Search results for "Uncertainty"
showing 10 items of 1010 documents
The conditional censored graphical lasso estimator
2020
© 2020, Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature. In many applied fields, such as genomics, different types of data are collected on the same system, and it is not uncommon that some of these datasets are subject to censoring as a result of the measurement technologies used, such as data generated by polymerase chain reactions and flow cytometer. When the overall objective is that of network inference, at possibly different levels of a system, information coming from different sources and/or different steps of the analysis can be integrated into one model with the use of conditional graphical models. In this paper, we develop a doubly penalized inferential procedure for…
What we look at in paintings: A comparison between experienced and inexperienced art viewers
2016
How do people look at art? Are there any differences between how experienced and inexperienced art viewers look at a painting? We approach these questions by analyzing and modeling eye movement data from a cognitive art research experiment, where the eye movements of twenty test subjects, ten experienced and ten inexperienced art viewers, were recorded while they were looking at paintings. Eye movements consist of stops of the gaze as well as jumps between the stops. Hence, the observed gaze stop locations can be thought as a spatial point pattern, which can be modeled by a spatio-temporal point process. We introduce some statistical tools to analyze the spatio-temporal eye movement data, a…
Latin hypercube sampling with inequality constraints
2010
International audience; In some studies requiring predictive and CPU-time consuming numerical models, the sampling design of the model input variables has to be chosen with caution. For this purpose, Latin hypercube sampling has a long history and has shown its robustness capabilities. In this paper we propose and discuss a new algorithm to build a Latin hypercube sample (LHS) taking into account inequality constraints between the sampled variables. This technique, called constrained Latin hypercube sampling (cLHS), consists in doing permutations on an initial LHS to honor the desired monotonic constraints. The relevance of this approach is shown on a real example concerning the numerical w…
Reassessing Accuracy Rates of Median Decisions
2007
We show how Bruno de Finetti''s fundamental theorem of prevision has computable applications in statistical problems that involve only partial information. Specifically, we assess accuracy rates for median decision procedures used in the radiological diagnosis of asbestosis. Conditional exchangeability of individual radiologists'' diagnoses is recognized as more appropriate than independence which is commonly presumed. The FTP yields coherent bounds on probabilities of interest when available information is insufficient to determine a complete distribution. Further assertions that are natural to the problem motivate a partial ordering of conditional probabilities, extending the computation …
A computationally fast alternative to cross-validation in penalized Gaussian graphical models
2015
We study the problem of selection of regularization parameter in penalized Gaussian graphical models. When the goal is to obtain the model with good predicting power, cross validation is the gold standard. We present a new estimator of Kullback-Leibler loss in Gaussian Graphical model which provides a computationally fast alternative to cross-validation. The estimator is obtained by approximating leave-one-out-cross validation. Our approach is demonstrated on simulated data sets for various types of graphs. The proposed formula exhibits superior performance, especially in the typical small sample size scenario, compared to other available alternatives to cross validation, such as Akaike's i…
Can the Adaptive Metropolis Algorithm Collapse Without the Covariance Lower Bound?
2011
The Adaptive Metropolis (AM) algorithm is based on the symmetric random-walk Metropolis algorithm. The proposal distribution has the following time-dependent covariance matrix at step $n+1$ \[ S_n = Cov(X_1,...,X_n) + \epsilon I, \] that is, the sample covariance matrix of the history of the chain plus a (small) constant $\epsilon>0$ multiple of the identity matrix $I$. The lower bound on the eigenvalues of $S_n$ induced by the factor $\epsilon I$ is theoretically convenient, but practically cumbersome, as a good value for the parameter $\epsilon$ may not always be easy to choose. This article considers variants of the AM algorithm that do not explicitly bound the eigenvalues of $S_n$ away …
Multivariate nonparametric estimation of the Pickands dependence function using Bernstein polynomials
2017
Abstract Many applications in risk analysis require the estimation of the dependence among multivariate maxima, especially in environmental sciences. Such dependence can be described by the Pickands dependence function of the underlying extreme-value copula. Here, a nonparametric estimator is constructed as the sample equivalent of a multivariate extension of the madogram. Shape constraints on the family of Pickands dependence functions are taken into account by means of a representation in terms of Bernstein polynomials. The large-sample theory of the estimator is developed and its finite-sample performance is evaluated with a simulation study. The approach is illustrated with a dataset of…
Comparative Evaluation of Community Detection Algorithms: A Topological Approach
2012
International audience; Community detection is one of the most active fields in complex networks analysis, due to its potential value in practical applications. Many works inspired by different paradigms are devoted to the development of algorithmic solutions allowing to reveal the network structure in such cohesive subgroups. Comparative studies reported in the literature usually rely on a performance measure considering the community structure as a partition (Rand Index, Normalized Mutual information, etc.). However, this type of comparison neglects the topological properties of the communities. In this article, we present a comprehensive comparative study of a representative set of commu…
Identifying Causal Effects with the R Package causaleffect
2017
Do-calculus is concerned with estimating the interventional distribution of an action from the observed joint probability distribution of the variables in a given causal structure. All identifiable causal effects can be derived using the rules of do-calculus, but the rules themselves do not give any direct indication whether the effect in question is identifiable or not. Shpitser and Pearl constructed an algorithm for identifying joint interventional distributions in causal models, which contain unobserved variables and induce directed acyclic graphs. This algorithm can be seen as a repeated application of the rules of do-calculus and known properties of probabilities, and it ultimately eit…
Bayesian models for data missing not at random in health examination surveys
2018
In epidemiological surveys, data missing not at random (MNAR) due to survey nonresponse may potentially lead to a bias in the risk factor estimates. We propose an approach based on Bayesian data augmentation and survival modelling to reduce the nonresponse bias. The approach requires additional information based on follow-up data. We present a case study of smoking prevalence using FINRISK data collected between 1972 and 2007 with a follow-up to the end of 2012 and compare it to other commonly applied missing at random (MAR) imputation approaches. A simulation experiment is carried out to study the validity of the approaches. Our approach appears to reduce the nonresponse bias substantially…