Search results for "Uncertainty"
showing 10 items of 1010 documents
What Bayesians Expect of Each Other
1991
Abstract Our goal is to study general properties of one Bayesian's subjective beliefs about the behavior of another Bayesian's subjective beliefs. We consider two Bayesians, A and B, who have different subjective distributions for a parameter θ, and study Bayesian A's expectation of Bayesian B's posterior distribution for θ given some data Y. We show that when θ can take only two values, Bayesian A always expects Bayesian B's posterior distribution to lie between the prior distributions of A and B. Conditions are given under which a similar result holds for an arbitrary real-valued parameter θ. For a vector parameter θ we present useful expressions for the mean vector and covariance matrix …
On first exit times and their means for Brownian bridges
2017
For a Brownian bridge from $0$ to $y$ we prove that the mean of the first exit time from interval $(-h,h), \,\, h>0,$ behaves as $O(h^2)$ when $h \downarrow 0.$ Similar behavior is seen to hold also for the 3-dimensional Bessel bridge. For Brownian bridge and 3-dimensional Bessel bridge this mean of the first exit time has a puzzling representation in terms of the Kolmogorov distribution. The result regarding the Brownian bridge is applied to prove in detail an estimate needed by Walsh to determine the convergence of the binomial tree scheme for European options.
A model-based approach to Spotify data analysis: a Beta GLMM
2020
Digital music distribution is increasingly powered by automated mechanisms that continuously capture, sort and analyze large amounts of Web-based data. This paper deals with the management of songs audio features from a statistical point of view. In particular, it explores the data catching mechanisms enabled by Spotify Web API and suggests statistical tools for the analysis of these data. Special attention is devoted to songs popularity and a Beta model, including random effects, is proposed in order to give the first answer to questions like: which are the determinants of popularity? The identification of a model able to describe this relationship, the determination within the set of char…
An alternative representation of Altham's multiplicative-binomial distribution
1998
Abstract Cox (1972) introduced a log-linear representation for the joint distribution of n binary-dependent responses. Altham (1978) derived the distribution of the sum of such responses, under a multiplicative, rather than log-linear, representation and called it multiplicative-binomial. We propose here an alternative form of the multiplicative-binomial, which is derived from the original Cox's representation and is characterized by intuitively meaningful parameters, and compare its first two moments with those of the standard binomial distribution.
Sparse Sampling and Maximum Likelihood Estimation for Boolean Models
1991
A condition for practical independence of contact distribution functions in Boolean models is obtained. This result allows the authors to use maximum likelihcod methods, via sparse sampling, for estimating unknown parameters of an isotropic Boolean model. The second part of this paper is devoted to a simulation study of the proposed method. AMS classification: 60D05
Automatic variable selection for exposure-driven propensity score matching with unmeasured confounders.
2020
Multivariable model building for propensity score modeling approaches is challenging. A common propensity score approach is exposure-driven propensity score matching, where the best model selection strategy is still unclear. In particular, the situation may require variable selection, while it is still unclear if variables included in the propensity score should be associated with the exposure and the outcome, with either the exposure or the outcome, with at least the exposure or with at least the outcome. Unmeasured confounders, complex correlation structures, and non-normal covariate distributions further complicate matters. We consider the performance of different modeling strategies in …
Marginal hazard ratio estimates in joint frailty models for heart failure trials
2019
Abstract This work is motivated by clinical trials in chronic heart failure disease, where treatment has effects both on morbidity (assessed as recurrent non‐fatal hospitalisations) and on mortality (assessed as cardiovascular death, CV death). Recently, a joint frailty proportional hazards model has been proposed for these kind of efficacy outcomes to account for a potential association between the risk rates for hospital admissions and CV death. However, more often clinical trial results are presented by treatment effect estimates that have been derived from marginal proportional hazards models, that is, a Cox model for mortality and an Andersen–Gill model for recurrent hospitalisations. …
The linear birth and death process under the influence of independently occurring disasters
1989
A population developing according to a time homogeneous linear birth and death process is subjected to an independently occurring random sequence of disasters. Using an embedded Galton-Watson process with random environments explicit results about the probability of extinction and the asymptotic behavior of the process are obtained.
Quantum dissipative dynamics of a bistable system in the sub-Ohmic to super-Ohmic regime
2016
We investigate the quantum dynamics of a multilevel bistable system coupled to a bosonic heat bath beyond the perturbative regime. We consider different spectral densities of the bath, in the transition from sub-Ohmic to super-Ohmic dissipation, and different cutoff frequencies. The study is carried out by using the real-time path integral approach of the Feynman-Vernon influence functional. We find that, in the crossover dynamical regime characterized by damped \emph{intrawell} oscillations and incoherent tunneling, the short time behavior and the time scales of the relaxation starting from a nonequilibrium initial condition depend nontrivially on the spectral properties of the heat bath.
Robust dynamic cooperative games
2009
Classical cooperative game theory is no longer a suitable tool for those situations where the values of coalitions are not known with certainty. Recent works address situations where the values of coalitions are modelled by random variables. In this work we still consider the values of coalitions as uncertain, but model them as unknown but bounded disturbances. We do not focus on solving a specific game, but rather consider a family of games described by a polyhedron: each point in the polyhedron is a vector of coalitions’ values and corresponds to a specific game. We consider a dynamic context where while we know with certainty the average value of each coalition on the long run, at each t…