Search results for "Uncertainty"
showing 10 items of 1010 documents
Recent applications of point process methods in forestry statistics
2000
Forestry statistics is an important field of applied statistics with a long tradition. Many forestry problems can be solved by means of point processes or marked point processes. There, the "points" are tree locations and the "marks" are tree characteristics such as diameter at breast height or degree of damage by environmental factors. Point pro- cess characteristics are valuable tools for exploratory data analysis in forestry, for describing the variability of forest stands and for under- standing and quantifying ecological relationships. Models of point pro- cesses are also an important basis of modern single-tree modeling, that gives simulation tools for the investigation of forest stru…
Tests for real and complex unit roots in vector autoregressive models
2014
The article proposes new tests for the number of real and complex unit roots in vector autoregressive models. The tests are based on the eigenvalues of the sample companion matrix. The limiting distributions of the eigenvalues converging to the unit eigenvalues turn out to be of a non-standard form and expressible in terms of Brownian motions. The tests are defined such that the null distributions related to eigenvalues +/-1 are the same. The tests for the unit eigenvalues with nonzero imaginary part are defined independently of the angular frequency. When the tests are adjusted for deterministic terms, the null distributions usually change. Critical values are tabulated via simulations. Al…
Stochastic acceleration in generalized squared Bessel processes
2015
We analyze the time behavior of generalized squared Bessel processes, which are useful for modeling the relevant scales of stochastic acceleration problems. These nonstationary stochastic processes obey a Langevin equation with a non-Gaussian multiplicative noise. We obtain the long-time asymptotic behavior of the probability density function for non-Gaussian white and colored noise sources. We find that the functional form of the probability density functions is independent of the statistics of the noise source considered. Theoretical results are in good agreement with those obtained by numerical simulations of the Langevin equation with pulse noise sources.
Stochastic Scheduling of Production Orders Under Uncertainty
2018
This paper attempts to solve the problem of searching minimum production order completion time variants by means of stochastic logical structures with all cost curve descent points and corresponding minimum-cost schedules. The analysis presented in this paper considers scheduling of unique and small batch production, predominantly to order, which accounts for changing requirements of the customer, the complexity and long production process makespan including its technical preparation. Scheduling of production order was performed by means of GAN networks and employed the concept of soft relations. The cost/time relation analysis is based on two-node network models using the cost curve. A new…
The impact of economic and policy uncertainty shocks in Spain
2020
The purpose of this research is to quantify the impact of economic uncertainty shocks in Spain by using a structural vector autoregression (SVAR) approach with data from the first quarter of 2001 u...
Assessment of Modelling Structure and Data Availability Influence on Urban Flood Damage Modelling Uncertainty
2014
Abstract In modelling application, different model structures may be equally reliable in terms of calibration ability but they may produce different uncertainty levels; moreover, available data during model calibration may influence the uncertainty linked to the predictions of the same modelling structure. In the present paper, Bayesian model-averaging was applied to several flood damage estimation models in order to identify the best model combination for urban flooding distribution analysis in Palermo city center (Italy). During the analysis, was taken into account the effect of the available data growth on the model uncertainty with respect to the different combination of models outputs.
On the use of the absorbed depth-dose measurements in the beam calibration of a surface electronic high-dose-rate brachytherapy unit, a Monte Carlo-b…
2019
PURPOSE To evaluate the use of the absorbed depth-dose as a surrogate of the half-value layer in the calibration of a high-dose-rate electronic brachytherapy (eBT) equipment. The effect of the manufacturing tolerances and the absorbed depth-dose measurement uncertainties in the calibration process are also addressed. METHODS The eBT system Esteya® (Elekta Brachytherapy, Veenendaal, The Netherlands) has been chosen as a proof-of-concept to illustrate the feasibility of the proposed method, using its 10 mm diameter applicator. Two calibration protocols recommended by the AAPM (TG-61) and the IAEA (TRS-398) for low-energy photon beams were evaluated. The required Monte Carlo (MC) simulations w…
Systematic Error Correction of a 3D Laser Scanning Measurement Device
2011
International audience; Non-contact measurement techniques using laser scanning have the advantage of fast acquiring large numbers of points. However, compared to their contact-based counterparts, these techniques are known to be less accurate. The work presented in this paper aims at improving the accuracy of these techniques through an error correction procedure based on an experimental process that concerns mechanical parts. The influence of the three parameters defining the relative position and the orientation between the sensor and the surface is studied. The process used to build an experimental global model of error is presented and applied to a typical part composed of planes or sk…
Clustering-based robust three-dimensional phase unwrapping algorithm
2010
Relatively recent techniques that produce phase volumes have motivated the study of three-dimensional (3D) unwrapping algorithms that inherently incorporate the third dimension into the process. We propose a novel 3D unwrapping algorithm that can be considered to be a generalization of the minimum spanning tree (MST) approach. The technique combines characteristics of some of the most robust existing methods: it uses a quality map to guide the unwrapping process, a region growing mechanism to progressively unwrap the signal, and also cut surfaces to avoid error propagation. The approach has been evaluated in the context of noncontact measurement of dynamic objects, suggesting a better perfo…
Error Estimates of Theoretical Models: a Guide
2014
This guide offers suggestions/insights on uncertainty quantification of nuclear structure models. We discuss a simple approach to statistical error estimates, strategies to assess systematic errors, and show how to uncover inter-dependencies by correlation analysis. The basic concepts are illustrated through simple examples. By providing theoretical error bars on predicted quantities and using statistical methods to study correlations between observables, theory can significantly enhance the feedback between experiment and nuclear modeling.