aim is to show that the conditional predictive distribution is qualitatively similar produced by the exact predictive (MCMC post-processor) or …
Uncertainty Propagation in Integrated Urban Water Quality Modelling
2018
Sensitivity and uncertainty assessment of integrated urban drainage water quality models are crucial steps in the evaluation of the reliability of model results. Indeed, the assessment of the reliability of the results of complex water quality models is crucial in understanding their significance. In the case of integrated urban drainage water quality models, due to the fact that integrated approaches are basically a cascade of sub-models (simulating the sewer system, wastewater treatment plant and receiving water body), uncertainty produced in one sub-model propagates to the following ones in a manner dependent on the model structure, the estimation of parameters and the availability and u…
Improvement of Statistical Decisions under Parametric Uncertainty
2011
A large number of problems in production planning and scheduling, location, transportation, finance, and engineering design require that decisions be made in the presence of uncertainty. Decision‐making under uncertainty is a central problem in statistical inference, and has been formally studied in virtually all approaches to inference. The aim of the present paper is to show how the invariant embedding technique, the idea of which belongs to the authors, may be employed in the particular case of finding the improved statistical decisions under parametric uncertainty. This technique represents a simple and computationally attractive statistical method based on the constructive use of the i…
Uncertainty evaluation in the differential measurements of power losses in a power drive system
2021
Abstract In order to guarantee a correct classification in the standardized energy efficiency classes, the current standards concerning the power drive systems prescribe that their power losses must be evaluated with great accuracy. This circumstance involves the usage of expensive measurement systems, since accurate instrumentation, skilled personnel and controlled environments are required. During the design stage of a power drive system, however, the measurement of the absolute value of its power losses is not always needed. Often, in fact, it is enough to assess the power losses variations caused by a modification of either hardware or software sections of the power drive system. In the…