Search results for "Uncertainty"
showing 10 items of 1010 documents
Temporal evolution of some mortality indicators: Application to Spanish data
2012
[EN] In Spain, as in other developed countries, significant changes in mortality patterns have occurred during the 20th and 21st centuries. One reflection of these changes is life expectancy, which has improved in this period, although the robustness of this indicator prevents these changes from being of the same order as those for the probability of death. If, moreover, we bear in mind that life expectancy offers no information as to whether this improvement is the same for different age groups, it is important and necessary to turn to other mortality indicators whose past and future evolution in Spain we are going to study. These indicators are applied to Spanish mortality data for the pe…
Weighted weak semivalues
2000
We introduce two new value solutions: weak semivalues and weighted weak semivalues. They are subfamilies of probabilistic values, and they appear by adding the axioms of balanced contributions and weighted balanced contributions respectively. We show that the effect of the introduction of these axioms is the appearance of consistency in the beliefs of players about the game.
The multichoice consistent value
2000
We consider multichoice NTU games, i.e., cooperative NTU games in which players can participate in the game with several levels of activity. For these games, we define and characterize axiomatically the multichoice consistent value, which is a generalization of the consistent NTU value for NTU games and of the multichoice value for multichoice TU games. Moreover, we show that this value coincides with the consistent NTU value of a replicated NTU game and we provide a probabilistic interpretation.
Converting retirement benefit into a life care annuity with graded benefits
2016
AbstractThis paper deals with life care annuities, i.e. bundled products comprising a life annuity and long-term care insurance. It aims to assess the cost of converting retirement benefit into a life care annuity with graded benefits using a pre-existing public pay-as-you-go pension scheme. With this objective in mind, we present an actuarial method based on array calculus for valuing this type of life care annuity. The health dynamics of the annuitant rely on a reversible illness-death multistate framework. The paper contains a numerical example in which mortality and disability assumptions are based on data from the USA and Australia, although this should be viewed simply as an illustrat…
Entry with two correlated signals : the case of industrial espionage and its positive competitive effects
2021
Recent advances in information and communication technologies have increased the incentives for firms to acquire information about rivals. These advances may have major implications for market entry because they make it easier for potential entrants to gather valuable information about, for example, an incumbent’s cost structure. However, little theoretical research has actually analyzed this question. This paper advances the literature by extending a one-sided asymmetric information version of Milgrom and Roberts’ (1982) limit pricing model. Here, the entrant is allowed access to an intelligence system (IS) of a certain precision that generates a noisy signal on the incumbent’s cost struct…
The equal collective gains value in cooperative games
2021
AbstractThe property of equal collective gains means that each player should obtain the same benefit from the cooperation of the other players in the game. We show that this property jointly with efficiency characterize a new solution, called the equal collective gains value (ECG-value). We introduce a new class of games, the average productivity games, for which the ECG-value is an imputation. For a better understanding of the new value, we also provide four alternative characterizations of it, and a negotiation model that supports it in subgame perfect equilibrium.
A heuristic method for estimating attribute importance by measuring choice time in a ranking task
2012
The evaluation of a product or service in terms of its attributes has been broadly studied in marketing, management and decision sciences. However, methods for finding important attributes have theoretical and practical limitations. The former are related to the selection of the most appropriate model; the latter are due to large number of variables that affect the specific experimental context. This study aims to present a new methodology that captures attribute preferences from a respondent and in particular, by using the choice time in a ranking task, it allows to indirectly obtain the importance weights for several tested attributes through a simple, fast and inexpensive procedure. More…
Assessing implicit hypotheses in life table construction
2016
AbstractMortality figures are of capital importance for policy-making and public planning, as in forecasting financial provisions in public pension systems. General population life tables are constructed from aggregated statistics, an issue that usually entails adopting some (implicit) assumptions in their construction, such as the hypothesis of closed demographic system or the hypotheses of uniform distributions of death counts (and migration events) by age and calendar year. As microdata have become more abundant and reliable, these hypotheses could be assessed and more assumption-free estimators employed. Using a real database from Spain, we show that the above hypotheses are not appropr…
The Age Structure of Human Capital and Economic Growth
2018
This paper shows that the age structure of human capital is a relevant characteristic to take into account when analysing the role of human capital in economic growth. The effect of an increase in the education of the population aged 40–49 years is found to be an order of magnitude larger than an increase in the education attained by any other age cohort. The results are unlikely to be driven by the age structure of the population, as we find that the effects on growth of the age structure of education and the age structure of population are distinct. The findings are robust across specifications and remain unchanged when we control for long‐delayed effects in human capital or for the exper…
Ruin probabilities in the presence of heavy tails and interest rates
1997
Abstract We study the infinite time ruin probability for the classical Cramer-Lundberg model, where the company also receives interest on its reserve. We consider the large claims case, where the claim size distribution F has a regularly varying tail. Hence our results apply for instance to Pareto, loggamma, certain Benktander and stable claim size distributions. We prove that for a positive force of interest δ the ruin probability ψδ (u) ∼ κδ (1 - F(u)) as the initial risk reserve u→∞. This is quantitatively different from the non-interest model, where ψ(u) ∼ κ (1 – F(y)) dy.