Search results for "Uncertainty"

Uncertainty propagation throughout an integrated water-quality model

2010

In integrated urban drainage water quality models, due to the fact that integrated approaches are basically a cascade of sub-models (simulating sewer system, wastewater treatment plant and receiving water body), uncertainty produced in one sub-model propagates to the following ones depending on the model structure, the estimation of parameters and the availability and uncertainty of measurements in the different parts of the system. Uncertainty basically propagates throughout a chain of models in which simulation output from upstream models is transferred to the downstream ones as input. The overall uncertainty can differ from the simple sum of uncertainties generated in each sub-model, dep…

Quantifying sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a new mathematical model for the evaluation of greenhouse gas emissions from membrane bioreactors

2015

Abstract A new mathematical model able to quantify greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in terms of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) and nitrous oxide (N 2 O) for a Membrane Bioreactor (MBR) is presented. The proposed mathematical model is of the Activated Sludge Model (ASM) family and takes into account simultaneously both biological and physical processes (e.g., membrane fouling). An analysis of the key factors and sources of uncertainty influencing GHG emissions is also presented. Specifically, the standardized regression coefficient, the Extended-FAST and a Monte Carlo based method are employed for assessing model factors which influence three performance indicators: effluent quality index, operational…

Sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a plant-wide model for carbon and energy footprint of wastewater treatment plants

2014

This paper presents the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of a mathematical model for Greenhouse gas (GHG) and energy consumption assessment from wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs). The model is able to simultaneously describe the main biological and physical-chemical processes in a WWTP. Specifically, the mathematical model includes the main processes of the water and sludge lines influencing the methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. Further, the process energy demand and the energy recovery are also taken into account. The main objective of this paper is to analyze the key factors and sources of uncertainty influencing GHG emissions from WWTP at a pla…

THE IDENTIFIABILITY ANALYSIS FOR SETTING UP MEASURING CAMPAIGNS FOR INTEGRATED WATER QUALITY MODELLING

2010

Identifiability analysis enables one the quantification of the number of model parameters that can be assessed by calibration with respect to a data set. Such a methodology is based on the appraisal of sensitivity coefficients of the model parameters by means of Monte Carlo runs. By employing the Fisher Information Matrix, the methodology is able to gain insights with respect to the number of model parameters that can be reliably assessed. The paper presents a study where identifiability analysis is used as a tool for the setting up of measuring campaigns for integrated water quality modelling. The analysis has been applied to a real case study characterized by a partially urbanized catchme…

A mathematical model for a sequential batch membrane bioreactor pilot plant

2016

A mathematical model to quantify the nitrogen removal for a membrane bioreactor (MBR) has been presented in this study. The model has been applied to a pilot plant having a pre-denitrification MBR scheme. The pilot plant was cyclically filled with real saline wastewater according to the fill-draw-batch operation. The model was calibrated by adopting a specific protocol based on extensive field dataset. The Standardized Regression Coefficient (SRC) method was adopted to select the most influential model factors to be calibrated. Results related to the SRC method have shown that model factors of the efficiency of backwashing and the biological factors affecting the soluble microbial products …

The GSA-GLUE approach for uncertainty assessment of an integrated MBR model

2012

In the recent literature, the uncertainty of wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) modelling has had relevant interest both for designers and operators. Indeed, the frequent data lacking and the need to improve process knowledge, in case of innovative technologies, make the use of mathematical models more uncertain. Therefore, the need to make model uncertainty more explicit is warmly recommended. However, only few applications of uncertainty analysis in the wastewater field have been carried out. In this work, the combination of the global sensitivity analysis (GSA) and the Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) is applied for the uncertainty assessment of a WWTP model, in order …

Parameter uncertainty analysis of water quality model for small river

2009

A new integrated MBR model for wastewater treatment: sensitivity and uncertainty analysis

2017

In this study a new integrated membrane bioreactor (MBR) model is proposed. The model is able to describe the main biological processes aimed at the carbon and the nutrients (nitrogen, N and phosphorus, P) removal coupled with the soluble microbial products (SMP) formation/degradation. Furthermore, the model describes the key physical processes and the interconnection between SMP and membrane fouling. The model was calibrated by adopting data measured during the monitoring of a University Cape Town (UCT) MBR pilot plant. A sensitivity analysis allowed the reduction of the number of model FACTORs to be calibrated from 122 to 45. A good correlation between measured and simulated data was obta…

Uncertainty of a biological nitrogen and phosphorus removal model

2010

In the last few years, the use of mathematical models in wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) processes has become a common way to predict WWTP behaviour. However, mathematical models generally demand advanced input for their implementation that must be evaluated by an extensive data gathering campaign, which cannot always be carried out. This fact, together with the intrinsic complexity of the model structure, leads to model results that may be very uncertain. Quantification of the uncertainty is imperative. However, despite the importance of uncertainty quantification, only a few studies have been carried out in the wastewater treatment field, and those studies only included a few of the sou…

ERROR AND UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS OF RESIDUAL STRESS EVALUATION BY USINGTHE RING-CORE METHOD

2014

The Ring-Core Method is a technique used for the experimental analysis of the residual stresses in mechanical components. For uniform and non-uniform residual stresses estimation, the use of the method leads in general to accurate results but, unfortunately at present the user does not have appropriate procedures to correct the obtained results from systematic errors as well as to estimate the uncertainty due to random errors. In order to overcome such drawbacks, in the present work, the procedures for the correction of the effects of the main error sources and for the stress uncertainty estimation, are proposed. The practical application of such procedures allow the user to highlight the r…